Posted on 11/03/2004 12:29:48 PM PST by Michael Goldsberry
WASHINGTON (AFP) - Scarred from their second defeat at the hands of George W. Bush, the Democratic party will be searching for names who can take on the Republicans in four years. And an obvious one is Clinton.
Many Democrats and experts believe that if Senator John Kerry (news - web sites) had the same charisma as ex-president Bill Clinton (news - web sites) he would have easily taken revenge this week for Bush's controversial defeat of Al Gore (news - web sites) in 2000.
But Hillary Clinton (news - web sites) is the most quoted name for the next contender.
University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato believes there are several reasons why Kerry lost Tuesday's vote.
"One, he is too liberal, well to the left of the American mainstream on the critical social and cultural issues such as abortion, gay rights and gun control."
More important for Sabato was personality.
"John Kerry is no Bill Clinton. There is very little warmth there, and people didn't warm to him. A moderate Democratic candidate with personal warmth would have defeated George W. Bush easily."
The new defeat is certain to lead to some painful soul-searching within the Democratic party.
After Bill Clinton's victory in 1992 and re-election in 1996, his vice-president Al Gore was narrowly defeated by Bush in 2000 even though he won the popular vote.
The Democrats were hit hard in 2002 mid-term elections, losing control of the Senate and seeing the Republicans extend their advantage in House of Representatives.
Bush's new victory left a bitter taste for many Democrats who look back to the Clinton years with affection even though the ex-president divided the country with many of his actions.
Bill Clinton electrified a crowd of tens of thousands when he returned from a quadruple heart by-pass to appear at a rally with Kerry eight days before the vote.
Though thinner, Clinton was given rapturous applause after castigating the Bush administration and telling adoring fans "my fellow Americans, we can do better."
Clinton remains wildly popular with core Democratic voters, especially black Americans, a voting bloc Kerry was never able to touch in the same way.
Kerry has been criticized as a one-dimensional campaigner compared to Clinton.
Now Hillary Clinton, the senator for New York state, is likely to dominate the Democratic party debate while she makes up her mind whether to stand.
"Hillary Clinton is the natural heir apparent" of Bill, according to Allan Lichtman, a political science professor at the American University in Washington.
Wildly popular among Democratic loyalists and able to raise vast amounts of campaign funds, Hillary Clinton has "worked very, very hard not to play into a caricature of herself," according to a Democratic party strategist who asked not to be named.
She is however the Democrat that hard-core Republicans most love to hate.
"The Republicans will very happily reverse to a caricature, and she becomes a lot less appealing when she puts herself forward" as a candidate, the strategist said.
So there is an outside chance that the Democratic party's 2008 presidential candidate is a long shot bet.
Barack Obama, a 43-year-old rising star in the party who became the lone black American senator in Tuesday's election, is talked about as a possible future candidate.
The Democrats "need only nominate a moderate candidate with warmth," said Sabato, pointing to figures like telegenic Indiana Senator Evan Bayh.
I agree with you entirely. I think courtesy, especially in these contentious times, is critically important. I want a team player in there. Yet, I know he's willing to stand alone if need be on important issues.
08/24/04 – A HOLLYWOOD fundraiser who organised events featuring such celebrities as former US president Bill Clinton was today jailed for more than five years for fraud. Aaron Tonken, 38, was sentenced to 63 months behind bars after admitting fraudulently diverting hundreds of thousands of dollars destined for charity galas and using the cash to pay off his own credit card bills. <…snip…>During his time as a top fundraiser, Tonken helped arrange events for Mr Clinton and his wife, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton in August 2000. Tonken struck a secret plea deal with prosecutors that resulted in today's sentencing by US District Judge Dale Fischer in Los Angeles.Now…keep in mind the secret plea deal and read these stories:
04/19/04 - The Federal Election Commission has opened a formal probe into a star-studded Aug. 12, 2000 Hollywood fundraiser for then-first lady Hillary Clinton's Senate campaign, Fox News Channel reported on Sunday. And some say the development is at least partly responsible for Sen. Clinton's claim that she's not interested in joining John Kerry's presidential ticket.The allegations themselves are not new: Two of the event's organizers, Hollywood producer Peter Paul and charity fundraiser Aaron Tonken, have detailed a series of transactions undertaken in conjunction with Hillary's campaign that could violate FEC regulations, with Paul charging that the campaign failed to report nearly $2 million he spent producing the event.
But months before Paul was returned to the U.S. to stand trial in the stock case, Hollywood fundraiser Aaron Tonken began cooperating with federal probers. Tonken has said that he's a star witness against the Clintons in a federal grand jury probe in New York into Mr. Clinton's Marc Rich pardon - and has been cooperating with the U.S. attorney in Los Angeles who's probing his fundraising activities.
FEC Heat Hurts Hillary's VP Chances
New York Sen. Hillary Clinton surely hopes that history isn't repeating itself with the raid conducted by the FBI last month on another warehouse; this one chock full of documents from her 2000 Senatorial campaign."The documents were seized in a May 30 raid of a California storage facility containing documents of Peter Paul, the entrepreneur who funded Hillary Clinton's Senate campaign with over $2 million dollars in direct, in-kind contributions which were never reported by Hillary Clinton or her Senate campaign, as required by law," revealed the public interest law firm Judicial Watch in a press release late last week.
