First Looks at 2006 - Racing for the Senate

The first important election of the 2006 Senate races comes today, as Republican senators and senators-elect meet to choose between Norm Coleman of Minnesota and Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina to head their campaign committee. Both sides say they have enough votes to win, so the final tally probably will be close. The victor will need at least 28 votes from the 55 members of the next GOP caucus.

Although the president's party often suffers during the off-year elections of his second term, a look at the map for 2006 suggests that the GOP's majority in the next Senate is probably large enough to withstand all but the mightiest of Democratic assaults. Of course, anything is possible — and that even includes Republicans increasing their majority. A number of older Democratic senators may decide that they don't want waste more time in the minority, for instance. Their retirements would create pickup opportunities for Republicans.

There will be 33 Senate elections in 2006, for seats currently held by 17 Democrats, 15 Republicans, and one independent. Top Republican targets probably will include Florida, Minnesota, and Nebraska; Democrats will take aim at Missouri and Pennsylvania and possibly Virginia.

ARIZONA: Republican senator Jon Kyl, a favorite of conservatives, will keep this seat. The one Democratic who could pose a problem is Gov. Janet Napolitano, but she's going to seek a second term in 2006.

CALIFORNIA: Democratic senator Dianne Feinstein — 73 years old in 2006 — says she's running again. Republicans will face an uphill battle in the Golden State, even if she changes her mind. A nominee from the GOP House delegation, such as Chris Cox or David Dreier, might stand a chance.

CONNECTICUT: Democratic senator Joe Lieberman is safe. If he retires, the GOP will have a tough time taking over, especially in the aftermath of former Republican governor John Rowland's scandalous meltdown.

DELAWARE: Because GOP congressman Mike Castle probably isn't interested in a run, Democratic senator Tom Carper can relax.

FLORIDA: When Mel Martinez formally succeeds Bob Graham next year, Sen. Bill Nelson will be Florida's last remaining Democrat elected statewide. Martinez emerged from a crowded GOP primary field this year and the group of Republican candidates interested in taking on Nelson may be even larger, especially because Gov. Jeb Bush says he's not running. The contenders could include attorney general Charlie Crist, Rep. Mark Foley, businessman Tom Gallagher, Rep. Katherine Harris, Lt. Gov. Toni Jennings, former statehouse speaker Daniel Webster, and Rep. Dave Weldon.

HAWAII: Political reporters may try to convince their editors that this race will be close — they desperately want Hawaii to become a swing state worthy of journalistic junkets — but Democratic senator Daniel Akaka can't be beat.

INDIANA: Republican senator Richard Lugar will run for another term. He'll be 74 in 2006.

MAINE: Democrats will take a shot at Republican senator Olympia Snowe, though she'll be favored against just about anybody in this purplish-blue state.

MARYLAND: Democratic senator Paul Sarbanes, 73 years old in 2006, is a potential retiree. Republicans will have a tough time winning an open seat, but Gov. Bob Ehrlich recently showed that Maryland is not a one-party state. If Sarbanes steps down, Lt. Gov. Michael Steele — a GOP rising star — may think about a race.

MASSACHUSETTS: Democratic senator Ted Kennedy will be 74 in 2006. He has to quit sometime — but his energetic stumping for John Kerry this year suggests that it won't be in 2006.

MICHIGAN: As a first-term incumbent in a swing state, Democratic senator Debbie Stabenow is a likely GOP pickup target. But Republicans may have trouble recruiting a top-tier candidate if potential contenders decide to take a pass and wait for Democratic senator Carl Levin to step down in 2008. Keep an eye on state GOP chair Betsy DeVos, Rep. Candice Miller, and Rep. Joe Rogers.

MINNESOTA: First-term Democratic senator Mark Dayton will sit near the top the GOP's hit-list, especially if Sen. Coleman heads the NRSC. Dayton's decision to close his Capitol Hill office shortly before Election Day encountered almost universal criticism and highlighted his extreme vulnerability. The GOP's best potential candidate may be Rep. Mark Kennedy. Wouldn't it be neat to have a Republican named Senator Kennedy?

