Posted on 11/18/2004 7:15:18 AM PST by qam1
TRENTON -- U.S. Sen. Jon Corzine finds himself far outpacing any of his contenders for the governor’s office next year in a horse race that is now only his to lose.
"This is like inspecting the horses before the big race - they’re all standing there prancing about trying to look nice when somebody notices there’s one horse rounding the first turn already," said Clay Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "In this race there is no one to cry false start."
Democrat’s are taking broad-based support into next year’s gubernatorial race, according to the survey released yesterday.
Corzine holds at least a 20-point lead over his nearest GOP challenger, and a 40-point lead over acting Gov. Richard Codey who has not said whether he would enter next year’s gubernatorial race.
Corzine spokesman Steve Adamske said the senator had seen the survey and was pleased with his favorable ratings. But Corzine would not comment on his showing and was still considering his political options, Adamske said.
If Codey and Corzine were forced to go head-to-head in a Democratic primary next spring Corzine could expect to win 60 percent of the vote in that race with 20 percent of voters favoring Codey, according to the survey.
Corzine is the odds-on favorite in the horse race no matter who was match up against him in the poll that spoke to 2,235 registered voters in New Jersey.
"The poll suggests Sen. Corzine would probably win the governorship today in a landslide," Richards said.
"Acting governor Codey is less well-known, but also leads all Republican contenders and has six months in office before he faces a Democratic primary."
Against the two most likely GOP candidates, Doug Forrester and Bret Schundler, Corzine was ahead by 20-percentage points.
In a Corzine vs. Schundler race, Corzine would win 51 percent to 30 percent. Against Forrester, Corzine would win 51 percent to 29 percent.
"Schundler and Forrester are the leading Republicans because they have run statewide before and are better known," Richards pointed out yesterday.
If Corzine were to face-off against Burlington County Sen. Diane Allen in the November election he can expect to win the race 51 percent to Allen’s 25 percent.
Up against corruption buster U.S. Attorney Chris Christie Corzine pulls of a similar win with 51 percent of the vote over Christie’s 24 percent.
Christie has not announced his intentions to make a run for the governor’s office, but has been the subject of rampant speculation.
Codey said last week that he has not ruled out a run for a full term. The new acting governor also ran well against the Republican field, according to the survey, which said Codey would win by smaller margins than Corzine.
Codey spokeswoman Kelley Heck, said the acting governor’s reaction to the poll was, "Wow, only one day on the job and I’ve got the Republicans beat."
"Codey has an opportunity to establish a record and make himself competitive with Corzine if he is able to address the budget challenges the state faces over the next few months," said Rider University political science professor David Rebovich, and director of the Rider Institute for New Jersey Politics.
Assemblyman Paul DiGaetano added his name to the growing list of Republicans seeking the GOP nomination for the November gubernatorial race.
The poll of 2,235 registered New Jersey voters was conducted from Nov. 9-15. It has a sampling error margin of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
Codey said last week that he has not ruled out a run for a full term. The new acting governor also ran well against the Republican field, according to the survey, which said Codey would win by smaller margins than Corzine.
Could largely be name recognition at this point.
Republicans in NJ seem more organized and powerful than in NY, but I hope they don't shoot themselves in the foot somehow.
It will be an interesting year!
In a real race against a single Republican challenger with an ad budget this will change.
Republicans in New Jersey almost always manage to shoot themselves in the foot, and quite often in the head! Only 4 (four) New Jersey Republicans have been elected to statewide office in the last 50 (fifty) years!
I think it's hopeless, and I'll be retiring in a "red state".
Corzine made some serious enemies this year during the Senate campaigns. He had better sincerely hope that his colleagues chose to forgive and forget.
Why would Corzine take a step downward to take the governor's job? Doesn't he have more power and influence in the Senate?
Supposedly, He is "bored" a senator
Governorships aren't necessarily a "downward" step from a Senator. Governors are the cheif executive, Senators are just 1 out of a 100
And remember Governors become Presidents not Senators
Doesn't he have more power and influence in the Senate?
Not as a (hopefully permanant) minority Senator
Supposedly, He is "bored" as a senator
Agreed - the people are willing, but somehow the leadership never brings it all together.
NY is hopeless for the Republicans.
I don't enjoy pointing this out, but I suppose I mention it to let people know (although it's fairly obvious) so something can be DONE about it.
For a mega-state like NJ, becoming a governor is a step up. Think of it like arithmatic. In the Senate, you share power with 100 other people so, you rule 1/100th of 280 million voters, or 2.8 million. To a governor of a state of million people, the senate is a step up. But to a senator of a state of nine million, becoming governor is a step up.
Of course, math is a lousy way to look at it. Some people just have executive temperments (Giuliani), and others are born legislators (Dole).
He's bored many a Senator, I'm sure.
If New York City can elect a Republican mayor (Giuliani), that same man can win a state-wide election. NYC is flaming liberal, but Long Island was nearly a tossup between Bush and Kerry (and worships Rudy), and most of upstate is red.
I agree. Rudy can win a state-wide race in NY. Hands down. If they do it right.
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