GOP trend familiar (Love of W. or disgust with Democratic Party?)

Kentucky Post ^ | Nvember 6, 2004

[Cincinatus' Wife]

FRANKFORT -- Kentucky's Republican Party this election began toppling Democrats in a section of the state that politically has long favored donkeys over elephants. Western Kentucky, an area once seen as a solid lock for the Democratic Party, saw five incumbent House Democrats fall in Tuesday's election and an open Senate seat that had long been Democratic go Republican.

"It definitely is trending more Republican in Western Kentucky," said Russ Randall, the GOP's 1st Congressional District chairman.

The trend evident in the Jackson Purchase region is one that has also encompassed Northern Kentucky, where Republicans began making gains in the late 1980s with the election of Jim Bunning now a U.S. Senator from Southgate, to the 4th Congressional District. State Rep. Joe Fischer, R-Fort Thomas, said he sees striking parallels between the two areas of the state. Like Northern Kentucky, Western Kentucky began trending Republican from the top down in 1994 with the elections of Ed Whitfield and Ron Lewis to represent the 1st and 2nd Congressional Districts respectively.

Once federal offices are secured, it begins to trickle down to state officials and then to local offices. The Northern Kentucky caucus -- once dominated by Democrats -- now consists of 11 Republicans and five Democrats. And judge-executives in Boone, Kenton and Campbell counties are Republicans.

Conservative Kentuckians have always wanted conservatives representing them at the federal level but "now they are seeing the advantage of electing conservatives at a state and county level," Fischer said.

John McCarthy, chairman for the Republican Party of Kentucky, said the same is starting to happen in Western Kentucky. "We've had the congressional level but that just shows you -- how much people really like Ed Whitfield, Ron Lewis and Mitch McConnell, and they are saying, 'Hey, if these guys can work this way at the federal level, let's give the local guys a shot,' " McCarthy said.

Of the five House Democrats who fell, all had served more than one term. The other two seats lost by Democrats were open seats. The lost Senate seat in Western Kentucky belonged to Sen. Bob Jackson, D-Murray, who retires at the end of this year.

Come January, each chamber will reflect these changes with a House margin of 57-43 favoring Democrats and a Senate margin of 23-15 favoring Republicans.

House Speaker Jody Richards, D-Bowling Green, maintains his party's majority is smaller but just as strong. He also stops short of acknowledging the Republican trend that's beginning to take root in his own back yard.

Democrats did retain a Senate seat earlier this year in Western Kentucky when Sen. Dorsey Ridley of Henderson won a special election called after the death of Sen. Paul Herron.

Rather than view it as a state issue, Richards sees it as a cycle occurring in various states brought on by the immense popularity of President George W. Bush.

"Our section of the country went very strong for President Bush, and I think it says really maybe more about the national Democratic Party then it does about the state Democratic Party," Richards said.

But Randall disagrees. The overwhelming Republican wins out west indicate the frustrations of conservative Democrats who see their party as abandoning them on issues concerning reproductive and gay rights.

The Democratic national party platform calls for "full inclusion of gay and lesbian marriages and abortion on demand and that just goes against the beliefs of the Christian conservatives of Western Kentucky," Randall said.

House Minority Leader Jeff Hoover, R-Jamestown, agrees on this point. "The people down there are standing up and saying that we want conservative leaders," he said.

While the northern and western regions of the state may share commonalities on social conservatism, they differ on fiscal conservatism, said Eric Gentry, president of campaign consulting firm Cornerstone Strategies Inc. in Edgewood. Gentry is from Grayson County and said Northern Kentucky has much industry and growth, something the rural agrarian culture of Western Kentucky is not experiencing.

"Western Kentucky is a completely different kind of economy," Gentry said. "You don't necessarily have the push for economic conservatism there that you do in Northern Kentucky."

Amanda York is The Post's Frankfort bureau chief. She can be reached at amyork@bellsouth.net.

