STRATFOR: Germany: Merkel vs. Multiculturalism

STRATFOR ^ | December 07, 2004 1951 GMT

[Axion]

WARNING: Do not embarrass yourself by interepting this as an editorial and posting your ill-founded objections to its implications. It is a four cornered piece of analysis, nothing more. Ax.

Summary

After being re-elected leader of Germany's opposition Christian Democratic Union on Dec. 6, Angela Merkel spoke out against multiculturalism and condemned Berlin's attempts to integrate ethnic communities. Merkel's statements echo the sentiments of a certain earlier German government, and the re-emergence of right-wing parties there could portend another shift in the country's policies toward foreigners.

Analysis

Angela Merkel, leader of Germany's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) Party, lambasted Germany's policies on multiculturalism during a party conference Dec. 6 in Dusseldorf. Calling multiculturalism a resounding failure, Merkel repeated her opposition to Turkey's membership in the European Union and emphasized patriotic and conservative values.

While popular support for the CDU has dropped in recent months, Merkel's statements, combined with the increasing support enjoyed by other nationalistic, right-wing parties, are ominous. If the CDU and the National Democratic Party (NPD), another right-wing group, are able to consolidate their power in the government, they will change the tide of German policies on immigration and the rights of ethnic minorities.

The CDU, formed after World War II, espouses a conservative, center-right platform. It draws support from all economic classes and trumpets a return to patriotism and "traditional" German values. More recently, the CDU has called for economic reforms to bring Germany out of nearly a decade of slow growth and high unemployment. Its platform also calls for controls to limit immigration and promotes the idea of a "leitkultur," or German "guiding culture."

With support for Germany's ruling Social Democratic Party (SPD) falling, the CDU might be able to capitalize on its near-equal popularity and gain the chancellorship in just a few years. The SPD holds a razor-thin parliamentary majority of three seats more than the CDU in the Bundestag, while the CDU controls the less-powerful Bundesrat, which often blocks SPD legislation. To be fair, support for the CDU also has fallen. An October poll by the independent Infratest institute showed support for the party decreased from 50 percent in March to 40 percent in October (the SPD fell from 30 percent to 23 percent).

While the CDU appears to be losing a small amount of its political clout, Germany's far-right parties are gaining more. In September, regional elections resulted in gains for the National Democratic Party of Germany (NPD), a neo-Nazi, anti-Semitic group that won nearly 10 percent of the vote in the state of Saxony, while the German People's Union (DVU), another right-wing party, won 6 percent of the vote in Brandenburg. After the victories, the NPD and DVU announced they would link up to form a right-wing "national alliance" in hopes of securing the 5 percent of the vote necessary to win seats in the Bundestag.

While Stratfor is not suggesting Germany is soon to see brownshirts on every street corner, the gains made by right-wing parties echo a period in German history when the rise of the right had disastrous results. Adolph Hitler and his Nazi Party won power at a time when Germany was plagued by high unemployment, economic depression and the destruction of its military. Germany posts joblessness of more than 10 percent, growth of under 2 percent of gross domestic product and enormous cutbacks in military spending. There is another similarity: Germany in the 1930s had a minority Jewish population of around 500,000 -- just under 1 percent of the country's total -- that it blamed for all its troubles. Germany in 2004 has a foreign-born population of about 7 million (of whom an estimated 3 million are Muslim), which is around 9 percent of the country.

Right-wing German parties already have proposed several measures to limit immigration and the influence of minorities on German culture. Although the SPD managed to pass a reform bill in 2000 that made it easier for immigrants to become naturalized Germans, the CDU -- should it wrest power away from the ruling party -- could try to limit the power of those reforms. During the CDU Party conference Dec. 7, several initiatives on immigration and ethnic integration were adopted. These include limiting the actions of Islamic leaders, requiring immigrants to learn German and take German culture classes and imposing sanctions against those who refuse.

