Posted on 11/15/2004 6:17:11 PM PST by TapTheSource
America and the Eurasian Alliance – Part I
Dr. Alexandr Nemets Thursday, May 15, 2003 U.S. Administration’s Plans
According to available information, the Bush administration’s plans in regard to the Middle East, for the second half of 2003-2004, are as follows:
1) Rebuild Iraq, primarily by restoring crude oil production to the 1989 level or even greater, up to around 6.5 million barrels a day (325 million tons a year),most of which would be exported.
As a result, Iraq would receive a lot of money for solving its most urgent socioeconomic problems while the world crude oil price (NY oil exchange mark) would stabilize between $20 and $25 per barrel.
The presence of U.S and U.K. troops in Iraq makes this plan feasible.
2) "Pacify" Syria. Concretely, this means a considerable list of "no mores" to be accomplished, by the end of 2004, throughout the entire Syrian territory:
No more long-range and even mid-range missiles of any kind.
No more WMD development, storing or trading.
No more support of terrorist movements and no more presence of terrorist groups.
No more occupation of Lebanon.
This program probably will require some changes in the top Syrian leadership, but the probability of a new military conflict, with U.S. and U.K. troops participating, is rather low.
3) Solve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in accordance with the “Road Map.” The author has some doubts; however, definite progress could be reached even here.
4) In accordance with American-Georgian agreements signed in mid-April, the number of U.S. servicemen in this poor Trans-Caucasian republic will soon increase dramatically, along with a dramatic decrease in the number of Russian servicemen still remaining in this former Soviet republic.
It is not impossible that, by the end of 2004, the U.S and U.K. would have military bases of some kind in Georgia as well as in its eastern neighbor Azerbaijan, facing the Caspian Sea. The leaders of both Trans-Caucasian republics are dreaming about entering NATO and providing permanent military facilities to U.S. troops.
If this occurs, then the U.S. and the West (except for Germany, France and probably Belgium) would establish control over the entire Trans-Caucasian corridor and, most importantly, would get a broad access – via Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan – to the huge hydrocarbon resources of the Caspian Shelf. As a result, the world price of oil could decrease even more.
By the way, the people of Turkey and Azerbaijan are very close ethnic relatives; this greatly facilitates the project.
Finally, the successful accomplishment of all the listed items would create a very uneasy situation for Iranian leaders: They would have to deal with the economic, political and military presence of the U.S. and its close allies in the west (Iraq, Turkey, and forget about military cooperation with Syria), east (Afghanistan), north (Georgia and Azerbaijan) and south (Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea).
This new environment could be beneficial for revolutionary changes inside Iran, the archrival of America and the West.
Evidently, President Bush intends to take care of Iran and North Korea after his re-election to a second term.
And What Could Happen in Reality
The described plans are really nice, but they could meet very tough resistance, namely, resistance from the Eurasian Alliance – France, Germany, Russia and China constitute its core of it – which is alive, active and still expanding in the following directions:
1) Expansion to Iran
Let's look at the new message published by China’s official Xinhua news agency on May 13:
Iranian Oil Minister Zanganeh said: "Iran would give priority to investment in oil and gas projects, especially those in the oil and gas fields shared by Iran and neighboring states (i.e., Iraq). ... Considering the U.S.’s ambitious projects in the region, such priority is a must. … Iran would give priority to European investment in its oil industry by taking advantage of a rift between the United States and Europe over the legality of Iraq's oil exploitation. Iran should try to raise oil production from joint oil fields as soon as possible, considering the ongoing developments in the region."
French oil companies have worked in Iran for many years. Germany also has serious interests here. Billions of euros invested in the Iranian hydrocarbon industry would arouse the local economy and, simultaneously, upgrade Tehran’s political ties with Berlin and Paris.
And no need to repeat the well-known facts about Chinese participation in modernizing Iran’s conventional forces, as well as Russian participation – through multiple open and hidden channels – in establishing Iran’s missile-nuclear potential.
Iran soon could become an integrated part of the Eurasian Alliance and, in this capacity, be a hard nut to crack.