MISSOURI: Republican senator Jim Talent will face a tough reelection. Potential Democratic challengers include attorney general Jay Nixon. Robin Carnahan, the daughter of the woman Talent defeated in 2002, was just elected secretary of state and could become a sentimental favorite among Democrats.

MISSISSIPPI: GOP senator Trent Lott has signaled his intention to seek a fourth term.

MONTANA: Following their victory in this year's gubernatorial race, Democrats may think they have a chance to oust Republican senator Conrad Burns.

NEBRASKA: Republican governor Mike Johanns will face enormous pressure from the national party to challenge Democratic senator Ben Nelson, who has raised more than $1 million to defend his seat. The Omaha World Herald already has polled likely voters on this matchup: Nelson holds a small lead, 41 percent to 38 percent. Potential monkey-wrench: What if Nelson decides to switch parties? It would probably have to involve a deal to stop Johanns from taking him on in the GOP primary.

NEVADA: Republican senator John Ensign is in the first term of what could be a very long run.

NEW JERSEY: No Republican has won a Senate election here since 1972, but all bets are off if Democratic senator Jon Corzine runs for governor next year and wins (thereby vacating his Senate seat). Gov. Corzine would get to pick his successor; Rep. Robert Menendez would be a strong possibility, but perhaps no stronger than any other Democrat from the state's House delegation. The GOP would have many possible nominees, including former Jersey City mayor (and 2001 gubernatorial candidate) Bret Schundler and former NYPD police commissioner Bernard Kerik.

NEW YORK: Democratic senator Hillary Clinton is surprisingly popular. There is probably only one Republican who can beat her: Rudy Giuliani. Odds are he won't try. Gov. George Pataki has demonstrated the ability to win statewide, but he appears to have his eye on the White House. Republican congressman Pete King would guarantee a feisty race and there's even a chance he'd surprise.

NORTH DAKOTA: If Republicans can come up with a good candidate, they may give Democratic senator Kent Conrad a scare. Former governor Ed Schafer is a possibility, but his refusal to make a run this year against Byron Dorgan — during a presidential-election year, when Republicans do very well in North Dakota — doesn't bode well for GOP recruiters.

OHIO: After Kerry's near-miss in Ohio this year, Democrats may think they have a chance to unseat Republican senator Mike DeWine. It's an exceedingly slim chance. Brace yourself for a new round of Jerry Springer rumors.

PENNSYLVANIA: Democrats will want to pick a better candidate than left-wing congressman Joe Hoeffel, last seen being steamrolled by Sen. Arlen Specter, to take on Republican senator Rick Santorum. One interesting pick would be Bob Casey Jr., a pro-life Democrat who has just been elected state treasurer, but he appears to be removing himself from consideration. Other possibilities include Treasurer Barbara Hafer (a former Republican), Teresa Heinz-Kerry (fun but not likely), MSNBC talker Chris Matthews (even less likely), and Philadelphia mayor John Street.

RHODE ISLAND: Lincoln Chafee, the sort-of Republican, isn't well liked by many of his GOP colleagues because they worry he'll bolt the party if it means he can stay in the majority. He may face a primary, but he'll probably win. Democrats will have a hard time coming up with a candidate who can beat him. Congressman Patrick Kennedy would be an interesting choice, but he appears content in the House.

TENNESSEE: Although Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist is safe, there is some speculation he will retire in order to pursue the presidency. An open seat here would interest Democrats — there would be a flurry of discussion about Al Gore's unlikely return to electoral politics, plus the possibility of Rep. Harold Ford, Jr., making a run. GOP aspirants would include Rep. Marsha Blackburn, former congressman Ed Bryant, Chattanooga mayor Bob Corker, and former congressman Van Hilleary. Important fact: Republicans now have carried open seats in the South nine times in a row.