[goldstategop]

In 2006, the Kentucky House Of Representatives will go GOP. The Senate is already in Republican hands. And they've got a terrific Governor in Ernie Fletcher.

[txkev]

GOP trend familiar (Love of W. or disgust with Democratic Party?)


Aren't they one in the same?

[goldstategop]

The Democrats used to be able to count on Kentucky. Now its like Indiana. And West Virginia, which used to go Democratic in every election except for 1984, is now trending GOP too.

[Cincinatus' Wife]

I agree.

I don't see the distinction.

Bush lives his political beliefs.

[Cincinatus' Wife]

Can you imagine Hillary taking any states in the south?

[wotan]

GOP trend familiar (Love of W. or disgust with Democratic Party?) Aren't they one in the same?

I don't think they are the same. I was struck on election night by states George Bush was just getting by in, while other Republicans were crushing the Democrats. Ohio is a good example. Many conservatives are very unhappy with Bush's loose spending, his unwillingness to take firm action against illegal immigration, and his nation building exercise in Iraq.

[GeronL]

well, of course its not because people agree with the Republican Party... nah, couldn't be

[fieldmarshaldj]

2004

2000

I seemed to notice that while we picked up some uber-labor Eastern KY counties such as Harlan and Letcher between '00 and '04, there was the odd shift to Kerry in that semi-circle of 5 counties in the upper east (including Wolfe, Menifee, Carter, Rowan, and Bath Counties), and I can't seem to account for why that happened. At first, I thought it might've been State Sen. Mongiardo's people coming out for him, but his district is down in the SE corner of labor counties that went for Dubya (not a single county in Mongiardo's district went for Kerry). Anybody care to take a thwack at that query ?

[EQAndyBuzz]

All I been reading about is how the Democrats need to find religion. This is the biggest load of crap ever. The Democrats need to purge themselves of the liberal wing of the party and come back to the table with people like Truman.

2006 will define America.

[tkathy]

IMO this election was just as much disgust with the dims as anything else.

Social ideologues should not interpret it as a chance to run amok.

It is an historic opportunity to prove that reps are class acts compared to the trash acts of the left.

[ken5050]

A good article overall, but surprised that it ignored the most obvious barrometer of GOP growth...Ann Northrup's easy win, after several close elections...she was one of the most heavily targeted Pubbies..in what was viewed as a Dem leaning district..not any more..

[goldstategop]

Give it time. Another few election cycles, people in neighboring WVA will also start voting at the state and local level for Republicans. It took until this year for Louisiana to send its first Republican to the U.S Senate since Reconstruction.

[Cincinatus' Wife]

As Bush said, "The people are behind me."

The time to act is now.

[FITZ]

All I been reading about is how the Democrats need to find religion.

Kerry did find religion --- some kind of Catholic-like cult which believes abortion is a sacrament which should be paid for by the government (taxpayers that is) -- similar to the new Baptist religion the Clintons created and used. Kerry couldn't have tried to promote his new religion enough. Democrats don't seem to realize that the new generations are more and more the offspring of Conservatives who don't kill their offspring. Conservatives have a Darwin advantage.

[Clintonfatigued]

Anne Northup is now a rising star. I expect she'll be elected to the Senate in 2008 when Mitch McConnell retires.

[ken5050]

IMHO, I believe thay there may be some truth to the rumors of Bunning's health being less than good. Now that Ky has a GOP governor, I'd look for Bunning to retire in a year..and have Northrup appointed to the seat.

[Kuksool]

I was shocked by the near defeat by Bunning. He definitely should stay out of the spot light. In an open Senate race, a GOP pickup is no cake walk. Expect Ben Chandler to run for Senate when the opportunity arises.

[Atlantian]

We've seen a complete switch to GOP in Georgia too. In 2002 we elected our first GOP governor in 130 yrs. He convinced enough Dem Senators to switch to get control of the Senate. Now the GOP won the state House. The first time the House is GOP since Reconstruction.

And to top it off Cynthia McKinney gets re-elected and is now one of the top Dems representing GA-- A complete embarrassment.