Ukraine crisis exposes Putin's plans

BBC News ^ | BBC News

[anonymoussierra]

The Kremlin is maintaining a wall of silence on Ukraine, apart from saying the political crisis must be resolved without foreign pressure.

However, Russia is clearly watching the events with intense interest.

What happens in Ukraine matters a great deal to Moscow, not least because this could result in another foreign policy blunder for President Vladimir Putin.

The Russian leader visited Ukraine twice during the election campaign, in order to support the pro-Russian candidate, Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych.

Mr Putin was also the first foreign leader to congratulate Mr Yanukovych when he was initially declared the winner of the now disputed election.

Russia's blatant intervention makes a mockery of President Putin's accusation that the West is meddling in Ukraine and his statement that no-one should interfere in the electoral process.

The Mayor of Moscow, Yuri Luzhkov, fuelled more controversy when he was welcomed at a pro-Yanukovych rally in eastern Ukraine at the weekend.

Mr Luzhkov's attendance was strongly criticised by Yulia Tymoshenko, the firebrand aide of the Ukrainian opposition leader, Viktor Yushchenko.

"Politicians in Russia should simply watch what is happening. Ukrainians can find their own decision, and do what their country needs", said Ms Tymoshenko.

Post-Soviet imperialism?

At the heart of President Putin's foreign policy is a desire to formally maintain Russia's sphere of influence in the Commonwealth of Independent States - the countries that made up most of the Soviet Union.

However, writing in The Moscow Times this week, Nikolai Petrov of the Carnegie Moscow Centre argued that Mr Putin's actions had led to a rise of anti-Russian sentiment in Ukraine and around the world.

"The Kremlin's enormous investment in the Ukrainian election not only failed to strengthen but actually weakened Russia's standing on the world stage", said Mr Petrov.

"This intervention disrupted the Kremlin's ongoing attempt to integrate post-Soviet space, which even before this election, was widely viewed as neo-imperialistic."

Nevertheless, on the domestic front, Mr Putin has moved to place more power in the hands of the Kremlin since the Beslan school siege in the summer, and without much international censure.

The Russian leader is still regarded by the West as an important ally, particularly in the war on terror.

While Ukraine has made no secret of its desire for closer European integration and membership of Nato, President Putin is known to be extremely wary of an enlarged European Union on his doorstep.

Instability

In this highly-charged atmosphere, Mr Putin has been accused by his critics of trying to split Ukraine.

Some in the mainly Russian-speaking east of the country are opposed to any move towards Europe, and have been demanding greater autonomy.

Russia, with important EU trade links in mind, won't want to widen the current rift in EU-Russian relations by aggravating Ukraine's instability.

However, it would not be the first time that Moscow had encouraged separatism in the countries of the former Soviet Union, notably in Georgia and Moldova.

So, might Russia intervene militarily in Ukraine?

The respected Russian defence analyst, Pavel Felgenhauer, thinks such a scenario is highly unlikely.

"Putin's Russia does not have the military power to send in the tanks and dominate foreign countries", says Mr Felgenhauer.

"We cannot even bring Chechnya into line. What could we hope to achieve in Ukraine, with its rebellious population of nearly 50 million?"

[Just mythoughts]

"At the heart of President Putin's foreign policy is a desire to formally maintain Russia's sphere of influence in the Commonwealth of Independent States - the countries that made up most of the Soviet Union."


The old wise saying fits so very well "reap what you sow", guess the harvest is near but maybe out of season.

[bd476]

Thanks for the ping here, Meek. Very interesting developments.

[Grzegorz 246]

He didn't defend socialism. In my opinion there is also a little difference between communism and socialism.
Do you think that for example Mr Tony Blair is a communist ?

[Lukasz]

All true about Russia

Although some of them have a bit more that 1% of popularity, then call them MAIN parties it is exaggeration. Greens!? How much popular they are? 0,000001%?? Don’t be silly!

Main political parties:

Agrarnaja Partija Rossii (Agrarian Party of Russia): left-wing agrarian party. Edinaja Rossija (United Russia): personalist pro-Putin party. Edinenie (Unity)

Jabloko - Rossijskaja Demokratièeskaja Partija (Apple, Russian Democratic Party): liberal democratic party, affiliated to the Liberal International.

Kommunistièeskaja Partija Rossiiskoi Federacii (Communist Party of the Russian Federation): communist party.

Liberalno-Demokratièeskaja Partija Rossii (Liberal Democratic Party of Russia): nationalist populist party.

Narodnaja Partija Rossijskoj Federacii (People's Party of the Russian Federation): social-democratic party.

