Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Dick Morris is really going after the exit poll scandal with a vengance!!
The Hill ^ | November 4, 2004 | Dick Morris

Posted on 11/04/2004 11:30:46 AM PST by Nascardude

click here to read article


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-6061-80 ... 181-182 next last
To: Nascardude

Thank GOD the internet was here and was able to start looking at the leaked information about the polls enabling people to start raising questions. Remember, danny boy was blaming the internet for the descrepencies and not the fact the exit polls were bogus. I'd suggest that this points to at least implied truth to the conspiracy concept. Of late, when danny boy is caught, he immediately blames the internet in an attempt to shift the blame.


41 posted on 11/04/2004 11:43:22 AM PST by Trepz
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Nascardude
It's not necessarily bias that led to these bad results. There are really three major groups in the electorate: Liberal Base, Conservative Base, and Swing Voters. In most previous elections, the liberals have turned out their base in large numbers, the larger but less excitable conservative base turns out in similar numbers (but as a smaller percentage of the whole), and swing voters end up deciding the election.

So the exit pollster decided to save money by measuring only the third group, swing voters (by doing exit polling outside of polling places with lots of swing voters). And he found that they were not breaking for Bush enough for Bush to win. He completely missed the GOTV effort and the conservative turnout.

It's conceivable that flawed mechanics, and not bias, led to the failure of the exit pollsters.

42 posted on 11/04/2004 11:43:35 AM PST by xm177e2 (Stalinists, Maoists, Ba'athists, Pacifists: Why are they always on the same side?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Nascardude

This is the first time I completely agree with him, and I am angry. I hope there is an official investigation.


43 posted on 11/04/2004 11:43:49 AM PST by rushmom
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Nascardude

Freepers need to stay on this. The leftist pollsters were systematically trying to intellectually disenfranchise republican voters.


44 posted on 11/04/2004 11:44:33 AM PST by Hyacinthus Forma
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Nascardude

Rush is now reporting that the first exit polls actually came from the hanoi john campaign.


45 posted on 11/04/2004 11:45:07 AM PST by AxelPaulsenJr (Pray Daily For Our Troops and President Bush)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Nascardude
I agree with Morris. This was an effort to illegally fix an election. If a crime was committed the ones en voled should be prosecuted.
46 posted on 11/04/2004 11:45:25 AM PST by Uncle Hal
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Nascardude
Suspects foul play????????????????????????

The MSM? Oh pshaw they wouldn't do that would they?

Oops! How'd that rednect expression get in there?

47 posted on 11/04/2004 11:45:40 AM PST by Sunshine Sister
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Nascardude

Dick Moris is one lib who knows his stuff


48 posted on 11/04/2004 11:45:49 AM PST by jperspective (KevinE)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Republican Red
Found the Spectator article

Spectator

According to at least three sources, one inside the Kerry campaign, and two outside of it, but with ties to senior Kerry advisers, some of the "early polling numbers" were in fact direct reports from Kerry campaign or Democratic Party operatives on the ground in such critical states as Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, and Wisconsin. According to a Washington lobbyist with knowledge of the numbers, the numbers were packaged together so as to appear to be exit poll results. They were then scrubbed through several sources to land in the lap of sympathetic bloggers who these operatives believed would put the numbers up with little question.
49 posted on 11/04/2004 11:45:55 AM PST by Republican Red (A Global Freak'n Test ???????)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 37 | View Replies]

To: Nascardude
That AND Kerry's 180 form.

Inquiring minds and all that. ;)

50 posted on 11/04/2004 11:46:12 AM PST by G.Mason (A war mongering, UN hating, military industrial complex loving, Al Qaeda incinerating American.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Nascardude
Except 2000, 2002, & 2004........

Exit polls are almost never wrong.

51 posted on 11/04/2004 11:46:20 AM PST by Ready4Freddy (Carpe Sharpei !)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Grendel9

Warren Mitofsky did the polling for the networks. Mitofsky is an ex-CBS News hack with a lefty agenda. 'nuff said.


52 posted on 11/04/2004 11:46:46 AM PST by Eric in the Ozarks
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: Nascardude

The excuse so far seems to be the "bad sample" excuse or the "Kerry people voted early" excuse, but neither dog will hunt. As Morris points out, they got SIX STATES WRONG. I believe it hurt Bush and he won anyway.


53 posted on 11/04/2004 11:47:40 AM PST by JWinNC
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Nascardude
As a lawyer - I suggest that the members of the media consortium look to their contract with the pooled polling service - and sue for damages (and as a way to establish the facts of how this error was made).

As a utility researcher (prior to graduating from law school) we routinely sampled about 300 households in order to forecast the demands created by 300,000 residential customers. The key to getting accurate information from a small sample is careful selection of the sample, stratification and careful validation. None of this is rocket science - and, contrary to Michael Barone's disclaimers on FNC, the statistical mechanics are not arcane - many people working in the marketing and credit analytics fields understand the methods involved.

I would also look to Susan Estrich and any other pundit/consultant/campaign people who were interviewed during the afternoon and early evening who hyped the bogus information - they had to know.

 

54 posted on 11/04/2004 11:47:44 AM PST by Wally_Kalbacken
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: day10

BAWHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHHAHA! I love it! Stupid HELLywood think we're the stupid ones, NOPE they're the IDIOTS!!


55 posted on 11/04/2004 11:48:05 AM PST by RoseofTexas
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: Nascardude

How soon we forget! The 2000 elections were beset by EXACTLY the same problems, remember it led the MSM to call the state of Florida for Gore before the polls had closed in all of the state? I have said frequently that I thought it was far from an honest mistake, or computer problem, that it was a deliberate ploy by someone to trick the networks into calling the state, albeit incorrectly, and thereby interfere with the election. I would start by finding out who worked the Florida stats for 2000 and then see if any of them were on the team for 2004.


56 posted on 11/04/2004 11:48:23 AM PST by jwpjr
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: axel f

Ping


57 posted on 11/04/2004 11:48:54 AM PST by Sunshine Sister
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 47 | View Replies]

To: Nascardude

BTTT


58 posted on 11/04/2004 11:49:01 AM PST by EdReform (Free Republic - helping to keep our country a free republic. Thank you for your financial support!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Nascardude
The Dickinator
59 posted on 11/04/2004 11:49:07 AM PST by Mannaggia l'America
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Nascardude

The major networks were wishful thinking. hehehehe!


60 posted on 11/04/2004 11:49:43 AM PST by lilylangtree (Veni, Vidi, Vici)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-6061-80 ... 181-182 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson