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Good analysis. I still have more faith in Sanford, though. With the right running mate he could pick up a blue state or two-in fact he has potential to be another Reagan if he plays his cards right.

What about Tim Pawlenty?

I would handicap Pawlenty just a bit better than Sanford. Simply because he is Governor in a state that was blue this year. He would win Minnesota by default (hell, even Walter Mondale won it in '84!) That is the only difference I see in him and Sanford. Of course, that difference is really 10 more reasons in the electoral college.

Reagan was an enigma. He was a popular Two-Term Governnor in California who has run the screen actors guild and been active in trying to root the socialists out of Hollywood... he has name recognition, was a glib and easy speaker, the camera liked him and he'd lived and breathed politics most of his life -- does everyone forget he, too, was a Democrat at one time (who like Zell Miller said they left him behind).

I see a lot more Reagan in Rudy than anyone else... the personal life is the main difference. Rudy was a tough, take no prisoners, prosecutor and I give him huge marks for how he cleaned up New York (even though it made him very unpopular at the time)... Now we're watching another Republican (more Dem than GOP) dismantle everything Rudy accomplished while Mayor. If President Bush manages to get three or four new justices on the court over the next four years it's not going to make a huge difference if someone sitting in the oval office is pro-life or not.