Actually, the thing which will ultimately lead to less dependence on foreign oil is the higher oil prices which we have been seeing.
Really think about this for a while. The reason that the Saudis and OPEC have spent years trying to "stabilize" oil prices at the ~$25 level is not out of the goodness of their black, evil hearts. It is because at a higher price alternative fuel sources become economically feasible.
OPEC and the Saudis are not our friends. They want two things, (1) to squeeze as much monmey out of the west as possible for their oil, and (2) to be able to use their oil as a political weapon to achieve their own ends.
The problem is the goals (1) and (2) are not completely compatible. If oil prices go too high, the advanced nations will develop alternative fuel sources and objective (2) will be lost forever.
The technology to convert coal to liquid fuels has been known and demonstrated for over a century. We don't utilize it on a large scale because it it more expensive than refining oil. At some price it becomes economically as well as technically feasible.
My best guess is that this price is somewhere just over $25/barrel. Why? Because this is where the Saudis tried to "stabilize" oil prices. They are not our friends, but they are not dumb. The thought of the US or Western civilization becoming independent from their oil is their worst nightmare.
Oil prices can temporarily spike as they are doing now, and we are "over a barrel" simply because it takes years of capital investment and building facilities to produce alternative fuels in any reasonable quantity.
Based on years of engineering experience, my own feeling is that if we ever develop the political will to accept large scale coal to liquid fuel conversion the price will start to decline. The normal course of development will take care of that.
If oil stays over $40 look for large companies to start bringing alternate fuel source projects out of mothballs and back into the mainstream.
I would gladly pay $2 for gas for the rest of my life if it allowed the US to tell the Saudis to "go pound sand".
P.S. The US has very large coal reserves.
which large energy companies are going to do that? the US oil majors make record profits when oil is at $50, they are not going to invest in alternate sources of energy. other companies might, but they are small and undercapitalized.
I don't recall where I read it now, but I think that the price that will encourage other oil sources as shale, etc is in the $50/bbl range. We're close enough that if it stays about there such sources will be brought online.
Western Canada will be a huge beneficiary when this happens.