Posted on 12/13/2004 2:48:24 PM PST by swilhelm73
The Drake equation could give the final value as 1. Or 1 anywhere within a reasonable distance of us. Seeing as we have been really looking for other civilizations only for something like 40 years, it isn't that surprising that even if their are other intragalatic intelligences we haven't found them yet and the distances to other galaxies are so large that our methods of search simply will not find them if they exist.
I think the point made in this article though is still valid.
With so many unanswerable variables the Drake question is of questionable value, and certainly isn't verifiable/disprovable. And the latter is rather troubling from a scientfic perspective.
I can only use our own communicating, intelligent civilization as an example of the sort of proof I am looking for. And it might be a poor exemplar at that. But I find it hard to believe that any other intelligences exist since some evidence of another civilization hasn't yet floated by, been received via radio wave, or even been carved on a rock somewhere yet. Something as majestic as a wrecked spacecraft or as trivial as an empty Betelgeusean soda pop bottle or the classic "take me to your leader" broadcast sought for so long by SETI would be all it would take. The fact that no such detritus has yet been found makes me wonder if such "evidence" will ever be found because it simply doesn't exist.
it isn't that surprising that even if their are other intragalatic intelligences we haven't found them yet and the distances to other galaxies are so large that our methods of search simply will not find them if they exist.
Intelligence is curious. We would have seen or heard something by now (either through the fruit of our active exploration or simply by accident) if there were anything out there to hear or see.
Is it that you don't think that the factors in the Drake equations actually have values, or that you don't think that the product of those values, once measured, would yield the correct answer?
I believe they have values (and they have value as well), but the last condition distilled out of all those values (x number of communicating civilizations) is unproven and therefore bunk. Just because the conditions exist to support something doesn't mean that it logically follows that "something" does indeed exist.
But when you consider the percentage of the galaxy we've explored, whether it be examining rocks or radio waves, we've explored almost none of it. If there were another civilization with a radio luminosity just like Earth's, how close do you think it would have to be for us to see it? If there were a ten thousand alien soda pop bottles on the moon, how many Apollo missions would it take to find one?
A rather good anology is made to the infamous EPA metastudy on ETS in this article.
True. But as I noted earlier, intelligence is curious. We would have been contacted already (or at least scrutinized with the alien equivalent of a kid with a big magnifying glass on a sunny day).
I think we're getting into the realm of semantics here. Bring me proof of ET and I'll have a lot more respect for the Drake Equation.
bttt
But we've only been emitting significant radiation for, oh, sixty or seventy years. Given the turn-around time, that means that, at best, we can't have attracted the attention of anything farther away than 35 light years. The galaxy is 150,000 light years across. Give it time.
Those fargin' bastages! I knew it was them! But everytime I stand on the corner with my sandwich board informing passersby of this fact, the police come along with their Thorazine and everything goes fuzzy for a few days. They think I don't know what they're up to, but its the only way for me to get a warm meal and bed sometimes...
It doesn't suppose any at all.
Excellent, excellent article.
Thanks for the ping, Joe!! Quite an article!
Its fine by me if they show up. I'll just water the soup and slice the roast a bit thinner.
I think you undercut how vast the universe is.
Within our galaxy alone there are roughly 200,000,000,000 stars.
If an advanced civilization visited 10 stars a year, it would still take them twenty billion years to see them all, which is (probably) older then the age of the universe.
You make my point for me. That's just more places for the aforementioned Betelgeusian soda pop bottle to originate from.
Exactly the opposite.
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