First Looks at 2006 - Racing for the Senate

You wrote:

MICHIGAN: As a first-term incumbent in a swing state, Democratic senator Debbie Stabenow is a likely GOP pickup target. But Republicans may have trouble recruiting a top-tier candidate if potential contenders decide to take a pass and wait for Democratic senator Carl Levin to step down in 2008. Keep an eye on state GOP chair Betsy DeVos, Rep. Candice Miller, and Rep. Joe Rogers.

Good post, but It's Mike Rogers, not Joe.

Truthfully, I'm not sure.

Maybe some fellow Freepers know.

1986 was a rough year on GOP incumbents all across the US.

Nope, it was 2002. 22,000 votes is easily beat. Nobody was worried. We like Republican senators in Missouri.

Jean wouldn't even have been able to step into the late Mel's shoes were it not for John Ashcroft being so gracious as to allow it to happen. The repeal of her 'appointment' was never in question here.

I don't think Robin has a chance against Talent. Nixon is the contender. The Carnahans next best shot at Senate is Jean's son Russ, who was just elected to the MO 3rd Congressional. If he shows up as much in DC as he showed up in Jefferson City, he won't last two terms.

The Carnahans are the Kennedy's of Missouri.

My take (with all due respect to NRO):

(I bolded the candidates I think can knock off incumbunts or win possibly open seats)

California (Feinstein)
I figure she's almost certianly safe but it’d be cool to take her down. A lot depends on who runs and how much money flows to the candidate. I'm wondering about the possibility ofrecent high-profile GOP candidates like Tom McClintock? or Bill Simon? Barring those, how about Tom Tancrado? Certianly he has the fire, though I would suppose his railing about immigration has made him many enemies.

Connecticut (Lieberman)
SAFE. I won't speculate on his retiring given I haven't heard anything about it from him. but I figure it ends up Dem no matter how that plays out.

Delaware (Carper)
SAFE. No need to elaborate.

Florida (Bill Nelson)
Some have mentioned Gov. Jeb Bush - apparently has said he's not going. He would have won. Some reports indicate Rep. Kathrine Harris has a comitment from Bush to back her (in return for clearing the decks for Martinez) - if so, that's formidable. Rep. Mark Foley is also a promising candidate if anything falls through on Harris. It's not a shoe in for either of these but i think it could be done. Any chance Nelson will go for the governor's job in 2006?

Hawaii (Akaka - 82, retiring?)
Safe. some have suggested Gov. Linda Lingle? I Doubt it.

Maryland (Sarbanes)
Lt. Gov. Michael Steele Here’’s the one I want to be radical about. I think this ought to be one of the top two or three goals for the GOP in 2006 is to put this up-and-coming GOP African American into office in Maryland. The governor’’s seat would be okay but the Senate seat would be higher profile on the national stage. This guy can be the GOP Obama if handled right.

Massachusetts (Kennedy)
SAFE (Drat!!) Moving right along.

Michigan (Stabenow)
Rep. Candace Miller is unknown to me but I’’ll take it on the testimony here and elsewhere that she has what it takes. It’ll be sad if so weak a candidate as Stenholm doesn’t get a stern challenge. thiso ught to be on the GOP short list.

Minnesota (Dayton - dead man walking)
Rep. Mark Kennedy, from all I hear, has an excellent shot.

Nebraska (Ben Nelson)
I'm presuming that the SecAg idea makes too much sense for both parties for it not to happen. Nelson has to know that no amount of moderation is going to alow him to be either Gov. Johanns or Rep Osborne. If he does, or if he doesn't go to the cabinet, Johanns has dibs (and would presumably appoint a placeholder if Nelson leaves) and Osborne would then be the front runner for Governor, and if for some reason Johanns doesn't want it, Osborne is perfectly capable of beating any Democrat in 2006.
Long story short? GOP pickup no matter what happens.

