Looking at historical numbers (ignore Perot '92), the GOP seems to have an absolute floor of about 40%, the 'rats have about 43%. The battle is over the remaining 17% (minus those who vote for third party losers candidates) -- GWB won that battle 11-5-1.
Yeah - I was just guestimating the 45% (which is pretty close to 43%).
But actually the 43% figure makes it even more interesting - with kerry @48%, that means there were 5%, not 3% of voters that should have been tapped (war-time, relatively good economy).
Makes Coulters point even stronger.