Posted on 11/03/2004 4:21:13 PM PST by M 91 u2 K
HOW THE VOTE MOVED: Kerry won the center and the left. Over to Noam: Not only did Kerry win by an 86-13 margin among self-described liberals, he also won by a 55-45 margin among self-described moderates. So how'd Bush pull it off? He won 84-15 among self-described conservatives, and, more importantly, he made sure conservatives comprised a much bigger chunk of the electorate than they did in 2000. (Conservatives comprised about 34 percent of the electorate yesterday, versus 29 percent in 2000 -- a huge shift, raw numbers-wise.) Anyone anticipating a conciliatory second Bush term should stop and consider how much Bush owes his base. There you have the Rove strategy in a nutshell. If the ideological demographics had stayed the same as they had been in 2000, Kerry might have won. Two other small points: all those predictions of gay marriage moving African-Americans toward the Republicans didn't pan out. All those predictions of the youth vote going for Kerry did pan out - but they were trounced by seniors shifting to Bush (I think the gay issue mattered there as well). The GOP's weak spot is that they aren't winning over the young; and that they won't have gays to kick around for ever. I notice that in California and Massachusetts, marriage equality candidates all won big. The polarization continues. Let federalism work. - 4:19:57 PM
HIS FIRST MOVE: Not too encouraging: The Bush administration announced Wednesday that it will run out of maneuvering room to manage the government's massive borrowing needs in two weeks, putting more pressure on Congress to raise the debt ceiling when it convenes for a special post-election session. Oh, well.
MARY'S BACK! With her wife on the stage with the Cheneys and Bushes.
WAR WAS NOT THE ISSUE: I have to say it's almost funny that for the past few months, I've been harangued about the selfishness of gays who put their issues ahead of pressing matters like the war, and yet the exit polls show something rather different. The gay vote for Bush was - amazingly - only slightly down on 2000. Many of them obviously thought the war or the economy was pre-eminent. But for evangelicals, the issue of "moral values" trumped the war! It wasn't about the war on terror for the Bush base. It was about the war on gay unions. Oh, the ironies. - 3:53:38 PM
EMAIL OF THE DAY I: "To hell with being gracious, EAT SHIT SULLIVAN! Despite all your oh so noble commentary today, when things started getting rough, you bailed. I hope Soros eased you pain with a little green."
EMAIL OF THE DAY II: "I am a 25 year-old gay man, and I can't even describe how saddened I am today by the re-election of President Bush and the numerous state amendments banning gay marriage that were passed on election day. I'm not really angry... just very sad and afraid. I don't know what country I live in anymore. I thought this was the land of freedom. I thought I was free to pursue my own happiness. But right now I feel like my country hates me. What is going on?"
QUOTE OF THE DAY: "So, George W. Bush won. And he's done so by a solid margin. The Democrats' attempted coup managed to last all of eight hours. Not only is the President the first candidate to win a majority of the vote in a Presidential Election since 1988, but he also won more popular votes than any other candidate in history. The Democrats spent months telling us that high voter turnout would equal a win for them but, as it turns out, when 60% of the electorate showed up at the polls it translated into a Bush lead of nearly four million votes. In short: take that, you sons of bitches. The Democrats are now talking about how this is a signal that Bush should 'bring the country together'. Translated into American, this means 'now that you've won, you should surrender to us.' The hell with that. We've won. Winning means not having to say you're sorry... Those who didn't support Bush can go and perform a certain anatomically impossible act. They lost, now they can sit in the back of the bus. Thank God Almighty." - Adam Yoshida, calling it as he sees it, on his popular blog. - 3:23:26 PM
A MANDATE FOR CULTURE WAR: That's Bill Bennett's conclusion. He won't be the only one. What we're seeing, I think, is a huge fundamentalist Christian revival in this country, a religious movement that is now explicitly political as well. It is unsurprising, of course, given the uncertainty of today's world, the devastating attacks on our country, and the emergence of so many more liberal cultures in urban America. And it is completely legitimate in this country for such views to be represented in public policy, however much I disagree with them. But the intensity of the passion, and the inherently totalist nature of religiously motivated politics means deep social conflict if we are not careful. Our safety valve must be federalism. We have to live and let live. As blue states become more secular, and red states become less so, the only alternative to a national religious war is to allow different states to pursue different options. That goes for things like decriminalization of marijuana, abortion rights, stem cell research and marriage rights. Forcing California and Mississippi into one model is a recipe for disaster. Federalism is now more important than ever. I just hope that Republican federalists understand this. I fear they don't. - 1:07:45 PM
ACCOUNTABILITY: Here's an email with which I concur entirely: I didn't vote for Bush for lots of reasons. But it seems to me that maybe the result, much as it was not what I wanted, will be good for the country. We are in the middle of a war whose outcome is very much in doubt. We have a fiscal policy that may or may not prove successful. Issues that have seemed remote to many like abortion and the Patriot Act's definition of rights and privacy are likely to become more immediate over the next few years. Had we changed leadershop now, it would have been difficult to assign accountability, for good or bad, for these policies and decisions. I always feared, in fact, that Kerry would have had little chance of success in the face of a conservative chorus of "everything was going in the right direction in Iraq when we handed it over to you". Whatever the result, over thee next few years we all will be better able to asses the success or failure of many things that are unfinished now, and hold one team accountable. Exactly. My main fear with a Kerry victory was that the hard right would never have given him a chance in the war, and would have savaged him as commander-in-chief in order to pave the way for a victory in 2008. Ratcheting the country back to fiscal sanity would also have been a thankless task. Now, Bush will face the consequences of his own policies and we will be able to judge him on that. He has no excuses any more. I hope he succeeds in Iraq, in reforming social security. But no one should give him an easy pass if he fails. - 11:31:35 AM
THE IMPACT ON GAYS: I've been trying to think of what to say about what appears to be the enormous success the Republicans had in using gay couples' rights to gain critical votes in key states. In eight more states now, gay couples have no relationship rights at all. Their legal ability to visit a spouse in hospital, to pass on property, to have legal protections for their children has been gutted. If you are a gay couple living in Alabama, you know one thing: your family has no standing under the law; and it can and will be violated by strangers. I'm not surprised by this. When you put a tiny and despised minority up for a popular vote, the minority usually loses. But it is deeply, deeply dispiriting nonetheless. A lot of gay people are devastated this morning, and terrified. We have seen, and not for the first time, how using fear of a minority can be so effective a tool in building a political movement. The single most important issue for Republican voters, according to exit polls, was not the war on terror or Iraq or the economy. It was "moral values." Karl Rove understood the American psyche better than I did. By demonizing gay couples, the Republicans were able to bring in whole swathes of new anti-gay believers into their party. With new senators Jim DeMint and Tom Coburn, two of the most anti-gay politicians in America, we can only brace ourselves for what is now coming.