2) Expansion to Southeast Asia
On May 12, the Moscow-based Nezavisimaya gazeta paper reported: "German Chancellor Schroeder came to Malaysia on May 11 for a three-day visit. After this, he will visit Singapore, Indonesia and Vietnam.
"Soon (before the end of June) Russian President Putin and French President Chirac will also visit Malaysia. Germany, France and Russia became the major opponents of the U.S. and its allies in the Iraqi War. At the same time, Malay Prime Minister Mahathir was the major opponent of this war in the Muslim world." (end of message)
Indeed, during this war Mahathir (an old opponent of America and a close friend of China) made several tough anti-American statements. The Moscow media (Zavtra weekly paper and others) eagerly reprinted the statements. So, Malaysia is also entering the Eurasian Alliance.
By the way, Malaysia and Iran are actively cooperating in the oil industry. Malaysia’s interest in Russian weapons also should not be ignored.
It should be added that in mid-April, during the visit of Indonesian President Megawati Sukarnoputri to Moscow, Russia and Indonesia concluded an agreement – the first of its kind in several decades – for military-technological cooperation, jointly with a preliminary agreement about cooperation in space technology.
China, in 2000-2002, dramatically expanded its scale of trade with Indonesia. This was accompanied by Chinese low-interest loans and even "small financial gifts" to this country. Moreover, China’s leading oil companies, CNOOC and SINOPEC, are exploiting Indonesian oil and gas fields.
Presently, Russia, Germany and France are following the Chinese lead and entering the Indonesian market. And American positions in this country, which didn't support the Iraq war, are weakening.
Similar trends are taking place in other countries of Southeast Asia, which is becoming an arena of struggle between America and the Eurasian Alliance.
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America and the Eurasian Alliance – Part II
Dr. Alexandr Nemets Friday, May 23, 2003
On May 18-19, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov visited Malaysia and, according to initial data, concluded new agreements regarding Russian weapons supply to this country.
What remains of the sometimes firm American grip on Southeast Asia? Probably the Philippines alone. That's because Chinese influence in Singapore and Thailand is burgeoning, and other members of the Eurasian Alliance will follow the Chinese lead in these countries.
3) Expansion to Belarus, Ukraine and, possibly, Poland
Belarus, "the last dictatorship in Europe," enjoys perfect ties with both Russia – within the framework of the emerging "United States of Russia and Belarus" – and China. Moreover, Belarusian President Lukashenko is developing ties with Western Europe while opposing the "American dictate."
Poland, which is doing its best to become the real ally of America, is located between China-Russia-Belarus (eastern part of Eurasian Alliance) and Germany-France-Belgium (western part of Eurasian Alliance). For how long will the "Polish buffer" be capable of withstanding the growing pressure from both East and West? It would be particularly irrational to underestimate Germany’s influence over Poland.
Ukraine, criminalized and chaotic, is extremely unstable. This country is under great pressure from Russia, namely:
The Kremlin intends to add Ukraine to the "United States of Russia and Belarus"; Putin himself is giving top priority to ties with Ukrainian president Kuchma and other local leaders.
Russian oligarchs are purchasing, almost for nothing, tidbits of Ukrainian petrochemical and steel industries.
Russian TV channels broadcast to Ukraine pictures of "Mother Russia prospering under kind czar Putin." And this works: The starving Ukrainians are jealous of half-starving Russians!
Remarkably, China also has strong positions in Ukraine as the major purchaser of Ukrainian weapons technology, steel, etc. These positions solidified after President Kuchma's visit to China in mid-April.
And it is hard to overestimate the political and economic influence of Germany and France in Ukraine, which prefers the euro to the dollar and aspires to become an EU member.
At some moment, the pressure from East and West will become unbearable, and Ukraine will fall under Eurasian Alliance control. That's very probable. And this will add to the pressure on Poland. By the way, Moscow is extremely irritated by Polish consent to send troops to patrol postwar Iraq.
4) Expansion in Central Asia
In October 2001, NATO put air bases in Kazakhstan and Tajikistan. It was supposed that, in the new environment, Chinese, Russian and Iranian influence in oil-rich Kazakhstan and other Central Asian nations would weaken dramatically.
