Gartner: Half of US IT operations jobs to vanish

MacWorld.com ^ | 12-2-04 | Patrick Thibodeau

[soccer_linux_mozilla]

In an eyebrow-raising forecast, Gartner Inc. researchers said they believe that as many as 50 percent of the IT operational jobs in the U.S. could disappear over the next two decades because of improvements in data center technologies.

Donna Scott, a Gartner analyst, said IT workers face a situation similar to that in the manufacturing field, which has lost jobs over the past several decades as automation has improved. Similarly, standardization of IT infrastructure, applications and processes will lead to productivity improvements and a major shift in skill needs, she said.

"There will be more room to automate, and that means there will be reduced labor cost," said Scott. "This is a long-term change."

Gartner calls this change "real-time infrastructure," which involves service-oriented architectures, the elimination of communications barriers and dynamic alignment of IT with business priorities. Technologies enabling the shift have less need for human intervention because they are more intelligent and can automatically provision services and self-heal.

IT operations, which encompass areas such as systems administration, incident response and change management, today account for about 55 percent of an IT department's labor cost, said Scott, who spoke at the Stamford, Conn.-based research firm's annual data center conference here in Las Vegas. But as companies improve automation, IT operations become "more like a factory," said Scott. Demand will grow for employees who have IT architecture skills as well as those with business and customer-liaison knowledge. Project management, for instance, will rise in terms of the percentage of IT labor costs, she said.

[Walkin Man]

...researchers said they believe that as many as 50 percent of the IT operational jobs in the U.S. could disappear over the next two decades...

...and reappear in India!

[reagandemo]

Let me see started in IT got downsized moved to software development and job got outsourced to India. Hummm they will always have a need for garbage collection.

[reagandemo]

"As long as they don't come after us keypunchers....." Don't look behind you something is catching up.

[Dilbert56]

As long as they don't come after us keypunchers.....

Don't look behind you something is catching up.

Actually, the last time I touched a keypunch was 1983. My elder daughter's birth announcements were sent on punch cards. They were anachronistic even back then.

[jdm]

"We will always need good IT people to keep our systems clear and running. New operating updates? More bugs, viruses, and other things to go wrong. Can't be helped."

I'm a big fan of having the individual, when possible, install, monitor his/her own system. I ran into problems with my PC lately and received wonderful advice from many folks. I only ask for help as a last resort. Otherwise, I research what I need to do.

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[glorgau]

Hopefully, this is true. The large part of IT operations are akin to having telephone operators plugging cords into a switchboard. The work can be automated and done better, faster and more securely. For instance, provisioning a network of thousands of computer should _not_ take thousands of "support" personnel.

For myself, I'd much rather be working on something interesting than doing the rote, no-nothing work that comprises much of IT today.

[DouglasKC]

Get out while the getting is good. I've been in the field for 20 years and am getting out to start my own business...non IT.

[Betis70]

>>a need for garbage collection.

Nah, Java, Perl, Ruby and Python do that for you automatically nowadays. Memory leaks are a thing of the past (*snicker*)!



Oh wait, maybe you meant regular garbage (as in household refuse).

[liberty_lvr]

It's Bush's Fault!!

Wink, wink...

[justrepublican]

Technologies enabling the shift have less need for human intervention because they are more intelligent and can automatically provision services and self-heal.

More inteligent than human's ? Then way does it need us at all ?

[KoRn]

As long as their are idiot users out there IT jobs aren't going away!! I'm not saying all users are idiots, but most of them are hehe.

[brewcrew]

Anybody interested in buying one of these here handsome buggy whips?

[JFK_Lib]

The reduction in IT is bsed on current trends in improved efficiency without addressing the fact that the more you can do, the more customers want you to do.

Forth generation languages make product so fast it is incredible when compared to 10 years ago. But customers want far more than they did with character based terminals and keypunch entry.

It balances out.

The only thing that bothers me is the export of existing jobs to places like India, China, etc. We gave China our industrial jobs because we were told that they would be replaced by information jobs. OK, so what is supposed to replace information level jobs?

[been_lurking]

Then way does it need us at all ?

Somebody has to take it out of the shipping box and plug it into the wall. (But they are probably working on a way to automate that as well.)

[rit]

While most outsourced occupations have lasted at least one generation, IT is not one of them. Although this is frustrating for recent grads and even seasoned veterans (10+years), it is not unexpected.

[dfwgator]

The reduction in IT is bsed on current trends in improved efficiency without addressing the fact that the more you can do, the more customers want you to do.

BINGO!!

[SoDak]

hehehe...self-healing.

[reagandemo]

I really don't have a problem with a trade being made obsolete. What I do have a problem with is a company looking at profits on a short term basis i.e. making their bottom look good for each individual quarter they are in. Company A moves enough jobs over to India then the size of the tax base if they are selling to the public sector decreases or if they are B to C the consumer buying power will decrease. Either way they are really not looking at the long term effects and their sales will suffer.

[Puppage]

Even if you leave, the toolbox is yours to keep

[Senator_Blutarski]

Of course, this is the same Gartner that declared the mainframe computer "dead" in 1991.