Naw...just an average person...smiling anyway.
Thanks.
Things are very slow here in America, but very active in other parts of the world. Potential response to Al Zawahri’s recent video tape in today’s Jiddah attack. ETA has initiated a second series of bombings in less than a week, sychronized together ala AQ style. More pressure builds on the Iranian nuclear situation. Let me know if you want on or off the Ping list.
The next summary may be a little delayed and thinner than normal as I will be recovering from ear surgery this week. - Godzilla
12/06/04 Current National Homeland Defense threat level is YELLOW
1. Attack threat windows
12/06/04 Primary Window: October 29 - December 28, 2004. High concern over possible attack by al-Qaeda within 60 days of 29 Oct. OBL video. This is based upon an historical analysis of previous videos.
Another potential attack window is the Nov 24 - Jan 1 - Thanksgiving / Christmas Holiday season.
12/06/04 Secondary windows:
January 20, 2005 - Presidential inauguration
Feb. 6 Super Bowl in Jacksonville, Fla.
2. Attack Indicators
12/06/04 No real significant new indicators have been brought to my attention. Jihadi chatter appears to be returning to the same bravado as recent past. Al-Zawahri’s recent video tape (11/28/04) is still a concern, however it appears that it has been answered in the attack in Saudi Arabia.
11/23/04 This post is being maintained for a historical track - Godzilla
Threats of a nuclear attack continue to appear on some jihadi forums. I continue to monitor the ACSA "alert" regarding the prediction of a nuclear attack within the next 3 months. The credibility of this chatter and alerts is questionable, however, AQ has repeatedly stated it desires nuclear weapons, and there are concerns being raised again about nuclear material becoming available through either N. Korea, Iran or Pakistan.
3. Current Terrorist Operations
Al-Qa'ida - Europe
12/03/04 Europe seems increasingly likely to be the target of the next major Qaeda attack, a trend that could intensify when scores of Qaeda-affiliated militants who left European countries to fight in Iraq return home, several top terror analysts said. ..snip....
Experts at the conference Thursday, sponsored by the nonprofit New America Foundation, said that they did not expect new attacks to match the breadth of the Sept. 11 attacks, in large part because of improved security. Instead, they expect more operations resembling the coordinated March 11 bombings in Madrid, which killed 191 people. ...snip....
The danger, Marc Sageman said, was not more Sept. 11-style attacks but "a succession of Madrids, Casablancas, Istanbuls" - smaller, but still highly deadly, coordinated attacks. ...snip....
As that war winds down, they said, a phenomenon similar to what followed the Soviet-Afghan war can be expected. At that time, thousands of foreign militants left Afghanistan for home with new expertise in terrorism and weaponry and new links with like-minded extremists. ...snip....
"There are indications," Mueller said, "that Europe is at greater risk for terrorist attack than is the U.S." - particularly U.S. allies with troops in Iraq, but also Germany, which has 2,200 troops in Afghanistan.
Iran
12/03/04 Interception of several technology shipments to Iran has bolstered U.S. suspicions that Iran is secretly developing an intercontinental ballistic missile that could threaten Europe and possibly the United States. An intelligence report this week to Congress said North Korea, China and parts of the former Soviet Union provided Iran through the end of last year with ballistic-missile equipment, technology and expertise. The report said Iran, in trying to improve existing missiles, was ``also pursuing longer-range ballistic missiles.''
N. Korea
12/06/04 Intrigue continues to surround the events in this country. However, news sources have been very quiet regarding the interesting events that have recently transpired and whether or not Kim is still in power. - Godzilla
Israel
12/04/04 A senior Hamas commander in Tulkarm, Rami Abed Teikh, 26, was arrested Saturday night in a joint operation carried out by the IDF and Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency). Wanted by Israel since 2002, Teikh headed the cell that carried out the suicide bombing attack at Park Hotel in Netanya in March 2002. 22 people were killed and 100 injured in the attack, which prompted 'Operation Defense Shield' in the West Bank. During 'Defense Shield', Teikh received assistance from the local civilian population in order to evade arrest. He wore women's clothing to move about undetected. In recent years he was involved in recruiting activists and setting up a number of Hamas cells, whose members perpetrated scores of shooting and bomb attacks.