However, French and German servicemen came to these bases along with American servicemen. And French oil companies are presently expanding investments in oil and gas deposits in western Kazakhstan. Will it be possible for American troops as well as U.S. and U.K. oil companies to counterbalance the influence of the Eurasian Alliance in this strategic region?
5) Expansion on Korean Peninsula
On May 11-15, the Moscow media – both the leftist and the pro-government media – gave following "average" estimation of the events on the Korean peninsula:
North Korea recently, after the Iraqi War, accomplished its exit from the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty, thus openly challenging Washington. At the end of April, U.S. representatives came to Beijing for talks with North Korea, thus confirming Beijing's role of mediator and arbiter.
In several days, Secretary of State Colin Powell claimed, the conflict will be solved on the basis of old conditions, shameful for America: fuel oil deliveries to Pyongyang in exchange for nuclear weapons production termination. And such termination is non-checkable in the environment of Kim Jong-il's regime.
Eventually, it is possible to conclude that China will confirm its dominating position in Northeast Asia. (end of Moscow media estimations)
Can we agree with such an insulting-to-America conclusion? The point is that Chinese economic and political influence also grew very strong in South Korea, not just in North Korea, in 2000-2002.
South Korean magazines claim that the old "Degoog" (Great Country) phenomenon has been reborn. In medieval Korea, top-ranking officials used to call China the "Great Country" and considered the emperor's court in Beijing to be the supreme authority.
Now South Korean former presidents, parliament deputies, etc., are using every opportunity available to visit Beijing and meet the president or premier of China, to ask them for mediation and support in their troubles with North Korea, to scratch out some economic concessions. "Degoog" is back.
And Moscow, enraged by the defeat in Iraq, is hopeful for "compensation," with Chinese assistance, on the Korean peninsula: If America is "out" and Moscow is "in," then it would be possible to lay the dreamed-of Trans-Korean railway, which could be connected, through the Trans-Siberian railway and Moscow, with Western Europe. A lot of gains for the entire Eurasian Alliance!
By the way, in 2001-2002, the EU established ties with Pyongyang.
6) The struggle is also under way on the South Asian subcontinent, the Middle East (out of Iraq and Iran), Eastern Europe (out of Poland), Balkans, etc.
3. Some Conclusions
It is easy to see that, by May 2003, almost the entire Eurasian Continent became an arena of struggle between America, U.K. and their allies (Eastern European countries, Italy, Spain, Scandinavian countries, Japan) and the expanding Eurasian Alliance. No side can claim victory at this stage.
However, the most important fact is that the Eurasian Alliance is only forming, taking its initial shape. At the next stage, the mature Eurasian Alliance could become extremely threatening to American interests, because it would combine the mighty financial and technological potential of Germany, France and, probably, the three countries of Benelux; the huge economic potential and work force of China; rich Russian natural resources and the remaining military-technological potential of this country.
America would have to deal with an "unbeatable" adversary. Moreover, the geopolitical struggle could spread – or is spreading already – to Africa, Latin America and Oceania.
However, Russia, which put together the Eurasian Alliance both geographically and organizationally, is also the most vulnerable point of the newly emerged alliance.
If and when Moscow – NOT Russia – is out of picture, the Eurasian alliance would cease to exist. The following should be taken into account in the most serious way:
Almost the entire real wealth of Russia is concentrated in Moscow; Moscow is an object of hatred by almost all other Russian regions, particularly by the destroyed and impoverished peripheral regions of the Far East, the northern part of European Russia and the North Caucasus.
Some of these regions – both "local elite" and "common people" – are eager to accept any assistance from outside, particularly from the U.S., the U.K. and Japan--to get rid of "Moscow’s protection." U.S. diplomacy should "forget" Moscow and the Kremlin and concentrate efforts on the Russian periphery. This is a life-and death-problem.
Dr. Alexandr V. Nemets is co-author of "Chinese-Russian Military Relations, Fate of Taiwan and New Geopolitics" and the forthcoming "Russian-Chinese Alliance."
ping!
