Posted on 11/28/2004 9:02:20 PM PST by CHARLITE
Since Ronald Reagan beat Jimmy Carter for the Presidency of the United States, Republicans have won 5 out of the last 7 presidential contests. Since 1994, the Republicans have controlled both houses of Congress. While the 2000 presidential election has been sited as the “closest” in history (it was not) and, on those grounds, liberals would have the country believe that we are “deeply divided,” the 2004 election brings into focus a movement in the country that has been going on for some time.
While liberals do not like very much the trumpeting of the “red” against the “blue” in the last two election cycles—such a comparison indicates without a doubt a conservative drift in the country’s politics. In fact, the drift had already begun long before Clinton was elected twice and the drift since 1960 seems to indicate beyond a shadow of a doubt that Clinton’s success was the exception rather than the rule. Nevertheless, this last election gives both parties something to be thankful for: clarity.
For the Republicans, this Thanksgiving constitutes a day during which they may be thankful that they continue to represent the majority of the population of the United States—and, in some places, one that has clearly rejected a liberal effort to impose values by judicial fiat, if same-sex marriage is any indication. Make no mistake, it’s not same sex marriage so far that is being rejected: it’s judicial fiat.
For the Democrats, this Thanksgiving constitutes a day during which they may be thankful that the American populace has clearly indicated its values through every measure that the representative republic that is the United States affords its legislators as a measure of the will of the people.
In short, the Democrats have been offered, on a silver platter, a means by which to re-align the party in order to succeed.
As a bonus, the Democrats get to live through four more years of a Bush presidency so that they can continue to learn what it means to be a minority party.
Toward that end, a few facts about the recent election bear repeating: Bush won a plurality of votes in every category that our system deems valuable. Electorally, President Bush won 286 to 252. In the popular vote, President Bush gained re-election by garnering more votes than any president in history. In the state by state count, President Bush won 31 states to 19 (or 20, if you count Kerry’s carrying Washington, D.C.).
But a dissection of the state-by-state vote is revealing. Kerry won 19 states and one (for lack of a better term) “territory,” Washington, D.C. Including D.C., Kerry’s margin of victory was 12.25 pts where he won. Yet, as part of that margin of victory country-wide, Kerry carried five states by fewer than 4 points: Minnesota 3pts, Michigan 3pts, New Hampshire 1pt, Nevada 2pts, Pennsylvania 2pts, Wisconsin 1pt. Democrats would do well to pay attention to which states fell to Kerry so closely, as they are traditionally Democratic states that are dangerously close to going Republican.
Bush’s margin of victory was much more comfortable on a state-by-state basis. Bush won 31 states with only four, Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio, and Nevada within the four point margin—in order, these voted Republican by 1pt, 1pt, 3pts, and 2pts. President Bush’s average margin of victory in the states he won was 18.26 pts. And, if Kerry’s wins are calculated without Washington, D.C., his margin drops to 8.63 pts.
Such numbers indicate clearly that the country itself is on a conservative bent.
So, as you are ruminating over turkey and rhubarb pie (in the “red” states) or frois-grois and saffron in “blue” states, ruminate on this: the country is clearly conservative.
For the Republicans, this means fighting against hubris. For the Democrats, if recent days are any indication, it means fighting against reality.
Comments: gregorbo@peoplepc.com
Does anyone know how close the 1960 Nixon vs. JFK election was? From what I understand, it was VERY close.
Don't forget the gin-and-raisin pudding.
I am not sure how you can say 2000 was not the closest election in history.
Kennedy won by a 0.17% margin in the popular vote, and carried 303 electoral votes to Nixon's 219.
It was something like 35,000 votes... Very close.
119,450, actually.
oh, this is hooey. i had nothing like that. ;)
"Does anyone know how close the 1960 Nixon vs. JFK election was? From what I understand, it was VERY close."
Popular Vote:
JFK- 49.7% (34,227,096)
Nixon- 49.5% (34,107,646)
Byrd- .2% (116,248)
Electoral Vote:
JFK- 303
Nixon- 219
Byrd- 15
For a great site with election coverage from every year, check out www.presidentelect.org
Let us see if there is a pattern in recent elections, and I'll go back to 1968 here. The first person to find the pattern gets a pat on the back...from themselves...
I've listed below each candidate and how they were generally viewed by the public at the time of the election. The winner is listed first. Note the publicly held view wasn't always accurate.
2004
Bush: right
Kerry: left
2000
Bush: center/right
Gore: center/left
1996
Clinton: center
Dole: center
1992
Clinton: center
Bush: center
1988
Bush: right
Dukakis: far left
1984
Reagan: right
Mondale: far left
1980
Reagan: right
Carter: center/left
1976
Carter: center
Ford: center
1972
Nixon: center/right
McGovern: far left
1968
Nixon: center/right
Humphrey: center
I'm very tired of this talking point. Kerry also won more votes than any previous presidential candidate.
There are more voters than at any time in history, and we had a contentious race resulting in a big turnout.
Of course the winner set a record for votes.
Needs a bit of editing. This guy has Kerry winning Nevada in one paragraph and Bush winning Nevada in the next.
From the way you summarized the results, every time the Reps run as centrists they lose.
Of course the ones that lost were terrible candidates as well.
Well, there are actually two trends to glean...
Republican candidates to the right of center have not lost since 1964.
Democrat candidates to the left of center have not won since 1964.
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