[Cronos]

One way to read this appears to be, if we attack Iran, then China and India will support Iran.

Err... NO. IF we attack Iran, China, russia and india will do didly squat. They aren't going to get involved against us -- they don't dare. They would want a piece of the oil action afterwards. They won't oppose us and India and Russia may even help us if we put in a government favorable to them.

[Arjun]

I am not sure about the indians but at some point the chinese will get involved. They arent going to simply watch their investments being blown away.

[snowsislander]

Err... NO. IF we attack Iran, China, russia and india will do didly squat. They aren't going to get involved against us -- they don't dare. They would want a piece of the oil action afterwards. They won't oppose us and India and Russia may even help us if we put in a government favorable to them.

In my estimation, you are right.

I also think that if we take out Iran, it changes the calculus for Taiwan a great deal.

Without the mad mullahs of Iran to count on for oil (the big new deal where the Chinese displace the Japanese as Iran's major customer), China I think will be far less likely to make a move on Taiwan.

And that big deal was a bad move on the part of the mullahs because now Japan will have less reason to ask us to hold back since Iran has already cut their legs out from under them.