TEXAS: Will Republican senator Kay Bailey Hutchison run for re-election or seek the governorship? The Senate seat is hers for the keeping. If she abandons it, the GOP nomination will be up for grabs. Democrats thought they had a chance here in 2002, when Phil Gramm retired, but Sen. John Cornyn won comfortably.

UTAH: Republican senator Orrin Hatch is safe. He says he'll seek a sixth term, at the age of 72.

VERMONT: Sen. Jim Jeffords — an "independent" who caucuses with the Democrats — thought he was helping his constituents when he quit the GOP in 2001. Turns out he made a big mistake, though it probably won't cost him in 2006, as he seeks reelection at the age of 72.

VIRGINIA: Democratic governor Mark Warner isn't allowed to run for reelection next year, and he probably represents his party's best hope against first-term Republican senator George Allen. But will he go for it? The ambitious Warner may be thinking about his party's veep slot, or even the White House, which means he won't want to risk a loss against Allen. And would Warner really present much of a challenge? His chief legacy as governor is a tax hike; Allen would stand a good chance of eating him alive. Bonus twist: Listen carefully as reporters quiz Allen on serving out a second term — he's widely believed to harbor presidential ambitions.

WASHINGTON: Democratic senator Maria Cantwell won her first election, four years ago, by a little more than 2,000 votes. Republicans would love to recruit former Rep. Jennifer Dunn, but her retirement from politics may be permanent. Another possible contender is Dino Rossi, this year's Republican nominee for governor. His election is so close that they're still counting ballots; as of this morning, he holds a 19-vote lead over his Democratic opponent, Christine Gregoire, with about 6,100 ballots left to go. There are probably a few GOP senators who privately hope Rossi loses — so that he can take on Cantwell and win.

WEST VIRGINIA: Democratic senator Robert Byrd will keep this seat as long as he wants it — and he's going to want it for at least one more term, sources say. He'll be just shy of his 89th birthday on Election Day in 2006.

WISCONSIN: Democratic senator Herb Kohl will be 71 in 2006, but he isn't retiring. If Republicans recruit an outstanding candidate, such as Rep. Paul Ryan, then Kohl may face a tough reelection.

My take (with all due respect to NRO):

(I bolded the candidates I think can knock off incumbunts or win possibly open seats)

California (Feinstein)
I figure she's almost certianly safe but it’d be cool to take her down. A lot depends on who runs and how much money flows to the candidate. I'm wondering about the possibility ofrecent high-profile GOP candidates like Tom McClintock? or Bill Simon? Barring those, how about Tom Tancrado? Certianly he has the fire, though I would suppose his railing about immigration has made him many enemies.

Connecticut (Lieberman)
SAFE. I won't speculate on his retiring given I haven't heard anything about it from him. but I figure it ends up Dem no matter how that plays out.

Delaware (Carper)
SAFE. No need to elaborate.

Florida (Bill Nelson)
Some have mentioned Gov. Jeb Bush - apparently has said he's not going. He would have won. Some reports indicate Rep. Kathrine Harris has a comitment from Bush to back her (in return for clearing the decks for Martinez) - if so, that's formidable. Rep. Mark Foley is also a promising candidate if anything falls through on Harris. It's not a shoe in for either of these but i think it could be done. Any chance Nelson will go for the governor's job in 2006?

Hawaii (Akaka - 82, retiring?)
Safe. some have suggested Gov. Linda Lingle? I Doubt it.

Maryland (Sarbanes)
Lt. Gov. Michael Steele Here’’s the one I want to be radical about. I think this ought to be one of the top two or three goals for the GOP in 2006 is to put this up-and-coming GOP African American into office in Maryland. The governor’’s seat would be okay but the Senate seat would be higher profile on the national stage. This guy can be the GOP Obama if handled right.

Massachusetts (Kennedy)
SAFE (Drat!!) Moving right along.

Michigan (Stabenow)
Rep. Candace Miller is unknown to me but I’’ll take it on the testimony here and elsewhere that she has what it takes. It’ll be sad if so weak a candidate as Stenholm doesn’t get a stern challenge. thiso ught to be on the GOP short list.

