Posted on 12/16/2004 12:11:31 AM PST by Galena Nevada
One all-too-realistic geopolitical nightmare was a weapon of mass destruction terrorist attack on the U.S. West Coast. A nuclear device detonates in a container ship about to enter Long Beach, Calif. News had just broken about pollution of the U.S. food supply, most analysts assumed by transnational terrorism. The U.S. can prevail conventionally anywhere but seems helpless in coping with asymmetrical warfare. In quick succession: • The dollar ceases to be the world's reserve currency. • The shaky coalition governing Iraq collapses and civil war breaks out between Sunnis and Shi'ites. • Fear of the unknown produces a new consensus in the U.S. that global civilization is no longer America's business. • The U.S. debate shifts to adequate city perimeter defenses. • With the U.S. no longer the global cop, the defense budget of almost half a trillion dollars can be drastically pruned and savings transferred to homeland security. • U.S. client states are informed they are on their own. Congress abolishes global aid. • Egypt loses its annual stipend of $2.5 billion; Taiwan and Israel are told they will must fend for themselves. • Social trust becomes the new glue of society — bonding with like-minded neighbors with shared values. • International coalitions dissolve and new ones emerge. China seizes new opportunities for its short- and long-range needs for raw materials in the developing world — from Brazil to sub-Saharan Africa's pockets of mineral wealth. • The United States, Canada and Mexico form a new stand-alone alliance with Britain....
(Excerpt) Read more at washtimes.com ...
At this point, one paragraph seems like a scary and likely scenario...
And the triumphant victory parade and party are interrupted by a one-megaton atomic bomb.
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Somewhat off-point: I heard on CBS radio today that new deep-ocean drilling techniques are expected to yield oil reserves equivalent to 200 years at current U.S. consumption...Where will the Saudis be if this comes to pass?
Exactly. If OBL were to become the elected leader of any nation (an utterly laughable idea, since it would require him coming out of his cave, at which point he would be captured or killed within days), that nation would instantly be invaded by the U.S. due to its new status as the government of Al Qaeda.
This article starts off with a decent argument, but as it goes on, his hypoheses become truly bizarre.
It is not far-fetched. Alliances, economies, and political regimes all swaying like a global house of cards, propping each other up -- just waiting for a puff of wind.
The more likely scenario:
Continued anti-Americanism throughout the world..
U.S. remains in the United Nations, but ends the "honor" of host country.. This after a confrontation concerning membership on the security council and human rights violations.. The UN is forced to move it's headquarters.. France refuses to take them in.. UN is finally situated in Geneva, Switzerland..
Islam takes over in europe.. Muslim immigrants begin to realize that while they are still a minority in most nations, there is no actual military force in europe capable of stopping them.. Immigration increases 100-fold.. european governments fall like bowling pins under the onslaught..
Russia is one of the few "european" nations to resist the influx of Islamic radicalism.. It resists with deadly force and ethnic cleansing..
Indonesia, and other nations in Southeast Asia follow the lead of Russia, and begin their own ethnic cleansing of Muslims.
China refuses sanctuary for muslim refugees.. So does Australia, New Zealand..
Islam's large presence in Africa results in an uneasy truce with non-muslims, but it is only a matter of time before war breaks out there as well..
South America, in the midst of a severe depression, with many of the continent's governments in bankruptcy, is faced with revolutionary forces at every turn. Criminal elements, especially the Drug Traders, take advantage of the situation and finance the rebels, recieving "protection" from government forces in return..
China and North Korea begin a "frenzy" of production, mainly military products.. many are sold to the parties in conflict, mostly to the muslims, but not exclusively..
North Korea is financed by China in order to allow it to increase it's production capacity.. No longer obstructed by the need for food or money, N.Korea becomes one big forced labor camp, turning out missiles and nuclear warheads at a ferocious pace, as well as more standard military hardware.
Southern Europe, now totally in Muslim hands, declares itself an Islamic republic...
Northern Europe and Russia find themselves with their backs against the wall.
The new Islamic Europe declares Jihad against the north.. Their mission: to finish the job and make all of europe muslim..
Mexico has fallen to Marxism.. Canada has fallen to Socialism and declares itself "neutral" concerning all international affairs..