Thought you might be interested in this from a geopolitical perspective. At any rate, I would be interested in a Turkish point of view on this. Thanks--TTS
US, Eurasia and Islam
"US, Eurasia and Islam"
Not sure I follow you. Care to elaborate?
ruh, roh... you know MarMema and Destro (Putin plants) are about to show up, don't you?
We now have troops in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Afghanistan and Iraq. If we occupy Syria and Iran there will be virtually no more threat to our oil supply or Isreal. We will consolidate our military power where it matters most. Terrorists will run out of places to hide and the other Muslim governments will back off, not wishing to join those being forced into free governments.
Perhaps a form of colonialism that a is a halfway house to representative government is exactly what the peoples oppressed by Islam radicals need.
"ruh, roh... you know MarMema and Destro (Putin plants) are about to show up, don't you?"
Of course. I never ping them, but they always manage to find me (and anyone else who disagrees with the Putin crowd for that matter).
Wouldn't be the same with you, MT.
Western Europe could implode due to Islam. The welfare state cannot be sustained.
Estern Europe does not want to part of the USSR again and they don't want Muslims ruling them either.
Putin has a Muslim problem and should be working with the United States.
If the Iranians get rid of the mullahs - there could be a major shift. The Iranians hate the mullahs and want to live in a westernized democracy. They are fed up with a Islamic theocracy.
"Putin has a Muslim problem and should be working with the United States."
And yet Putin, as an integral and central part of the anti-American Eurasian Alliance, works against our interests all over the world.
"If the Iranians get rid of the mullahs - there could be a major shift. The Iranians hate the mullahs and want to live in a westernized democracy. They are fed up with a Islamic theocracy."
Still can't figure out why we didn't take out Iran, seeing how they are an official member of the Axis of Evil (and on the verge of developing a viable nuclear weapons program, thanks to Russia, Red China, and others).
Nemets bio, incase anyone is interested.
Dr. Alexandr Nemets
Alexandr Nemets was born in Moscow in 1955. He studied at the Moscow Institute of Steel and Alloys, where he received a B.S. degree as a specialist in industry automation in 1978 and an M.S. degree as a data base developer in 1983. From 1978 to 1986, he worked as a programmer, at the same time studying Chinese and Japanese.
From 1986 to1992, he worked at the Presidium of Academy of Sciences USSR as an expert on the economic and technological development of China and Japan. During this period he published several dozen articles and booklets in the Soviet scientific media.
In 1991, Dr. Nemets defended his Ph.D. thesis, "Science-intensive sectors in the Chinese economy," at the Central Economic-Mathematical Institute, Academy of Sciences USSR and received a Ph.D. degree in 1992.
In 1989-93, Dr. Nemets undertook seven trips to the vast region between Lake Baikal and Beijing. In 1994 he emigrated to the United States, working at the University of Minnesota in 1995.
From 1996 to 2000, Dr. Nemets was a consultant to Science Applications International Corp. and published several hundred research reports related to China and Russia.
From 2000 to 2002, Dr. Nemets was a consultant to the American Foreign Policy Council and other governmental and non-governmental organizations in Washington, D.C.
US Military Bases in Poland combined with an Iranian revolution would squash this Eurasian alliance from forming completely.
"US Military Bases in Poland combined with an Iranian revolution would squash this Eurasian alliance from forming completely."
More than that, we need to stop feeding the Red Chinese dragon our money and high technology (cut off all aid and trade to Red China), we need to recognize that Russia is not our ally in the War on Terror (or anything else) and act accordingly, we need to realize that the EU has shifted its allegiance East and may soon become a potential enemy, and we need to start bolstering our allies in Asia such as Japan, S. Korea, and Taiwan (not selling them out a la Powell's recent public support for the discredited and evil "One China" policy...read: sell out Taiwan to the Communists)....and much, much more.
This program probably will require some changes in the top Syrian leadership, but the probability of a new military conflict, with U.S. and U.K. troops participating, is rather low.
What you mean Bashir doesn't want to end up in a spiderhole?
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