FBI Raids Hillary's Warehouse in Whitewater Deja Vu
The Bush administration has quietly done an about-face on allegations that New York Sen. Hillary Clinton broke campaign finance laws in 2000 - with the Justice Department preparing to extradite one-time Clinton fund-raiser Peter Paul to the U.S. as part of a plea deal for his testimony. The sudden action on Paul's case comes just weeks after reports surfaced that former Hollywood fund-raiser Aaron Tonken has supplied damaging testimony about Hillary Clinton's fund-raising practices.
"I'm a star witness against President and Mrs. Clinton," Tonken claimed in a recent report on his case in Vanity Fair magazine, explaining that prosecutors wanted his testimony about" "fundraising activities that I've done on behalf of the Clintons." The exact nature of Tonken's allegations against Sen. Clinton remains secret, the magazine said. But the celebrity moneyman is known to have been involved in the August 2000 fund raiser that is at the heart of Peter Paul's allegations.
Peter F. Paul, the flamboyant Hollywood entrepreneur who says Hillary Rodham Clinton has hidden almost $2 million of in-kind contributions he made to her campaign in 2000, is back from Brazil and promising to raise a ruckus about the New York senator as he fights bizarre securities and bank-fraud charges on which he's been indicted. Aaron Tonken, a political operative in Hollywood and a former protégé of Paul under indictment for a variety of alleged sharp deals with the rich and famous, also is promising to tell everything he knows about behind-the-scenes shenanigans of Clinton and many others.
Clintons' Fall Guy May Turn the Tables (Peter Paul)
Mr. Paul has substantial, documentary evidence detailing his close relationship with the Clintons and his funding of the Hollywood tribute, including cancelled checks, hand-written thank you notes from the Clintons, and photographs. Also named in the complaint is Clinton fundraiser David Rosen, Clinton friend James Levin, and Hollywood celebrity fundraiser Aaron Tonken, who currently is under criminal investigation for his role in other Hollywood fundraisers. As a result of Mr. Paul’s disclosures, federal authorities have launched an investigation into the Clintons and other matters. Mr. Paul, who is facing alleged (and related) stock and bank fraud charges, remains eager to cooperate with federal authorities.
As it is, Obama is superficial person, glib and well-educated, who trades on an appearance of substantiality. There's nothing of true significance there.
"I'm usually loathe to give advice to Democrats, but let's be blunt here -- the dumbest thing that party ever did was hitch its wagon to a jack@ss from Arkansas who was elected to the White House with 43% of the popular vote."
Yup. And I'm eternally grateful they did!
THE CLINTONS HAVE VERY LITTLE LOVE IN THEIR HEARTS FOR ANYONE BUT THEMSELVES.
THE DEMS ARE REALLY DISFUNCTIONAL.
-THEY HAVE NO MESSAGE
-THE KERRY PEOPLE HATE MCAWFUL AND WOULD HAVE REPLACE HIM
-CLINTON WILL GET SHELLACKED IN 2008 BY GULIANI/MCCAIN
MY ONLY HOPE NOW IS THAT THE BUSHIES MOVE BACK TOWARDS FISCAL CONSERVATISM NOW THAT THEY HAVE A MANDATE. GET RID OF THE EDUCATION DEPARTMENT, PRIVATIZE SOME SOCIAL SEC, PRIVATIZE THE TSA, CUT THE DEFICIT, PROTECT THE HOMELAND
"Other names I expect to see in the future for the dems... Obama and Harold Ford. Very nice, smooth dems with nice personalities with quiet leftist agendas. We need to have young candidates in the pipeline too."
Obama is not a quiet leftist. He shouts Marxism from the highest mountain. He is dangerous because he is articulate and can beguile the gullible. But make no mistake about it: He is Marxist to the very core.
Ummm...this author either can't count or won't acknowledge the obvious. The defeats I count are:
Ann Richards and the Texas Dems, twice.
The national Dems in 2000, 2002 and now 2004.
If Dubya's still got some competitive fire left in him for 2006, look out Dems!
Hillary can go for longevity in the Senate or a possible flash in the Presidency.
Senate leadership is no small position.
I've never seen her as a leader...only as an operator. I don't think she could do it.
The Toon's popularity is way overrated. He only won in 1992 because of Perot. In 1996, after four years in office, he still couldn't crack 50% of the vote, something George Bush did yesterday with room to spare. The Rat party suffered historic losses under the Toon's reign, while the GOP has expanded its strength under Bush.
The Toon may be wildly popular with hardcore Rats but he never won over a majority of the public.
"As it is, Obama is superficial person, glib and well-educated, who trades on an appearance of substantiality. There's nothing of true significance there."
Which is exactly why the Dims see him as their rising star.
"The Democrats "need only nominate a moderate candidate with warmth," said Sabato, pointing to figures like telegenic Indiana Senator Evan Bayh."
I heard Sabato any number of times during the campaign, and I don't recall him emphasizing Kerry's lack of charm as a crucial flaw. In fact I think at one point he pretty much called it for Kerry. This is a classic example IMO of a media-fabricated expert doing his post-hoc blather. Disappointing--I thought he would have something useful to say about the outcome.
Hey Larry, there are no moderate democrats.
Like Dubya has been saying about Kerry's record;
"You can run - but you cannot hide!"So yeah, bring her on. It'll be fun seeing her self destruct in 'fly-over' country. Her disdain for the 'little people' will go over real well when they're told she wants to make them irrelevant by eliminating the Electoral College.
Why do people believe she has any more of a chance than Kerry does?
Not if the media reported the news (on the economy, Iraq, everything) impartially. Quotes from this fellow Sabato, who I suspect is a liberal Democrat, are reported much too much.
RIGHT ON !!!!!
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