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull&cid=1102061191188
Russia Some thought that Russia may mean adjacent nations such as Chechnia, however the statements suggest something far more extensive - Godzilla
12/04/04 Russia said on Friday that it was prepared to launch cruise missile attacks against suspected terrorist bases outside its borders, with a top general warning that Moscow would use everything at its disposal for the attack.
“We will use long-range precision cruise missiles and bombs if we get such an order,” Russia’s air force chief Vladimir Mikhailov was quoted as saying by Russian news agencies. “We will use everything that is at our disposal.” Mikhailov did not specify which nations he had in mind or what sparked his warning.
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story_4-12-2004_pg7_44
12/03/04 Russia may use its strategic bombers to unleash preventive strikes against terrorists outside its borders, the commander of Russia's air force said Friday. Gen. Vladimir Mikhailov's comments to the ITAR-Tass news agency aired on Friday were the most direct yet in Russia's rising rhetoric on attacking terrorists abroad. Mikhailov did not specify what targets the air force could potentially go after. Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov and other top officials have said that preventive strikes against terrorists could involve all means except nuclear, but they never went into such specifics as suggesting the use of strategic bombers.
Thailand
12/06/04 A massive airdrop of paper birds to promote peace failed to halt violence in Thailand's restive south, with a spate of new attacks targeting soldiers and local officials erupting on Monday.
The bombings, shootings and arson attacks came hours after Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra said the airdrop Sunday of nearly 100 million Japanese-style origami cranes over the predominantly Muslim region had achieved an "enormous, positive psychological effect'' toward peace.
On Monday morning a seven-kilogram (15.4 pound) bomb was detonated remotely by a mobile phone at a rest-stop for patrolling soldiers. Four troops were wounded, one seriously, in Narathiwat province's Ra-ngae district.
http://www.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2004/12/6/latest/20032Violencee&sec=latest
I suspect that the bomb had a much more psychological effect than the paper cranes -Godzilla
12/04/04 A Buddhist school teacher was shot dead and another wounded in the latest attack by suspected Muslim militants in troubled southern Thailand where violence has raged throughout the year, police said Friday.
http://independent-bangladesh.com/news/dec/04/04122004ap.htm#A16
Turkey
12/04/04 Anti-terror police in Istanbul detained 12 people believed to be Chechen militants ahead of an official visit to Turkey Sunday and Monday by Russian President Vladimir Putin, police and media reports said.
http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticle.asp?xfile=data/theworld/2004/December/theworld_December77.xml§ion=theworld&col=
Germany
12/03/04 German police have arrested three Iraqis in a series of raids and the federal prosecutor says he believed they were planning an attack on visiting Iraqi Prime Minister Iyad Allawi.
Prosecutor Kay Nehm said the raids were launched after police in southwest Germany intercepted a series of increasingly "hectic" telephone conversations pointing to an attack. The Iraqis are suspected members of the militant group Ansar al-Islam.
Saudi Arabia
12/06/04 Four people were reported killed on Monday when militants threw explosives at the heavily fortified U.S. Consulate in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, and then forced their way inside. Saudi security forces stormed the building amid reports that the attackers had taken 18 hostages -- none of them Americans. Four Saudi security personnel were reported killed.
Witnesses reported hearing a fierce gun battle raging inside. Others said a car bomb had exploded outside the consulate at the beginning of the assault.
http://www.cnsnews.com//ViewForeignBureaus.asp?Page=\ForeignBureaus\archive\200412\FOR20041206d.html
Pakistan
12/05/04 The search for al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden has gone cold and there is no indication of his whereabouts, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf told the Washington Post in an interview published on Sunday. Musharraf said Pakistani forces were still aggressively pursuing bin Laden but that recent security operations and interrogation had determined only that he was still alive. "He is alive, but more than that, where he is, no, it'll be just a guess and it won't have much basis," Musharraf was quoted as saying in the interview.