New Jersey (Corzine - running for Gov?)
former Gov. Christine Todd Whitman hasn't been talked up but why wouldn't she be an obvious candidtate here and perfectly capable of beating most of the likely dem nominees?

New Mexico (Bingaman)
Rep. Steve Pearce? I know nothing here. I assume it's safe.

New York (Clinton)
Probably safe, assuming Rudy doesn't take his shot, but how about Susan Molinari? is she yesterday’’s news in NY?

North Dakota (Conrad)
Gov. John Hoeven? Maybe former Gov Schafer. Some have speculated Conrad might see the handwrighting and step aside.

Washington (Cantwell)
Probably safe, but close win last time (even with loads of cash) might indicate vulnerablity...this one all depends on recruiting.

West Virgina (Byrd - 89, retiring?)
Rep. Shelley Moore Capito has been called a strong possibility. Having grown up in the land of Jamie Whitten, it's hard for me to imagine an aging Pork King being beat but alot can happen to a man in his late 80's in 2 years. I'll hold off on calling this vulnerable but it's one to watch.

Wisconsin (Kohl)
HHS Sec. & former Gov. Tommy Thompson could be strong (how old is he?) and Rep. James Sensenbrenner has some potential. Some have mentioned a Ryan that i know nothing about.

***

Ind. Vermont (Jeffords) SAFE, or goes Dem. Either way no help for us.

***

Repubs.
Arizona (Kyl) - SAFE.
Indiana (Lugar)- Retire? Should stay GOP in any case.
Maine (Snowe)- SAFE.
Mississippi (Lott)- SAFE (even on the odd chance he retires there are 2-3 very strong GOP heirs)
Missouri (Talent) - I think he’s pretty SAFE.
Montana (Burns) - SAFE? I haven’t heard a name that sounds like a threat.
Nevada (Ensign) - SAFE
Ohio (DeWine) - SAFE
Pennsylvania (Santorum) - I don’t think they can take him.
Rhode Island (Chafee) - Who cares?
Tennessee (Frist - retiring) - Ford wants it, but a Ford can't win statewide. GOP in TN should pray he gets the nod. Bryant or Blackburn either one will humble the "up and comer".
Texas (Hutchinson) - Reports say she's eyeing governors race. Safe GOP in any case. Bonilla, or Sessions, or some other GOP congressman should hold it easily.
Utah (Hatch) - SAFE
Virginia (Allen) - Running for re-election? Some thing he’ll step down to run for Prez…….Might lose this one if he does and the Dem. Governor Warner runs. But if he runs, he wins.
Wyoming (Thomas) - SAFE

So, as many as 8 of theirs we have a REAL shot at, no more than two or three (if you count TN or VA) they have ANY shot at……math looks good. Balance that with the historical trend of losing seats on mid-terms……I’’ll guess at least a 2-3 seat pickup net.

The GOP should prioritize, in order, IMO:
Steele in Maryland
Kennedy in Minisota
Protect Santorum
Miller in Michigan
Knock of Kohl
Win Florida
Recruit hard in Washington
Recruit a strong candidate to take out Conrad

Assuming Nebraska is a pickup one way or the other, we need a net 4. there's no reason not to get at least 2 out of that crop while holding Santorum.

Disagree. 2006 will put a lot of distance. Simmons, Shays, and Johnson were all re-elected. Jodi Rell could govern in such a way to clean up the GOP's image. I'm not distressed. Still, the open seat would be a lock for a Dem, but not because of Rowland. There are 5 CDs in CT, and Republicans did win 3. Nancy Johnson won by a fairly large margin, but Shays and Simmons both got less than 55%. In the middle of the state, the Democrats won overwhelmingly, and always win overwhelmingly. Lieberman is safe if he runs, and even if he doesn't, Republicans are going to have a tough time getting his seat. I think it's likely that the Democrats will win the governor's seat in 2006. It's a blue state, and they could nominate either Blumenthal, who is the AG and a mini-me version of Spitzer, or they could nominate the Secretary of State.