Polling Analysis, Who got it done? Who blew it?

11-05-04 | Josh in PA

[Josh in PA]

Thought I'd take a look at how all the polling services did, on both a national level and at the state level.

I threw my own computer software's prediction (CAMEC) in there, as well as the DUmpster "TruthIsAll". Those who put on the hipboots and tread over there know he followed the undecideds "breaking 70-30 toward the challenger" myth the media invented. Like everything else they believe at the DUmpster, "TruthIsAll" was taken in hook, line, and sinker by the mainstream media and criminals like John Zogby.

The link to the final CAMEC Projections are at: CLICK HERE FOR CAMEC PROJECTIONS

The rest of the results are right off the 3-Way Race Polls at RealClearPolitics.Com

Let's first look at the NATIONAL RESULTS:

FINAL RESULTS: Bush by 3 (51.3 to 48.3)

Pew Research -       Bush by 3, off 0.
ICR -                Bush by 3, off 0.
CAMEC/FreeRepublic - Bush by 2.8, off 0.2
TIPP -               Bush by 2.1, off 0.9
GW/Battleground -    Bush by 4, off 1.0
CBS News -           Bush by 2, off 1.0
Time -               Bush by 5, off 2.0
Harris -             Bush by 1, off 2.0
Zogby -              Bush by 1, off 2.0
NBC/WSJ -            Bush by 1, off 2.0
ABC/Wash Post -      Bush by 1, off 2.0
Newsweek -           Bush by 6, off 3.0
ARG -                Tied, off 3.0
CNN/Gallup -         Tied, off 3.0
LA Times -           Tied, off 3.0
Marist -             Kerry by 1, off 4.0
FOX News -           Kerry by 2, off 5.0
AP/Ipsos -           Kerry by 3, off 6.0
TruthIsAll/DemUnd    Kerry by 3.6, off 6.6

Below are the results of 16 battleground states: Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Missouri, New Hampshire, Nevada, West Virginia, New Mexico, Oregon, Colorado, Maine, Arkansas.

I left off Hawaii off the list for a couple of reasons. #1 Only 2 local Hawaiian TV stations did polling for the state, and they didnt do any other state, and none of the major polling services polled Hawaii. #2. Hawaii was CAMEC's biggest failure, and I need to cover it up :) :). The two reasons are definently related.

Onto the results, only MAJOR polling services used!, I'm not using local papers who only do their own state poll and no other state, and polls cannot be older than 3 weeks.