Netherlands The flashpoint for Euro-Islamic tensions continues to be active - Godzilla
Spain
12/06/04Five explosions were reported in different Spanish cities today after warnings from the Basque separatist group Eta that it had planted seven devices. A caller claiming to speak on behalf of Eta had earlier warned the Basque newspaper Gara that explosive devices timed to explode at 1.30 pm (1230 GMT) had been planted in the cities of Avila, Valladolid, Leon, Santillana del Mar, Málaga, Ciudad Real and Alacant.
Five small explosive devices were detonated in Madrid on Friday after a similar call to Gara. Damage was minor and two police officers were lightly injured. Another device was defused on Saturday in the southern city of Almeria.
Today is a public holiday in Spain to celebrate the 1978 constitution and the return to democracy after the four-decade dictatorship of General Francisco Franco. Police had warned of a possible Eta attack.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/spain/article/0,2763,1367581,00.html
12/03/04 There are reports of five small bombs going off at gas stations in the Spanish capital of Madrid following a warning from a Basque separatist group. A Basque newspaper had said earlier that it got a call from a person speaking on behalf of the separatist group, saying five explosive devices had been planted at gas stations along highways leading out of Madrid.
United States
12/04/04 Health and Human Services Secretary Tommy Thompson resigned Friday, warning of a potential global outbreak of the flu and health-related terror attacks. "For the life of me, I cannot understand why the terrorists have not attacked our food supply because it is so easy to do," he said.
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20041203/D86OD2TG1.html
AQ has not displayed any historic attack on the food supply of any targeted country. It is currently not in its MO. This inferrs that it values the effect of bombs over something more subtle like food poisoning.
4. Attack method.
11/23/04 No real change in the preferred method of choice of AQ which are bombs - the bigger the better. With the exception of 9/11, car/truck bombs have been widely used. There are special concerns regarding the use by terrorists of the following types of vehicles:
1. Uhaul type cargo trucks.
2. Gasoline / Propane supply / tanker trucks.
3. Emergency vehicles (ambulances, police cars, fire trucks)
Current alerts out for at least two stolen fuel/tanker trucks, a stolen crop duster and about a hundred propane tanks. It is uncertain if the thefts are linked to terrorism at this time, however they could be adapted for use in a terrorist attack.
The nuclear potential continues to occupy additional discussion as unknowns regarding Pakistan’s Khan and Iran’ s efforts occupy people’s fears.
5. Personnel
12/06/04 Nothing new to report.
6. Significant meetings canceled:
12/06/04 No new cancellations.
7. Security has been heightened in specific cities
12/06/04 NYC is at a locally declared ORANGE where it had been since. 9/11/01.
GENERAL: Ongoing work to upgrade security at sea ports and airports.
8. Military operations.
12/06/04 No significant changes
9. Dept of Homeland Scty. / State Department
12/03/04 Travel Warning
United States Department of State
Bureau of Consular Affairs
Washington, DC 20520
This information is current as of today, Sat Dec 04 2004 00:15:58 GMT-0800.
Côte d'Ivoire
December 3, 2004
This Travel Warning is being issued to update U.S. citizens on the current unrest that is occurring in Cote d'Ivoire and to alert them to ongoing safety and security concerns. Because of the recent violence and the unsettled security situation, the Department of State has authorized the departure of non-emergency personnel and all eligible family members of U.S. Embassy personnel. The Department urges U.S. citizens to defer travel to Cote d'Ivoire . The airport has re-opened, but only to limited commercial traffic by some regional and European carriers. Land routes to the Ghanaian border remain open but travelers should consult the Embassy before planning to cross the border by road. This supersedes the Travel Warning of November 10.
On November 4, 2004 , government forces launched aerial attacks on cities in northern Cote d'Ivoire controlled by New Forces. The attacks resulted in the deaths of Ivorians and non-Ivorians. The situation remains volatile and there is the risk of conflict throughout the country. Cell phone, landline telephone communication and electrical services with the northern New Forces-held city of Bouaké and surrounding areas may be - intermittent. ....snip....
http://travel.state.gov/travel/cote_warning.html
10. Suspicious Domestic Incidents Not Currently Linked to Specific Terrorism Attempts
12/06/04 LEOs are still looking for stole tankers, propane tanks and a crop duster that could potentially be used for terrorist attacks - Godzilla