Posted on 11/30/2004 4:31:57 PM PST by yonif
At the International Atomic Energy Agency on Monday, Iran seems to have dodged a bullet. Hassan Rowhani, a top Iranian official, certainly thinks so, calling the IAEA decision a "great victory" that proved that Iran is capable of "isolating the US." Yet some proliferation experts, such as the Clinton State Department's point man Robert Einhorn, think the European-IAEA deal is just fine: "This is really a win-win situation for the administration." Which is it?
According to Einhorn, the deal is a win for the US because "Iran's nuclear progress is impeded as long as it keeps up the suspension [of uranium enrichment], and if they are seen as breaking the pledge, the administration can claim that as a way to take it to the UN Security Council."
Let's review the bidding. Iran has just repledged to suspend enrichment programs it lied about having for years, after cheating on previous suspension pledges. In exchange for this latest pledge, Europe will continue to negotiate a lucrative trade agreement with Teheran and hold the US-demanded Security Council action at bay in the bargain.
Whether this latest deal with the IAEA has "impeded" Iran's nuclear program depends on whether the Iranian pledge is kept and, if not, whether Iranian cheating on enrichment and other aspects of its program is detectable in a timely fashion. Given that the West wildly underestimated the progress of the Iraqi nuclear program before the 1991 Gulf War, and seems to have overestimated that same regime's capabilities before the more recent Iraq war, and has been fooled by Iran (and Libya and North Korea) before, it is unclear where the current confidence that we can detect Iranian cheating comes from.
What we know for certain is that, once again, Iran has gained more valuable time. Every time Iran cheats and receives another chance, its program has progressed a notch closer to the point of no return, the point at which the West begins to ask itself whether it is worth the risk of trying to reverse a fait accompli.
There is no need, however, to look into the future to project the impact of Western fecklessness and complacency. It is already here. Iran is already reaping the benefits of nuclear blackmail, even before it has built a single nuke.
What, after all, is the purpose of nuclear weapons for a regime like Iran? Some seem to assume Iran is a rational actor and therefore rule out various doomsday scenarios, such as it attacking Israel or providing terrorists with a nuclear weapon. We see no reason to make such assumptions. Yet even if those scenarios are taken off the table, Iran is already accomplishing two other critical objectives: providing an umbrella for its support of terrorism and for its own repressive regime.
The Associated Press reported this week that 300 men gathered openly in Teheran, in the presence of a government official, to sign up to become suicide bombers, either against Israelis or Americans. The group claims to have 4,000 terrorists on board, and has nothing to fear from the government, whose spokesman said that the fact "that some people do such a thing is the result of their sentiments." Israel is now trying to convince Europe that Iran's favorite terrorist proxy, Hizbullah, has become the major instigator of Palestinian terrorism, not to mention the hundreds of missiles it has pointed at Israel's North.
Iran is the world's most open and enthusiastic state sponsor of terrorism. Its regime, much like that of the Brezhnev-era Soviet Union, is aggressive, hated at home and ideologically bankrupt.
Yet, through its nuclear program, Iran's mullocracy has managed to almost completely divert attention from its aggression and repression, the two attributes that were supposed to have made it an endangered species in the post-9/11 world.
"After eight years of a bold but bungled experiment with reform, Iran's government is in the throes of a takeover by conservatives determined to restore the revolution's Islamic purity," The Washington Post reported on Monday. "[Ayatollah] Khamenei is in a better position than he's ever been," said a senior Western diplomat. "There's a real cockiness in the stride of his camp."
Any deal that makes the world safer for Iran's mullahs makes it a lot less safe for the rest of us.
The lessons of the Thirties have been forgotten.
Both Europe and Iran are smirking at the U.S. that they've accomplished a great victory here, but they don't mean the same thing, and only the Iranians are correct.
We have no reason to believe that Iran will violate the terms of this treaty...again....for now....until they violate it. That does not instill a great deal of encouragement in me. I hope our military planners are updating their maps because we may need them.
I can't help but think that somebody is going to whack these nuclear installations in the not too distant future.
We need to send former President Clinton over there to replace the mullocracy with a mulletocracy.
Let's just send the trailer park crowd in to overthrow the mullocracy and replace it with a mulletocracy. Beware the mullet.
On the contrary, we have every reason to believe this would be precisely what they will do. Based on previous experience with them as the article states: Let's review the bidding. Iran has just repledged to suspend enrichment programs it lied about having for years, after cheating on previous suspension pledges.
Fool me once shame on you, fool me a half dozen times then shame on me, the UN, Europe....
Yes, We need invasion grade policy to call victory over anything. Who would think mullahs stopped everything because “the bribed and persuaded few keyholes” would like us to think so?
Reread my entire reply. I believe I said that. You are preaching to the choir here.
Ok. I guess I missed your point.
Prairie
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