ARKANSAS, Bush won by 9.8%
Mason-Dixon -    Bush by 8, off 1.8
CAMEC/FR -       Bush by 7.2, off 2.6
SurveyUSA -      Bush by 5, off 4.8
Zogby -          Bush by 1, off 8.8
TruthIsAll/DU -  Kerry by 2, off 11.8
=
COLORADO, Bush won by 5.2%
Rasmussen -      Bush by 5, off 0.2
CAMEC/FR -       Bush by 5.7, off 0.5
Gallup -         Bush by 6, off 0.8
Mason-Dixon -    Bush by 7, off 1.3
SurveyUSA -      Bush by 3, off 2.2
Zogby -          Bush by 2, off 3.2
TruthIsAll/DU -  Kerry by 1.5, off 6.7
=
FLORIDA, Bush won by 5.0%
CAMEC/FR -       Bush by 4.5, off 0.5
Mason-Dixon -    Bush by 4.0, off 1.0
Stratgc Vision - Bush by 4.0, off 1.0
Rasmussen -      Bush by 3.0, off 2.0
Quinnipiac -     Bush by 8, off 3.0
LA Times -       Bush by 8, off 3.0
SurveyUSA -      Bush by 1, off 4.0
Zogby -          TIED, off 5.0
Research 2000 -  Kerry by 1, off 6.0
ARG -            Kerry by 2, off 7.0
Gallup -         Kerry by 3, off 8.0
TruthIsAll/DU -  Kerry by 4.5, off 9.5
FoxNews -        Kerry by 5, off 10.0
=
IOWA, Bush won by 0.9%
Research 2000 -  Bush by 1, off 0.1
ARG -            Bush by 1, off 0.1
CAMEC/FR -       Bush by 2.0, off 1.1
Gallup -         Bush by 2, off 1.1
Rasmussen -      Bush by 2, off 1.1
Stratgc Vision - Bush by 3, off 2.1
FoxNews -        Bush by 4, off 3.1
SurveyUSA -      Kerry by 3, off 3.9
Mason-Dixon -    Bush by 5, off 4.1
Zogby -          Kerry by 5, off 5.9
TruthIsAll/DU -  Kerry by 9, off 9.9
=
MAINE, Kerry won by 8.8%
SurveyUSA -      Kerry by 8, off 0.8
Zogby -          Kerry by 11, off 2.2
Rasmussen -      Kerry by 5, off 3.8
ARG -            Kerry by 4, off 4.8
CAMEC/FR -       Kerry by 3.7, off 5.1
TruthIsAll/DU -  Kerry by 16.5, off 7.7
=
MICHIGAN, Kerry by 3.4%
SurveyUSA -      Kerry by 3, off 0.4
Rasmussen -      Kerry by 4, off 0.6
Research 2000 -  Kerry by 4, off 0.6
Mason-Dixon -    Kerry by 2, off 1.4
CAMEC/FR -       Kerry by 1.1, off 2.3
Zogby -          Kerry by 6, off 2.6
Stratgc Vision - Bush by 1, off 4.4
TruthIsAll/DU -  Kerry by 8.5, off 5.1
=
MINNESOTA, Kerry by 3.5%
Rasmussen -      Kerry by 1, off 2.5
Zogby -          Kerry by 6, off 2.5
Stratgc Vision - TIED, off 3.5
CAMEC/FR -       Bush by 0.7, off 4.2
Mason Dixon -    Bush by 1, off 4.5
Gallup -         Kerry by 8, off 4.5
TruthIsAll/DU -  Kerry by 10, off 6.5
=
MISSOURI, Bush won by 7.3%
ARG -            Bush by 6, off 1.3
SurveyUSA -      Bush by 5, off 2.3
Mason Dixon -    Bush by 5, off 2.3
Rasmussen -      Bush by 5, off 2.3
CAMEC/FR -       Bush by 4.6, off 2.7
Research 2000 -  Bush by 3, off 4.3
TruthIsAll/DU -  Bush by 1.5, off 5.8
=
NEVADA, Bush won by 2.6%
Rasmussen -      Bush by 2, off 0.6
Research 2000 -  Bush by 2, off 0.6
CAMEC/FR -       Bush by 4.7, off 2.1
Zogby -          Bush by 5, off 2.4
SurveyUSA -      TIED, off 2.6
Mason Dixon -    Bush by 6, off 3.4
TruthIsAll/DU -  Kerry by 1, off 3.6
=
NEW HAMPSHIRE, Kerry won by 1.3%
Mason Dixon -    Kerry by 1, off 0.3
CAMEC/FR -       Kerry by 0.9, off 0.4
Rasmussen -      Kerry by 2, off 0.7
Research 2000 -  Kerry by 3, off 1.7
TruthIsAll/DU -  Kerry by 3, off 1.7
ARG -            Bush by 1, off 2.3
=
NEW MEXICO, Bush won by 1.2%
ARG -            Kerry by 1, off 2.2
TruthIsAll/DU -  Kerry by 1, off 2.2
CAMEC/FR -       Bush by 3.9, off 2.7
Mason Dixon -    Bush by 4, off 2.8
Rasmussen -      Bush by 4, off 2.8
Zogby -          Kerry by 3, off 4.2
=
OHIO, Bush won by 2.5%
CAMEC/FR -       Bush by 2.8, off 0.3
FoxNews -        Bush by 3, off 0.5
SurveyUSA -      Bush by 2, off 0.5
Stratgc Vision - Bush by 2, off 0.5
Mason Dixon -    Bush by 2, off 0.5
Rasmussen -      Bush by 4, off 1.5
Zogby -          Bush by 6, off 3.5
ARG -            Kerry by 2, off 4.5
Gallup -         Kerry by 4, off 6.5
TruthIsAll/DU -  Kerry by 4.5, off 7
LA Times -       Kerry by 6, off 8.5
=
OREGON, Kerry won by 3.9%
ARG -            Kerry by 4, off 0.1
CAMEC/FR -       Kerry by 3.2, off 0.7
SurveyUSA -      Kerry by 3, off 0.9
Mason Dixon -    Kerry by 6, off 2.1
Research 2000 -  Kerry by 6, off 2.1
Gallup -         Kerry by 8, off 4.1
TruthIsAll/DU -  Kerry by 9, off 5.1
=
PENNSYLVANIA, Kerry won by 2.2.
Rasmussen -      Kerry by 2, off 0.2
Mason Dixon -    Kerry by 2, off 0.2
SurveyUSA -      Kerry by 1, off 1.2
Stratgc Vision - Kerry by 1, off 1.2
CAMEC/FR -       Kerry by 0.8, off 1.4
Zogby -          Kerry by 4, off 1.8
Quinnipiac -     TIED, off 2.2
TruthIsAll/DU -  Kerry by 7.5 off 5.3
Gallup -         Bush by 4, off 6.2
=
WEST VIRGINIA, Bush by 12.9
Mason Dixon -    Bush by 8, off 4.9
CAMEC/FR -       Bush by 6.9, off 6.0
Gallup -         Bush by 6, off 6.9
Rasmussen -      Bush by 6, off 6.9
ARG -            TIED, off 12.9
TruthIsAll/DU -  TIED, off 12.9
=
WISCONSIN, Kerry won by 0.4%
ARG -            Kerry by 1, off 0.6
Mason Dixon -    Kerry by 2 off 1.6
Stratgc Vision - Bush by 2, off 2.4
CAMEC/FR -       Bush by 2.3, off 2.7
FoxNews -        Bush by 3, off 3.4
zogby -          Kerry by 6, off 5.6
Gallup -         Bush by 8, off 8.4
TruthIsAll/DU -  Kerry by 9.5, off 9.1
=
FINAL RESULTS  (Average % off)
OUTFITS WITH ATLEAST 10 POLLS
Rasmussen                 -- 1.94 / 13 states
SurveyUSA                 -- 2.14 / 11 states
Mason Dixon               -- 2.15 / 15 states
CAMEC/Free Republic       -- 2.21 / 16 states
American Resrch Grp (ARG) -- 3.58 / 10 states
Zogby                     -- 3.98 / 12 states
TruthIsAll/DemUnderground -- 6.87 / 16 states
LESS THAN 10 POLLS
Strategic Vision          -- 2.16 /  7 states
Quinnipiac                -- 2.60 /  2 states
FoxNews/Opinion Dynamics  -- 4.25 /  4 states
Gallup/CNN/USAToday       -- 5.17 /  9 states
Los Angeles Times         -- 5.75 /  2 states