Partija VozroŽdenija Rossii (Party of Russia's Rebirth): left of centre party.

Rodina - Narodno-Patriotièeskij Sojuz (Motherland - National Patriottic Union): left-wing populist party.

Rossijskaja Partija žizni (Russian Party of Life): centrist pro-Putin party.

Rossijskaja Partija Pensionerov (Russian Pensioners' Party): progressive pensioners party

Rossijskaja Partija Spravedlibosti (Russian Party of Social Justice): progressive party

Social-Demokatièeskaja Partija Rossii (Social Democratic Party of Russia): social democratic party

Sojuz Pravich Syl (Union of Right Forces): conservative liberal party, affiliated to the International Democratic Union.

žiznienšèiny Rossii (Women of Russia): feminist party

[jb6]

If these are what you consider left: Posted by Lukasz to jb6 On News/Activism 12/02/2004 8:55:35 AM PST · 24 of 24 All true about Russia Although some of them have a bit more that 1% of popularity, then call them MAIN parties it is exaggeration. Greens!? How much popular they are? 0,000001%?? Don’t be silly! Main political parties: Agrarnaja Partija Rossii (Agrarian Party of Russia): left-wing agrarian party. Edinaja Rossija (United Russia): personalist pro-Putin party. Edinenie (Unity) Jabloko - Rossijskaja Demokratièeskaja Partija (Apple, Russian Democratic Party): liberal democratic party, affiliated to the Liberal International. Kommunistièeskaja Partija Rossiiskoi Federacii (Communist Party of the Russian Federation): communist party. Liberalno-Demokratièeskaja Partija Rossii (Liberal Democratic Party of Russia): nationalist populist party. Narodnaja Partija Rossijskoj Federacii (People's Party of the Russian Federation): social-democratic party. Partija VozroŽdenija Rossii (Party of Russia's Rebirth): left of centre party. Rodina - Narodno-Patriotièeskij Sojuz (Motherland - National Patriottic Union): left-wing populist party. Rossijskaja Partija žizni (Russian Party of Life): centrist pro-Putin party.

The you are trully out of your mind. Go clean up your own leftest hole in the map before you start this propaganda BS. Poland is one of the leftest countries in Europe, electing the same men who ruled you under the curtain. Oh and for your information, all the communists and leftests won less then 25% of the total vote.

I'm presently laughing at you, to bad I can't add video here.

[Lukasz]

Difference between communism and socialism is BIG. First I must try explain you situation in Poland and others former communist countries. As I know in European former communist countries every government ALWAYS lost next elections, no matter left or right wing. After fall of communism people were disappointed that right wing government isn’t able to work as good as they expected. Corruption was big, unemployment higher and higher, and politicians were involved in several all kind of affairs. That is why people voted for socialists but situation was similar and next time they again voted for right wing. Then situation was a bit better but still not enough and again we had changes in the top. That is like this mechanism works, generally we have progress and now situation is a LOT better than in 1989. Actually we have socialist government, but we have election in next year and already we know that right wing will win. That is characteristic we always know with side will win the elections, it is always opposition. I share ideas of right wing and I’m conservative, but this doesn’t means that I like right wing politicians cause I don’t like them. I voted always for right wing only because theoretically they should be better than leftist. But generally it is even good that we always changing right to left and left to right because we have now competition between those two and competition it is “mother of progress”. Do you think that we have socialism in Poland because we have socialistic government NOW? It is impossible to instill political system in country where socialist rule only four years and then is time for right wing government.

Now I want to compare today’s “socialism” with communism before 1989 in Poland.

Communism
No free speech
No unemployment, no need for social grants
No free market
Private ownership was minimal.
Only one party, repression towards opposition
Empty stores…
Low taxes or even period without some taxes
No independent of courts, controlled by communists
No free travel, sometimes only to other communist countries, for oppositionists complete ban.
Medias are all in hands of the commies
If we would have internet in those times, it would be banned.
Not independent country, all important decision directly from Moscow
Propaganda not only in medias but also in schools.
We were in Warsaw Pact because Moscow decided that we must be there.
Generally people don’t respect politicians


“Socialism”
free speech
Unemployment, In western Europe high social grants, in Poland minimal social grants
free market
Today only few firms still are under control of country and it is only question of time when they will sell it.
Many parties, no repression
Stores full of goods
In western Europe high taxes, in Poland medium taxes.
Independent courts
Generally free travel, except of third world countries and USA
Private medias depends of visions of their owners
Free internet
Independent country
Propaganda on medias but not communistic but capitalistic. Schools free of propaganda.
We are in NATO because we wanted to be there.
Generally people don’t respect politicians


As you see difference is BIG I hope that I wrote all important facts.

