Brief Note on Turnout in Louisiana Runoff Election Today: Looks Low

[StJacques]

For those of you who may not be aware of it, the final makeup of the House of Representatives will be decided today in Louisiana. We have two runoff elections to decide representation for Louisiana's 3rd and 7th congressional districts. Both of these seats are currently open. In the 3rd congressional district where Republican Billy Tauzin, Jr. is retiring there is a runoff election between his son, Republican Billy Tauzin, III of Chackbay and Democrat Charles Melancon of Napoleonville. In the 7th district, where Democrat Chris John vacated the seat to run for the U.S. Senate -- unsuccessfully -- Republican Charles Boustany of Lafayette is facing Democrat Willie Landry Mount of Lake Charles.

I just returned from my precinct, where a total of 353 votes had been cast out of a total of just under 1100 registered in the precinct with about one and a half hours left before the polls close. If I am to make a prediction about what the final turnout will be, I will say it will fall under 50%. I have just finished a phone call with a good friend who has been working the phone banks today and he tells me that this is pretty much the case elsewhere in the district, though it does seem that turnout will be slightly higher in Lafayette Parish, where I live, which may be good news for Boustany. And we are both guessing that a low turnout is to be expected in the 3rd congressional district as well.

Louisiana is somewhat different than many other areas of the country in that a high turnout seems to favor Republican candidates while a low turnout favors the Democrats. I am not pleased about this, though I still feel very confident that Boustany will win in the 7th district. I am less confident about Billy Tauzin III's chances, though I rate them as pretty good just the same.

I just thought you might benefit from some early news.