Minnesota (Dayton - dead man walking)
Rep. Mark Kennedy, from all I hear, has an excellent shot.

Nebraska (Ben Nelson)
I'm presuming that the SecAg idea makes too much sense for both parties for it not to happen. Nelson has to know that no amount of moderation is going to alow him to be either Gov. Johanns or Rep Osborne. If he does, or if he doesn't go to the cabinet, Johanns has dibs (and would presumably appoint a placeholder if Nelson leaves) and Osborne would then be the front runner for Governor, and if for some reason Johanns doesn't want it, Osborne is perfectly capable of beating any Democrat in 2006.
Long story short? GOP pickup no matter what happens.

New Jersey (Corzine - running for Gov?)
former Gov. Christine Todd Whitman hasn't been talked up but why wouldn't she be an obvious candidtate here and perfectly capable of beating most of the likely dem nominees?

New Mexico (Bingaman)
Rep. Steve Pearce? I know nothing here. I assume it's safe.

New York (Clinton)
Probably safe, assuming Rudy doesn't take his shot, but how about Susan Molinari? is she yesterday’’s news in NY?

North Dakota (Conrad)
Gov. John Hoeven? Maybe former Gov Schafer. Some have speculated Conrad might see the handwrighting and step aside.

Washington (Cantwell)
Probably safe, but close win last time (even with loads of cash) might indicate vulnerablity...this one all depends on recruiting.

West Virgina (Byrd - 89, retiring?)
Rep. Shelley Moore Capito has been called a strong possibility. Having grown up in the land of Jamie Whitten, it's hard for me to imagine an aging Pork King being beat but alot can happen to a man in his late 80's in 2 years. I'll hold off on calling this vulnerable but it's one to watch.

Wisconsin (Kohl)
HHS Sec. & former Gov. Tommy Thompson could be strong (how old is he?) and Rep. James Sensenbrenner has some potential. Some have mentioned a Ryan that i know nothing about.

***

Ind. Vermont (Jeffords) SAFE, or goes Dem. Either way no help for us.

***

Repubs.
Arizona (Kyl) - SAFE.
Indiana (Lugar)- Retire? Should stay GOP in any case.
Maine (Snowe)- SAFE.
Mississippi (Lott)- SAFE (even on the odd chance he retires there are 2-3 very strong GOP heirs)
Missouri (Talent) - I think he’s pretty SAFE.
Montana (Burns) - SAFE? I haven’t heard a name that sounds like a threat.
Nevada (Ensign) - SAFE
Ohio (DeWine) - SAFE
Pennsylvania (Santorum) - I don’t think they can take him.
Rhode Island (Chafee) - Who cares?
Tennessee (Frist - retiring) - Ford wants it, but a Ford can't win statewide. GOP in TN should pray he gets the nod. Bryant or Blackburn either one will humble the "up and comer".
Texas (Hutchinson) - Reports say she's eyeing governors race. Safe GOP in any case. Bonilla, or Sessions, or some other GOP congressman should hold it easily.
Utah (Hatch) - SAFE
Virginia (Allen) - Running for re-election? Some thing he’ll step down to run for Prez…….Might lose this one if he does and the Dem. Governor Warner runs. But if he runs, he wins.
Wyoming (Thomas) - SAFE

So, as many as 8 of theirs we have a REAL shot at, no more than two or three (if you count TN or VA) they have ANY shot at……math looks good. Balance that with the historical trend of losing seats on mid-terms……I’’ll guess at least a 2-3 seat pickup net.

The GOP should prioritize, in order, IMO:
Steele in Maryland
Kennedy in Minisota
Protect Santorum
Miller in Michigan
Knock of Kohl
Win Florida
Recruit hard in Washington
Recruit a strong candidate to take out Conrad

Assuming Nebraska is a pickup one way or the other, we need a net 4. there's no reason not to get at least 2 out of that crop while holding Santorum.

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