Posted on 11/28/2004 12:33:44 PM PST by Tailgunner Joe
The sight of hundreds of thousands of protesters in Kiev has rocked Ukraine's business oligarchs who mostly backed the bid by Viktor Yanukovich, prime minister, for the presidency.
Business leaders assumed the authorities would deliver the required result and deal effectively with any public backlash in favour of the opposition candidate, Viktor Yushchenko.
But the scale of the demonstrations, road blocks and strikes has shocked them, and their influence is critical, as they have acquired their wealth and power by working closely with Leonid Kuchma, the outgoing president.
Most remain wedded to Mr Yanukovich, especially the barons of his political heartlands in the industrialised Donetsk region. But a few are beginning to wonder whether Mr Yanukovich still offers the best protection for their interests.
Many are also coming under pressure from employees who are openly supporting Mr Yushchenko - putting up posters in factories and workplaces and taking time off for demonstrations.
Much will hinge on the attitudes of the country's two wealthiest men. One is Viktor Pinchuk, Mr Kuchma's son-in-law and head of a business empire that ranges from manganese to media, including the Novy Kanal, STB and ICTV television channels.
The other is Rinat Akhmetov, the chief of a steel and coal empire based in Donetsk and Mr Yanukovich's main business backer.
Mr Pinchuk has profited hugely from his relationship with Mr Kuchma and has encouraged his broadcasters to back Mr Yanukovich.
However, Mr Pinchuk has in past Financial Times interviews portrayed himself as a middle-of-the-road figure interested in integrating Ukraine's economy with the west as well as with Russia.
Olexander Tkachenko, the head of Mr Pinchuk's Novy Kanal, said yesterday that business people such as Mr Pinchuk could "act as a bridge between those who are in power now" and Mr Yushchenko and his allies. "I believe they want to have a consensus," he said.
Mr Tkachenko, who has previously backed Mr Kuchma and almost certainly voted for Mr Yanukovich, said he would now support Mr Yushchenko.
He criticised the authorities for confirming Mr Yanukovich as the official election winner on Wednesday, thereby reducing the scope for compromise. This was not the way to promote stability, he said.
Mr Tkachenko's views are widely shared by people employed in the media, financial services and other sectors in central Kiev.
But backing away from Mr Yanukovich would be risky for Mr Pinchuk. Mr Yushchenko has pledged to review the controversial privatisation of Kryvorizhstal, Ukraine's biggest steel mill, which was sold to Mr Pinchuk and Mr Akhmetov earlier this year for $800m (€604m, £424m), far less than foreign bidders were prepared to offer.
If Mr Pinchuk has little room for manoeuvre, Mr Akhmetov has even less. Having backed Mr Yanukovich to the hilt he stands to gain if his man is confirmed as president.
One of his executives yesterday told the FT: "This looks like hysteria. Yushchenko should take his complaints to the courts. But I think Yanukovich's victory will be validated."
However, even Mr Akhmetov might be concerned if the crisis brings a collapse in relations with the west.
In a recent interview with the FT, he said he was modernising his businesses by developing ties with western-educated managers, consultants and banks.
Elsewhere in the Ukrainian business elite, a few individuals have long been sympathetic to Mr Yushchenko, notably Sergey Taruta, head of the Donbas Industrial Union. Most, though, have seen backing Mr Yanukovich as the best way of retaining money and power. So have Russian business people who have invested heavily in Ukraine.
As a last resort, they may ditch Mr Yanukovich but would fight to retain the system he represents. Alexander Rahr, director of the German Council for Foreign Relations, says bluntly: "The oligarchs will see how things develop. But they have put too much into backing Yanukovich to pull back now."
Kuchma, who was helped into power by George Soros, wants to preserve the rule of the Soros backed gangster elite, including Viktor Pinchuk, Kuchma's son-in-law. Before the election Pinchuk invited Soros to an official visit to Ukraine, as well as others such as Wesley Clark, Richard Holbrooke, Zbigniew Brzezinski, and Russian oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky.
There is no evidence that Soros has ever funded Yushchenko.
Pinchuk (Kuchma's son in law), Soros and
Olena Franchuk (Kuchma's daughter)
Haven't you at least thought about the possibility that the LEADERSHIP (as opposed to the genuine opposition) on both sides are part of a KGB inspired dialectic? Think about the implications for the Genuine Ukrainian opposition, Europe and the US!!!