Although Stratfor will not accuse Merkel of being a Nazi sympathizer, her statements at the conference are reminiscent of Hitler's. Merkel said in a 2004 interview, "The notion of multiculturalism has fallen apart. Anyone coming [to Germany] must respect our constitution and tolerate our Western and Christian roots." As Hitler wrote in Mein Kampf, "a State may be called bad if, in spite of the existence of a high cultural level, it dooms to destruction the bearers of that culture by breaking up their racial uniformity."

Indeed, the CDU itself is not as troubling as what it could inspire. The multiculturalism encouraged by German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder is something very recent and hardly resonates with most Germans. The era of German political leadership apologizing for being German is over, and it is not unimaginable that far-right parties could capitalize on their recent gains to move the country back into a xenophobic frame of mind.

[BobL]

"There is another similarity: Germany in the 1930s had a minority Jewish population of around 500,000 -- just under 1 percent of the country's total -- that it blamed for all its troubles. Germany in 2004 has a foreign-born population of about 7 million (of whom an estimated 3 million are Muslim), which is around 9 percent of the country"

I guess the difference is that the Germans don't need to fabricate an enemy - they got a real enemy this time.

I don't know why Stratfor seems intent on treating Ms. Merkels as the second coming of Hitler, but may they have some hidden love of these monsters themselves.

[hinckley buzzard]

Well. This "analysis" seems to have more than four corners, whatever that means. They are reaching way beyond the data in their search for Hitler's second coming. Pretty lame piece actually.

[BroncosFan]

It overreaches. So far, I just see the CDU engaging in the all-American, politically shrewd tactic of co-opting a minor party's "big issue" in order to prevent them from draining off your votes in the next election. Its closer to Clinton emphasizing deficit cutting in '96 to garner support from Perotistas than it is to Hitler's early 30s Jew-baiting.

[Billthedrill]

Now, that comparison to Hitler was a bit below STRATFOR's usual standards, IMHO. It is rather a different thing to insist on racial purity as Hitler did and insist that newcomers respect one's culture and history, as Merkel did.

That said, an interesting analysis. A rightist coalition incorporating some radical elements is not beyond imagination, and there we do see a parallel with Weimar Germany. I will leave it to German FReepers to comment on just how likely that is, and what the SDP is likely to do in reply.

[swilhelm73]

More BS from Stratfor.

Comparing CDU to NAZIs is about as off the wall as comparing Republicans to them.

While the German do have a neo-nazi problem, along with all of old Europe, calling for significant change to the nation's foolish open borders policy is in no way racist.

[BobL]

Agereed - this is really making Stratfor look like lapdogs for the Muslims.

[Southack]

"Merkel's statements echo the sentiments of a certain earlier German government, and the re-emergence of right-wing parties there could portend another shift in the country's policies toward foreigners."

This is one of Stratfor's better analysis pieces (though any use of "Hitler" is bound to be widely misinterpreted).

...Now if they could only figure out that it is Germany who is likewise attempting a European powerplay by breaking the Ukraine off from Russia to move into the new EU-only military being formed (now in charge of Bosnia "peacekeeping" in fact).

[swilhelm73]

Well Stratfor is made up of New Republic type Leftists. I expect them to bash Bush, the WoT, and conservatism relentlessly...but...this Hitler stuff is way below their normal crud.

[BobL]

I disagree - this is a despicable analysis. If you mention Hitler and the Nazis through the 'analysis', then, by default, your are clearly making the comparison.

The Germans have learned their lesson from the 30s and 40s, it is time to give them a break. Wanting a group of thugs to start behaving (or leave) is NOT the same as sending millions to death camps. Enough is Enough! Let them get their country straightened out. For heaven's sake, we need them as allies (and they were great during the Cold War).

[Southack]

"I disagree - this is a despicable analysis. If you mention Hitler and the Nazis through the 'analysis', then, by default, your are clearly making the comparison."

Yes, it's problematic to use such terms because their use evokes knee-jerk opposition to the position of the author.

The author should have used WW1, not WW2, to support Stratfor's point.