[Josh in PA]

We hung in there!! :)

[MaryFromMichigan]

Well, while it's not a poll, some savvy freeper came pretty close on the electoral college numbers.

[gitmo]

I think it's a mistake to only evaluate the final results. Many of the polling companies appeared to make radical changes on Monday to make their final numbers "right". A one-day prediction is of minimal value. A forward-looking projection that nails the election is worth paying attention to.

[Josh in PA]

Good job Mary :)

[Josh in PA]

Very true.. I know for a fact that ARG is a push polling organization until the last week to make themselves look "right"

[MaryFromMichigan]

Thanks, you too, on compiling the polls.

[Maumee]

To Zogby, Harris, Quinnipac ect. etc. tea leaf readers, fortune tellers and seers; Wasn't it a funny thing that happened on the way to the polls?

[EEDUDE]

I went slumming over at DU a little while ago.

Those folks are absolutely convinced that the vote was stolen by massive fraud, and are also convinced that once the fraud is exposed, JFK will be rightly proclaimed the winner.

Delusional. They bought the fake exit polls hook, line and sinker.

[puppetz]

Notice how almost all those polls UNDERESTIMATED Bush's final numbers. Is it intentional bias or do Republicans float under the pollster's radar somehow?

[traderrob6]

Da%$ Josh, you need a high 5 and a hearty atta boy! You compare to the best of the big boys. Your state results are also excellent. You are a real asset to FR

[Liberty Valance]

Wow! Fox polling was one of the worst. And I thought Zogby was bad. Thanks for all your fine work :o)

[DallasJ7]

Actually if you'll look at Tarrance/Battleground's final projection, they specified the final numbers to a tenth of a percentage point and were only off by 0.1% for both Bush and Kerry. They absolutely nailed it. Best national pollster around, IMO.

[Zechariah11]

Great work!

[lstanle]

"Actually if you'll look at Tarrance/Battleground's final projection, they specified the final numbers to a tenth of a percentage point and were only off by 0.1% for both Bush and Kerry. They absolutely nailed it. Best national pollster around, IMO."

You are exactly right. Their final projection on Tuesday morning had Bush .1 % high and Kerry .1 % low as I recall. Their charts were very good also.