George Soros is clearly a player on the international stage. What influence do the US courts have in such a situation? If he is a naturalized US citizen, are there laws against foreign intervention in State politics in violations of US treaties and alliances?
‘Viktor Yushchenko's battle to convert people power into a legal victory for the Ukrainian presidency remains long and hard.
On Saturday, Mr Yushchenko did make considerable progress in parliament, where deputies voted to declare November 21's election invalid on grounds of widespread fraud that favoured Viktor Yanukovich, the prime minister backed by President Leonid Kuchma.
Only 70 of the 450-member assembly backed a motion approving Mr Yanukovich's election victory, as former allies, notably Viktor Pinchuk, Mr Kuchma's son-in- law and an influential businessman, withheld support. Parliament also voted for a new election commission.
The votes are symbolic, since parliament plays no legal role in reviewing elections. But the political message has echoed around Ukraine and will have reached the Supreme Court, which today is due to review a motion from Mr Yushchenko to have the election declared invalid.
It was unclear on Sunday whether the court would consider making a broad decision to invalidate the whole poll and pave the way for a new second round election or to examine reviewing the vote on a district-by-district basis. Mr Yushchenko's supporters want a quick decision and a new vote in two or three weeks. But they were not certain the authorities would leave the court free to make an independent decision.
In any case, the key moves will be made in the political arena. Mr Yushchenko's demands amount to a virtual dismantling of Mr Kuchma's administrative machine before the proposed election re-run including the dismissal of the prime minister, the cabinet and officials allegedly involved in falsifying last week's poll. Such moves could threaten the coterie of business oligarchs who surround Mr Kuchma. The opposition leader is also pressing for parliament to pass new election laws abolishing absentee ballots, and other changes to minimise future fraud. Little surprise that Mr Kuchma said on Sunday talks between the Yushchenko and Yanukovich camps were going badly. Mr Yanukovich, touring his heartland in eastern Ukraine, said bluntly that the country was “on the brink of catastrophe”.
Mr Yanukovich was speaking at a gathering of friendly parliamentary deputies and local politicians who voted for a referendum to establish a new autonomous region with its capital in the eastern city of Kharkiv.
Among the participants were Russian officials, reportedly including Yuri Luzhkov, mayor of Moscow.
"Luzhkov is connected to Marc Rich", well could there also be a 'hidden' Clintons connection????
Sounds like Pinchuk et al know when to play it safe. Not supporting Yushchenko may get them scowled at, but pissing off Yanukovich may get them killed.
It is clear that if they can't steal all of the Ukraine, they intend to carve it up. They want their mafia/oligarch controlled eastern Ukraine to have at least the kind of self-rule that Crimea has, and before it is over they will want independence because they are mostly Russian speaking and don't give a damn about Ukraine -- only lining their pockets with money from Ukraine's resources and kowtowing to Mother Russia.
OK, but which candidate is Lev Leviev backing?
Hell will freeze before that happens, Joe.
There are no laws that prohibit a private citizen from "intervening" into policies of the state --- unless they constitute treason.
This applies more to Kerry, who acted in official capacity when he met with our enemies, but Soros does not.
Is the Ukraine big enough for that?
To the east of the River Dnieper, they would center their pro-Russian state around Kharkhiv.
Crimea already has its own parliament and a large measure of autonomy.
I believe Ukraine corresponds roughly in size to Texas (but I could have that wrong. Perhaps it is bigger. I'm guessing.)
Best piece I've seen. Thanks.
Yushchenko because he wants to break the back of corruption in the Ukraine.
I was listening to a talkshow yesterday that the powerline blog does. They had a guy on that's done business there, and he said the bribes are a way of life when it comes to doing business in Ukraine, hopefuly Yushchenko 1 win 2 break this culture of corruption.
Yanukovich is an ex-convict. He is a violent thug
Do you have a source on that? Thanks.
If memory serves it was called the breadbasket of Europe (the soil is as rich as the great plains), before the communists took over and they ended up with 70 years of bad weather.
I see Joe's given you a link. You can also go to the Kyiv Post for more information. Many of the stories in the European papers point out that people support Yushchenko not so much because of their love for him or his ideas but because they are scandalized by Yanukovich's criminal past as well as the allegations that have dogged him all his life.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.