Posted on 11/28/2004 12:46:45 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
Morgan invited the visitors for an early Thanksgiving dinner, but the reporters had to return home, driving to the Jacksonville airport past Snoball stands, chicken farms and antiabortion billboards.
LAKE BUTLER - Since George W. Bush captured Florida and the White House again, critics have fixed their sights on northern pockets of the Sunshine State and asked: How did the Republicans win so heavily in counties stocked with Democrats?
Some wondered whether Florida's tally was corrupt, with one Internet site writing: ``George W. Bush's vote tallies, especially in the key state of Florida, are so statistically stunning that they border on the unbelievable.''
Last week, The Herald went to see for itself whether Bush's steamroll through North Florida was legitimate. Picking three counties that fit the conspiracy theory profile -- staunchly Democratic by registration, whoppingly GOP by voting -- two reporters counted more than 17,000 ballots over three days.
The conclusion: No conspiracy.
The newspaper's count of optical scan ballots in Suwannee, Lafayette and Union counties showed Bush whipping Sen. John Kerry in a swath of Florida where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans 3-1.
The newspaper found minor differences with the official results in each county, most involving a smattering of ballots that had been discarded as unreadable by optical scan machines but in which reporters felt the voter intent was clear.
Under the optical-scan system, voters fill in an oval or darken an arrow by a candidate's name on a card. A machine reads the card optically.
Wrinkles aside, The Herald count confirmed that Bush's message sold in a part of the state where many voters may be Democrats by registration only.
''They're not going to vote for a Northeast liberal,'' said Lafayette County Judge Harlow Land, director of the county canvassing board.
Kerry had solidly won the battle in South Florida, where touch-screen machines do not create a ballot paper trail that can be checked. But Bush won the war in Florida by dominating elsewhere, particularly in the 52 counties that use optical scan ballots, which can be checked for accuracy.
Republicans had often done fairly well in those counties, but this year more so. And it was on those counties that the critics focused. Democrats outnumber Republicans by about 340,000 voters in the 52 optical scan counties, but Bush took them by about 340,000 votes -- a 680,000-vote swing that assured him of winning the White House.
UNION COUNTY
The Herald focused on three counties that represented some of the more severe disparities between registrations and votes, beginning last Monday morning in Union County, where more than 75 percent of the registered voters are Democrats.
Election clerk Mary Francis Williams flipped ballots in the courtroom in Lake Butler, as reporters marked lines on pads -- counting votes for Bush, votes for Kerry and the rare votes for a third-party candidate.
As the counting went on, the daily hubbub of life breezed through. One worker's husband dropped by to say he was taking a truckload of cucumbers and collards to Jacksonville. A neighbor stopped in to tell friends about the lot size for her double-wide.
Union County Judge Dave Reimer popped in, too, saying: ``People here traditionally register as Democrats to vote in local primaries, but they're very conservative. When I came here in 1983, there were only 54 registered Republicans in the whole county.''
Election Supervisor Babs Montpetit was a little more direct. ''People here are mostly fundamentalist Christians who work in the prisons,'' she said. ``Do you think they're going to vote for the liberal senator from Massachusetts?''
The Herald total: 3,393 votes for Bush and 1,272 for Kerry. There were 15 votes that couldn't clearly be counted.
The official Union County total: 3,396 votes for Bush, 1,251 for Kerry and a few dozen that couldn't be counted.
''The difference is in the under-over votes,'' Montpetit explained. The Herald concluded voter intent in a couple of dozen cases that scan readers could not discern.
SUWANNEE COUNTY
The next stop was west a bit, past cattle and tall pines to neighboring Suwannee County. Election Supervisor Glenda Williams greeted reporters at the election office in Live Oak: ``Most people in this county are against abortion and gay marriage. So, they voted for Bush.''
Did it matter that Dick Cheney, Bush's vice president, said that same-sex marriage should be left to states to decide, a position that differs from Bush's? ''We don't think that deep,'' she replied.
Williams had just put together a packet to mail to BlackBoxVoting.org, an Internet group that has questioned the outcome of the Florida election.
''BlackBox wants office memos,'' Williams said. ''But we just talk to each other,'' she said.
Williams displayed the voting tabulation machines and demonstrated how the ballots are fed in by voters. She printed out a tape that looked like a cash register receipt to show the early vote results. It matched The Herald's count.
Halfway through Tuesday, Williams took a break so she could pick up Sassy at the dog groomer and buy a pecan pie from Cracker Barrel.
The head of the Suwannee County Chamber of Commerce, Dennis Cason, put in his two cents during the respite. ''A lot of Christians here -- independent, fundamentalist Baptists -- think that God interceded for Bush,'' he said.
The Herald counted almost 60 percent of the votes in Suwannee County, where nearly 64 percent of the voters are registered Democrats.
The newspaper's total from those precincts: 6,140 votes for Bush and 2,984 for Kerry, which nearly matched the county's official tally.
LAFAYETTE COUNTY
Next stop: Mayo in Lafayette County (pronounced ``Luh-FAY-it''), where 83 percent of the voters are registered Democrats.
Along the way were neighborhoods called ''The Christian Village'' and a warehouse called ''The Christian Outlet.'' One billboard said: ``There is life before birth.''
''This can't be déj vu, like four years ago,'' county Election Supervisor Lana Morgan said at the courthouse, where the ballots awaited.
Four years ago, the Florida vote was so tight, and so flawed, that The Herald counted every questionable ballot. This time, the results weren't as close, but the questions remained. Reporters told Morgan the newspaper had come back to hand-count presidential votes to end the speculation.
''Good,'' she said. ``You don't know how frustrating it is to convince people who are set on believing something -- even if it's not true.''
Lafayette County Judge Land paid a visit during the count. Bush made ''an honest mistake'' when he said there were weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, the judge said, and voters looked past that error to other issues.
The reporters' total: 2,452 votes for Bush and 848 for Kerry, with 20 that couldn't be clearly counted.
The official Lafayette County total: 2,460 votes for Bush, 845 for Kerry and others that couldn't be counted.
Morgan invited the visitors for an early Thanksgiving dinner, but the reporters had to return home, driving to the Jacksonville airport past Snoball stands, chicken farms and antiabortion billboards.
Eww! IBS?
Could be that common malady afflicting Kelsey Grammar's wife.
By the way, don't you think it's sort of odd that a guy would go on national television/radio and discuss his wife's bowel problems?
Even more weird that she'd go on TV herself and talk about it!
I understand that's why the dear couldn't bear her own child. (too much poopin')
Now I know what criteria to put in the next personal ad I send to the New York Times.
LMAO! Strictly a coincidence, I'm sure.
LOL. I'd like to see some of your priors. (ads, that is)
Let's fall in love, and cast our ballots! Cute, slender, passionate, kind, unpretentiously brainy, female writer, seeks warm, attractive, honest, uncynical Democrat (non-smoker, 30s to 40s) for a 2-term plus.
Phew!
At least she's not "pretentiously" brainy.
LOL!
Uh oh.
I just can't stand those chicks who have to be all pretentious about their braininess.
Or they're pretentiously brainy while simultaneously pretending to be an airhead.
I know, sounds oxymoronic, but I've seen this strange beast in action.
Reminds me of a bewhilderbeast.
LOL! And she also seems to be effortlessly obnoxious.
Especially those that adore the New York Times.
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