Posted on 12/09/2004 1:27:11 PM PST by RWR8189
The race for 2008 is already underway on the Republican side, you just have to know what to look for.
NOT SINCE 1952 has a presidential election lacked a sitting president or vice president as a contestant, and Ike was about as close as one could get to non-official incumbent. Before that, it was the 1928 race, and there, too, Herbert Hoover was, like Ike, a figure of towering popularity. In other words, there has never not been a front-runner in at least one party in the modern scrambles for the presidency. Here is a bit of evidence that the race for 2008 also has a leader, one along the lines of Eisenhower and the Great Engineer.
The National Federation of Republican Women is one of those groups about which not much is ever written, but which functions as one of the circulatory systems of American politics. There's a Republican Women's, Federated in practically every county of every size, and their monthly gatherings are full of the stuff of Tocqueville. These are the precincts of the proverbial "blue haired legions," but also younger, more partisan activists as well.
I make a point of speaking to a couple of chapters of the Federation every year, more to listen than to inform. (These ladies have legislative chairman's reports that go on for an hour--and they take notes.) Last Monday, just before heading off on vacation, I went to Temecula, California to speak to more than 200 women from the Riverside County Republican Women, Federated. After a recap and an assessment of Arnold Schwarzenegger's plans for a special election in 2005 to confront gerrymandering, I announced the first straw poll of 2008. By a show of hands, I gave the ladies--and a handful of men who were their guests--four choices: Senator John McCain, former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Senator Bill Frist, and "other." The results astonished me.
RIVERSIDE COUNTY is as "red" as any county in America, and getting redder. Before I spoke, the group had been entertained by the local home-schooling association's girls' choir, and many of the questions I received concerned illegal immigration and Hillary Clinton's ambitions. In other words--this is to use the title of John Podhoretz's invaluable book on places such as Riverside County, Bush Country.
Giuliani swept more than three-quarters of the votes, with the other three choices receiving smatterings of support. Keep in mind that this isn't an exercise in name identification--these women knew each of the candidates--as well as every possible name in the "other" category. This was an informed choice. I stopped what I was doing, repelled the audience, and then conducted a focus group.
Like many other pundits, I have been wondering whether Giuliani can escape the snows of Iowa and New Hampshire in 2008 given that Pat Robertson won the former in 1988 and Pat Buchanan the latter in 1992. Giuliani is too "moderate" to win the GOP nod, right?
Wrong, if these ladies are to be believed. Among the many praises that gushed forth: decisive, experienced, loyal to "W"--an interesting positive, that--funny and, crucially, tough enough to take on the Clintons. There were many praises for Senator Frist, and some for John McCain, but Giuliani has their hearts--already.
I long ago revealed myself as a single-issue voter: I favor the most conservative Republican in the primary most likely to win the general election. The GOP has never had many of what I call this orientation: principled pragmatists. In fact, a debate is raging even now among bloggers such as Patterico, PrestoPundit, CalBlog, In the Agora, and Interocitor, over the arguments for principled pragmatism that I laid out in my last book.
But if the ladies I spoke with on Monday are any indication of a trend--and there are excellent reasons to conclude that they are--the battle may already be over. For Giuliani to consolidate his position with the center-right would only require some deft appearances during the coming struggles over Supreme Court nominees. If he wades into the fray to help confirm the president's nominees, his personal views on abortion will matter far less than if he is absent from these fights. He would also find it useful to get on the side of allowing the people a vote on the defense of marriage amendment through the process of state ratification or denial of ratification to a proposed amendment.
Senator Frist seems to have sensed that the race for the 2008 nomination is already launched, and has responded with tough stands on the "nuclear option" for the judicial nomination process and a rousing defense of the Boy Scouts. Very sharp moves that reflect he is in this for good. The same cannot be said for Senator Hagel who only seems to make news when throwing stones at Bush or the Iraq effort. Bush is the unquestioned hero in the hearts of the activists, and while 2008 is a long way away, that course is much shorter than it used to be because impressions are made early.
A FINAL NOTE: There is little upside in being coy anymore. The candidates will almost all blow off the primary caps and raise money as Dean and Bush did in 2004, and that means an early launch in fundraising and organization. Candor is increasingly a valued trait, and the fan dance of yesteryear seems trite. I have blogged on the need for would-be nominees to scout out and sign the next generation of internet talent, especially in the area of fundraising and grassroots communication, and the Shrum Primary of 2003 may be replaced by the Ruffini Primary of 2005. We'll know for sure who is serious when the candidates launch their blogs.