FEDERALISM WORKS: At the same time, gays can still appeal to the fair-minded center. After fanning the flames of fear for much of the year, the president himself recently came out in favor of civil unions. That puts him at odds with the initiatives passed so easily across the country. I do not believe a majority exists for denying gay couples legally protected relationships. The national exit polls showed that 27 percent support marriage rights, 37 percent support civil unions and only 35 percent want to keep gay couples from having any rights at all. There are still many states where it is safe to be a gay couple or an openly gay person. We have the right to marry in one state, and in that state, pro-equality legislators were all re-elected handily. In California, we are on the brink of having almost-equality under the law. Around the civilized world, gay relationships are increasingly accepted as worthy of dignity and respect. The passage of so many anti-gay amendments in so many states reduces the need, by any rational measure, for a federal amendment that would scar the Constitution with discrimination. We need therefore to be even more emphatic about the need for a federalist response to an issue best left to the states. If we can avoid the FMA, we can live to fight another day.
STAND TALL: But one more thing is important. The dignity of our lives and our relationships as gay people is not dependent on heterosexual approval or tolerance. Our dignity exists regardless of their fear. We have something invaluable in this struggle: the knowledge that we are in the right, that our loves are as deep and as powerful and as God-given as their loves, that our relationships truly are bonds of faith and hope that are worthy, in God's eyes and our own, of equal respect. Being gay is a blessing. The minute we let their fear and ignorance enter into our own souls, we lose. We have gained too much and come through too much to let ourselves be defined by others. We must turn hurt back into pride. Cheap, easy victories based on untruth and fear and cynicism are pyrrhic ones. In time, they will fall. So hold your heads up high. Do not give in to despair. Do not let the Republican party rob you of your hopes. This is America. Equality will win in the end. - 10:46:57 AM
This guy is supposedly 25 years old, yet apparently nobody ever mentioned to him that he was NOT free to marry one of his boyfriends--not just in the USA, but (a couple weird outposts in Europe excepted), noplace on the face of the planet. Where did he grow up, San Francisco???
Bush beat Kerry by an average of 58.9% to 40% in his winning states, while Kerry only beat GW an average of 54.2% to 44.7%. Bush beat Kerry bigger in Red states than Kerry beat Bush in blue states. (I'm sure there is some satistical phrase that communicates this better).
These fools still don't get it and probably never will. The gay marriage bans aren't "war on homosectionals" as much as they're for protecting families. Gays can go and bugger themselves silly and no one will flog them or throw them in jail or burn them at the stake. The government will ignore them and leave them to their own devices.
The issue is that now they want the government to endorse their relationships and give them the same benefits as are granted to married couples in the name of fairness and equality.
Gay unions are not the equal of heterosexual marriages. Hetero marriages produce offspring and society has an interest in the welfare of strong family units.
Gay unions are by definition self centered. If they want to do that, they can do it and no one will interfere. But expecting society to endorse their behavior with tax breaks and other privioedges is asking too much. Without a doubt, moral issues trumped national security in this election.
Wow. Just wow. How'd Bush "make sure" that conservative identification rose 5% since 2000? Did he have Karl Rove implant chips in people's heads? Did he kidnap their children and threaten their lives if they didn't "comprise a much bigger chunk of the electorate"? He's completely delusional. It's like he thinks that people voted for Bush because he made them be conservative, rather than Bush won the election because more people became conservatives and therefore voted for him. Qwinn
Well said!
I wonder if Kerry will blame it on the NRA...
I care as much what those lying exit polls say as I do what Dan Rather's fake memos say.
So: whatcha wearin' to Kerry's upcoming inauguration, then, Andy? Something black and elegantly simple... or just the sackcloth and ashes you have on right now? :)
Andy is unhappy because now he won't be best man at the Kerry/Edwards inaugeral wedding.
I agree with this. I think all of these issues should be resolved by state legislatures, not state courts, not federal courts. But one suspects Sullivan would be ready to toss federalism out the window in a heartbeat if he thought the left was winning on homosexual marriage.
The homosexual 'marriage' issue is colored by the Full Faith and Credit Clause of the US Constitution. It makes states give Full Faith and Credit to the laws of other states. This limits states' rights and homosexuals were happy to use it to force homosexual marriage down the throats of states that did not want it--when it looked like a winning approach. Now that it looks like this is a losing approach, they embrace federalism to save homosexual marriage in, at least, Massachussets.
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