Serbian immigration in WW1 was a hotbutton issue, and you can use that example to make the same point as required for the above analysis without resorting to using Hitler and WW2.

Yes, Germany is uttering nationalistic noises again. Yes, it is looking for groups to demonize (in WW1: Serbs, in WW2, Jews, today "immigrants"), and yes, Germany is interfering in Bosnia (with the new EU peacekeeping force), Iraq (politically only, one presumes), and in the Ukraine.

Yes, striking parallels should be drawn, but they are better drawn by using WW1 terms rather than the off-limits words of WW2.

Clearly Germany is making a European powerplay. It's no accident that Germany supported the NATO war on Serbia in 1999 (reminiscent of Austria's 1914 invasion of Serbia). It's no accident that Germany is demonizing "immigrants" today. It's no accident that Germany is using Iraq and Bosnia to minimize NATO while simultaneously building the new EU-only military (that leaves both Russia and the U.S. out), and it's certainly no accident that Germany's fingerprints are all over the recent Ukrainian election (perhaps even Stratfor will figure out the obvious by the 4th of their 4 part analysis, of which this is part 1, I presume).

All of the above are part of a trend, not random accidents or coincidences. That's what needs to be said, not that the CDU (which has good, decent, pro-Jew, pro-American people running it) are somehow Hitler-esque. Such phrases diminish the analysis and the underlying points that need to be made.

That being said, it's one of Stratfor's better works. Stratfor has fallen from mighty heights since its 1998 peak. It was completely in the tank for the 1999 Balkan war, and it never recovered...though this piece is a step in the right direction.

[BobL]

Pretty thoughtful on your part - I'll yield at this point.

[FreedomSurge]

"Germany in the 1930s had a minority Jewish population of around 500,000 -- just under 1 percent of the country's total -- that it blamed for all its troubles. "

Blamed of all of its troubles??? These people must be very ignorant of history or have a hidden agenda.

I don't believe they are ignorant of history.

[Malesherbes]

I try to keep up with German affairs, and if you leave out all references to Hitler and the Nazis, there are some facts in this "analysis." The larger fact, however, is that Germany under Hitler had a burgeoning population. Germans today face a demographic meltdown, don't reproduce, and couldn't man an army of any size if them wanted to.

[jamesissmall218]

I'm sorry, but comparing Angela Merkel and the CDU to the Nazi's is absolutely ridiculous. They are a mainstream, right of center party. If Bush said the things about immigrants that Merkel did, everyone on FR would be cheering. As evidenced in the Netherlands, unchecked immigration, especially from Islamic countries, is destroying Europe's western, Christian based culture (as is European secularism). There is nothing ominous about Merkel saying that the Muslims will not integrate and that immigration should be limited, becasue the facts back it up. Many Muslim immigrants are a danger with terror links, and they live in their own little enclaves throughout Europe refusing to learn the language or respect the culture. This is compared to the Jews back in the 1930's, who were well integrated and productive members of society who were made false scapegoats by Hitler. That said, I do agree that these 'far-right' parties in Germany are a danger. There is nothing conservative at all about them - they are pretty much fascist and are a danger, and they are generating strength because of pent up anger over the stagnant economy and feelings of Germans losing their identity. If they continue to gain strength, there may well be a problem in the future.

[BobL]

Excellent points. The Christian Democrats basically saved Germany during the Cold War, because they sided with us, rather than the Soviets. Never were they some kind of second coming of Hitler

One more point to consider. If the media and groups like Stratfor insist on calling everyone who objects to immigration or who want existing immigrants to assimilate, in effect - Nazis, then mainstream parties like the CDU will be afraid bring up the issue.

This WILL leave the far right wing parties as the only viable alternative for people concerned about these issues - and WILL, sooner than later, bring these parties to power.

The bottom line to the liberals in Europe (and here for that matter)...

STOP STIFLING DEBATE - because that WILL bring back the ovens that you claim to not want.