OPEC and the arab states declare an international oil embargo against all non-muslim states.. Oil producing nations of Brazil and Mexico, not surprisingly, join OPEC's embargo..
World War 3 erupts...
Half of U.S. military forces are still in the Middle East or europe..
China/N.Korea launch a massive sea-attack against the western canadian shore.. China's aim: to put 3 million asian soldiers on the North American continent..
U.S. forces put up a strong defence but are overwhelmed by superior numbers, not military force or technology..
Most of China's Naval forces are destroyed. China is undettered. Every available sea-going vessel is packed with soldiers, weapons and ammunition..
Destination: Western Central America,Mexico, America,Canada, Alaska..
Some American Naval forces remain, but are ordered to retreat in order to defend the western U.S. shoreline..
The Chinese/N.Koreans are largely successfull.. A beachhead is established.. Western Canada is unable to put up any real defence.. It barely slows Chinese forces as they advance..
Simultaneously, Chinese forces disembark at the Panama Canal, the shores of Central America and Mexico.
They immeadiately begin to move north into southern and central western Mexico.. There is little resistance..
The U.S. is now threatened from both the North and the South..
Two-thirds of the world's population dies in the next 15 years..
..
Just my opinion.. I might be wrong..
I don't see Central Asia playing out as described.
Kazakhstan would, more than likely, act as a regional cop with funding and support from Russia, China, and America.
I can also see India moving into the region if Pakistan collapsed.
I'll bet on a behind the door deal with Iran and political stability.
They will still be drilling 400 foot wells that produce 15,000 barrels per day and controlling the price of oil.
"China and India form an alliance"
Wonder what the author has not been inhaling.
Oxygen?
In the next year, scientists note just how fat Pacific sharks are.
Also, where will they get this 3-million-man army? China's downsizing their military from 2 million to 1 million (because they can't afford a BIG army and a GOOD army at the same time). Additionally, the Chinese military has a critical role in Chinese domestic security (i.e., in putting down unrest before it becomes revolt). Stripping the homeland to support foreign adventures practically invites the citizenry to overthrow the ChiCom government, which doesn't have an infinitely deep pool of trained manpower.
U.S. forces put up a strong defence but are overwhelmed by superior numbers, not military force or technology..
How? You haven't explained how the Chinese actually get ashore in the Western Hemisphere. Access to the world ocean is solely with the sufferance of the United States Navy.
Most of China's Naval forces are destroyed.
Try "all of them are destroyed."
China is undettered. Every available sea-going vessel is packed with soldiers, weapons and ammunition.. Destination: Western Central America,Mexico, America,Canada, Alaska..
Actual destination: bottom of the Pacific Ocean.
Some American Naval forces remain, but are ordered to retreat in order to defend the western U.S. shoreline..
And the ChiCom invasion fleet gets sunk in the Pacific.
Navies exist to protect shipping. Without any naval force in the Western Hemisphere, the Chinese invasion fleet dies before hitting the coast. Look at the size of the Pacific Basin--a ChiCom invasion fleet would be sailing literally halfway around the world!
Just out of curiousity: When did "stunning ignorance of reality" become an "opinion" worthy of respect?
They'll be in the deepest of deep doo doo...
Not really. This is filled with nonsense the greatest of which is the idea that the US will just slink back in its hole after an atomic attack. That will NEVER happen.
Your scenario is as laughable as the other nonsense.
Or maybe it's a setup to explain why we're dealing with Iran... We don't have choices between good and better -- we have choices between bad and much worse. The world's fright night.
"Vanity. All is vanity"
We know as much about the future as a pig knows about astronomy.
Likely is not scary. Unlikely is scary. This is neither.
I do think, though, that a nuclear incident at Long Beach (or wherever) if it happens, is likely to be a triggering event, but not of neo-isolationism. Of a pair of smoking craters at Mecca and Medina, possibly, but not neo-isolationism.
I do see, broadly speaking, a reliance on regional alliances and a tendency away from grand schemes such as the UN or even, perhaps, the EU. Half a century or a century from now this violent, turbulent time is very possibly going to be remembered as a golden age. That prospect scares the heck out of me.
Boy, thats one hell of a opinion!
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