[Lukasz]

Btw No need to use translators, I rather understand everything when I’m reading. All English-Polish online translators are VERY BAD and in fact I understand a lot better on English.

[LibertyRocks]

Don't get me wrong Gregorz. I didn't suggest that he did. As I said it was an honest question meant to foster greater understanding. I hope it didn't come off as being disrespectful.

[LibertyRocks]

Thank you Lukasz, I really appreciate your information. You are right - it's good there is competition of ideas.

I once had a discussion with a man who claimed he was the socialist candidate here in the U.S. (On a Yahoo! Chat). The way I put it to him is this: Socialism sounds great! Everyone sharing, nice big happy family! (LOL) The only problem is that people being people there will always be someone or a group of people that think they should be in charge. Government always contains some element of corruption as you pointed out, that's the same across the world. If socialism is instilled as the country's "way" eventually someone will come along to take advantage of it and use the laws in place to the people's disadvantage.

I'm glad to hear that things are still improving. I do know that the situation in Poland is infinitely better than it was under Soviet rule.

Again, I'm glad you answered in the spirit the question was posed. I think I understand the situation much better now. I've still got to do some educational research on my part. When I graduated in 1990 the Vietnam War wasn't even in our textbooks yet!?! )o: I've got to do some more studying on my part of the 1980s (when I was too young to fully understand) and the 1990s (when I was busy raising my babies!).

One good thing: At least in Poland they come right out and say they are Socialists! (o:

[LibertyRocks]

I had a feeling that was the case with these online "translators". (o:

It just made me angry when that guy called you stupid! I wanted to make sure we understood each other.(o:

[Lukasz]

One good thing: At least in Poland they come right out and say they are Socialists! (o:

In fact they aren’t socialists, as well as they aren’t communists, generally they don’t have any specific views or ideals. They just wanted and still want to be in the top of pyramid.

[Lukasz]

jb6 is the chief of Russian propaganda on FR. He cannot offend me, because I don’t have any respect for him. Such kind of people aren’t able to offend me.

[Grzegorz 246]

"Sorry, last time I checked, the Communists in Russia had 13% of parliment and in Poland they were reelected to run the government."

There is some difference between Polish "communists" and Russian communists.
As you remind us Poland is being run now by "communists", but we don't live under communist system (or maybe you have different opinion). What would happen If Russian communists won elections ? Nationalization of private property, red stars and all other traditional red stuff...

BTW I heard many times, mainly from western Europeans that Americans are the dumbest people in the world. I strongly opposed claiming that Americans have the best scientists etc. however after reading your posts I had to rethink this case. Next time I will say: Yes, but only some of them.

[Grzegorz 246]

Most people in the west don't realize how political situation in Poland really looks like. What do you think about Walesa ? Hero ? Yes, definitely he was a hero in 80's, but he just wasn't a good President, he wasn't better than current president Kwasniewski, who is a former commie. The same about the last one Parliamentary elections in 2001 - right wing parties lost - why ? Because their government was really bad. Left wing parties (including some former commies) won - why ? Because it seemed that they will be better - they aren't, so they will loose in a few months. In the last one elections in 2001 I didn't vote at all, because I didn't want to vote for leftists and right wing was in a really bad shape. I could only laugh when after those elections I read in foreign media that Poles want to be ruled one more time by communists. Now I care little about what those people were doing in 80's, I care more about what they want to offer us in the current situation and it isn't always so simple that everyone is good, who claim he is a right wing politician.

[anonymoussierra]

Dzieki

[anonymoussierra]

Swietnie dzieki :}}

[LibertyRocks]

I understand what you are saying Grzegorz. Especially when you said, "it isn't always so simple that everyone is good, who claim he is a right wing politician" The same is true here in America.

Thanks for taking the time to educate me on these issues and how they relate to the current situation in Poland. (o:

[jb6]

There is some difference between Polish "communists" and Russian communists

OK, please enlighten me on the difference in philosophy and politics of Polish and Russian communists, besides the fact that in Poland they hold the govenrment and in Russia they old 13%.

[jb6]

If Russian communists won elections

Except that each election they've fallen and in the last one they lost 50% of their seats. What a small difference, isn't it.

As for your dumb comment, I never called you dumb, just your countryman Luskoz (?sp) and he does make stupid posts that I disproved continously. But after your comment, I will have to reexamine my opinion of your intelligence. To bad.

[Grzegorz 246]

"As you remind us Poland is being run now by "communists", but we don't live under communist system (or maybe you have different opinion). What would happen If Russian communists won elections ? Nationalization of private property, red stars and all other traditional red stuff..."