I wouldn't be surprised to see a Giuliani blog up and running in January. The ladies of the Riverside Republican Women Federated would welcome it.
Hugh Hewitt is the host of a nationally syndicated radio show, and author most recently of If It's Not Close, They Can't Cheat: Crushing the Democrats in Every Election and Why Your Life Depends Upon It. His daily blog can be found at HughHewitt.com.
We need to recognize that the top priority in 2008 may not be to push a conservative agenda, but to prevent Hillary from winning. At the present, Rudy seems the best bet to derail Hillary's express.
There's only one good candidate for Pres.: Congressman Roy Blunt-R Springfield, MO (House Majority Whip)
Unless one's standard-bearer is electable, being staunchly conservative is an exercise in futility.
Well taht depends, he's been real happy to back liberals and RINOs in recent years. Arnold Schwarzenegger and Richard Riordan come to mind.
I agree. Look at the kind of support he's getting with the label "pro-abortion" -- his support in the GOP would skyrocket if he switched his position. It's happened before.
This needs repeating on a daily basis.
I wouldn't be suprised if Giuliani changed some of his positions on some social issues for the base. In order to win in NYC, even Repubs have to be more leberal than elsewhere.
Would Giuliani be a little more acceptable if he altered a few of his positions?
I would vote for Giuliani in a heartbeat. He did wonders for NYC.
He threw Arafat out of the UN during a party because he's a terrorist and he told the Saudis to stuff their check after the 9/11 attack. Giuliani took on the mob.
He has cajones the size of the Jupiter's moons...
You mean again - the lesser of the two evils. Sorry but I'm not gonna buy that any more.
Why don't you just sell your soul to the Devil?
Rudy would derail Hillary in a heartbeat.
Condi could be competition, too.
If Giuliani ran against her in NY, she would lose her senate seat in a heartbeat as well. Even in NY.
IMHO the field should be reduced to governors who are strong vote getters and like Bush on judges. I'd give Guiliani a pass on the governor bit, since NYC is more populous than many or most states - but not on judges.The other two, Frist and McCain, aren't governors but legislators and shouldn't be considered - and I certainly don't want an author of McCain-Feingold naming judges.
Guiliani has been going around the country stumping for Bush, and in the process has undoubtedly amassed a strong base of chits he can call in in a run for the nomination. But my humble opinion is that there are governors out there who we could trust to name good judges - just none that are presently considered on the A-list. And at this time 8 years ago GWB was nothing like a shoo-in for the Republican nomination.
One of the best, if not the best, credentials of any Republican governor is that of the brother of the sitting president. Florida has not had a president come out of it yet, and it is a swing state which would not be in doubt if he were on the national ticket.
As to being the president's brother and the former president's son, what is that? Doesn't make him foreign-born, or a felon, or under the age of 35 years, does it? Do we pass on someone who has everything else we want, just because his name isn't "anyone but Bush"? Frankly, I don't see it. He says he won't run. If he doesn't, he would be the heaviest VP nominee I can remember, with serious appeal to the base and to Hispanics.
The second you develop an ounce of political pragmatism and reality, we'll talk....
Rudy could do a lot by picking a running mate to balance out the ticket-somebody like Rick Santorum, perhaps?
tkathy: If the Dims try to go after Rudy's personal life, all he has to do is remind the voters of who they had as their leader for eight years.
votelife: Would Rudy's personal views on abortion affect any judicial nominee choices he might make? I think he would be smart enough to move more to the right on this issue.
It's too early to start fighting the purists...Have a Merry Christmas.
exactly!! the ALBINO RINO HEWITT never meets a conservative that can win, and he runs down any conservative that isn't a Rockefeller Country Club Repub like himself... he still sees himself sunning on the beach with Richard Nixon, that true conservative that brought us Price Controls, killed the gold standard and loved playing to the Chinese Commies!
Hewitts an embarrassment to the Republican Party most of the time... definitely a go along, get along whatever guy...
Precisely
The relationship. Both Carey and Rudy are Catholic educated guys from Brooklyn. The nuns and brothers' education leaves a mark. So does the neighborhood sense of right and wrong. I don't think it's too far a stretch for Rudy to come round, especially on late term, and to do so in a way that does not look transparent.
Hugh was out there campaigning 24/7 before the last election. He is loaded with intellect and charisma and is wonderful to listen to.
I have been telling anyone who will listen that I will actively work against anti-gun Rudy. If he somehow gets the nomination, lots of people down south and out west will be staying home on Election Day 2008.
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