It would be a big shift. This, however, brings us back to the Texas scenario. If they can do a coordinated strike against key points in several facilities, it could both cause a substantial number of casualities as well as impact the economy (which place had the big disaster in the 50's?). But to pick a natural gas pipeline or even several, would bring a low return for the risk involved. They've only got so much resources and would want to maximize them to get the most bang for the buck.
new thread about the "night of power" on the board we've been watching. Some of it's in arabic.
In the past 20 minutes 3 sets of 3 chinook helicopters have flown by here (heading south). I've never seen 1 group, let alone 3, in this area.
We have made it through election week with no incidents. The Israeli-Palestinan issue has the potential to become unstable due to the impending death of Arafat. Let me know if you want on or off the Ping list.
Current National Homeland Defense threat level is YELLOW
11/07/04 Local Threat Level ORANGE for NYC, N. New Jersey, D.C No Change since 8/1/04
1. Attack threat windows
11/07/04 Primary Window: We have exited the election window. However, with the end of Ramadan and the ‘Night of Power’ along with other indicators, I reccomend another week of vigilance - through Nov 12.
10/23/04 Secondary windows: Nov 24 - Jan 1 - Thanksgiving / Christmas Holiday season.
January 20, 2005 - Presidential inauguration
Feb. 6 Super Bowl in Jacksonville, Fla.
2. Attack Indicators
11/07/04 Jihadi chat traffic suggests that there is another OBL tape waiting to be released.
There are other posts seem to indicate that the posters have some sort of inside information about an attack to occur either in the United States, Iraq, or Afghanistan. These posts need to be evaluated objectively and not over react. There is a high probability that most of the posts are bravado of the type seen so often in the past. AQ knows the necessity of operational security of which communications security is a big part of their success. However, events surrounding 911 suggest that from this kind of chatter (Rumor intelligence - RUMINT) we may glean some key pieces of information. So in this context, lets review some of these postings.
The posters express that they aren't sure who is going to be carrying out this attack, but they have heard that an attack will be carried out in the last days of Ramadan. (Tracking Terrorism). Additional message traffic evaluated by TM has jihadi’s being told to avoid internet cafe’s, only contacting each other on SH (secure host) sites. Potenially cryptic references were made regarding Texas and the targeting of petro-chemical sites. Additional responses suggested a strike on one of the ‘odd’ days in the end or Ramadan, Nov 9 (11/9.......9/11). (FreeRepublic Threat Matrix)
Other internet sources are reporting Jihadi traffic suggesting that AQ will launch a biochemical attack in the heart of Times Square, targeting MTV studios, and highly populated areas such as The Mall of America. Attack is said to happen 11 days after election day if Bush is reelected to correspond with September 11th. The number 11th corresponds with Al-Qaeda's plans to launch a biochemical attack. (http://www.dilby.com/article/osama.htm)
Over the last two months, the CIA has lowered the prospect of a major al-Qaida attack. Intelligence sources said information that was relayed to the U.S. intelligence community of a specific attack this summer has been discredited. DHS has not raised the alert status anywhere in the US in response to these internet threats.
Terror attacks have occured during Ramadan and the ‘night of power’ is an expecially potent period for a potential attack. The government has been very sensitive to this in the past.
3. Current Terrorist Operations
Al-Qa'ida
11/06/04 Osama bin Laden might not have had the means to carry out a mass casualty attack on the United States on the eve of the elections, reports Geostrategy-Direct, the global intelligence news service.
U.S. intelligence analysts believe this was the reason why bin Laden released a videotape to discuss al-Qaida and the American presidential elections. They said bin Laden, in his first video appearance in three years, wanted to bolster the morale of his followers who have been waiting for such a strike.
But there is another videotape released by al-Qaida that has U.S. intelligence worried. And that is a 75-minute tape by a U.S. national termed "Azzam the American." Azzam claims to be an al-Qaida member and warns that the streets of America will "run with blood."
It is thought that OBL is passing future US operations to Adam Gadahn and Adnan El Shukrijumah, a former Florida resident and an al-Qaida operative sought by the United States for more than a year. This assessment has been based upon the release of the ABC news tape last month.
http://www.wnd.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=41322
11/05/04 "The coming days will show you that the one you preferred will lead you to an unbearable hell," said the group calling itself the Abu Hafs al-Masri Brigades after the Al-Qaeda military chief killed in Afghanistan (news - web sites) in October 2001.
http://www.trackingterrorism.com/news/default.asp?mode=shownews&id=701
al-Masri issued numerous threats against Italy this summer, none of which were carried out. The authenticity of this group is questioned by authorities.
Iraq
11/07/04 It is being reported that parts of Iraq are under martial law in support of coalition action against Fallujah.
11/06/04 There have been threats to use chemical weapons against US forces if they attack Fallujah. These threats have been posted on various internet web sites.
11/05/04 A statement attributed to the Al-Qaeda group of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi on an Islamist website Friday called for the release of kidnapped British aid worker Margaret Hassan in Iraq "unless she is proven to be a collaborator".
"We call on those responsible for her captivity to release her unless she is proven to be a collaborator" with the US-led forces, said the statement, whose authenticity could not be confirmed.
"If this (collaboration) is proven, they should show it clearly to people lest our (Islamic) religion is accused of things that are not true," the statement said.
http://www.turkishpress.com/news.asp?id=32970
Afghanistan
11/07/04 Taliban terrorists continue to threaten the lives of kidnapped several UN elections workers if Coalition forces do not leave the country. Negotiations are under way though.
Israel
11/07/04 The status of Arafat is still uncertain, however it is believed to be very grave. It is very clear that he has not prepared for his death and billions of dollars he is to alledged to have stolen from Palistianian aid will go with him to the grave if he doesn’t recover sufficiently to finalize matters.
11/05/04 Palestinian Prime Minister Ahmed Qureia joined rival Palestinian groups in a call for unity Saturday, hoping they could work together to ensure calm and keep the Gaza Strip from plunging into chaos if Yasser Arafat dies. But in a sign of the challenges ahead, the Islamic militant group Hamas issued what it called an "urgent demand" for a formal role in Palestinian decision making in the post-Arafat era. "This time is very sensitive. It's a historic time. There is no space for any unilateral decisions," Hamas spokesman Sami Abu Zuhri said, alluding to Fatah, Arafat's core organization. http://apnews.myway.com//article/20041106/D866K59O0.html Palestinian Prime Minister Ahmed Qureia (Abu Ala) on Saturday asked Hamas leaders in the Gaza Strip to refrain from launching terrorist attacks in Israel in the absence of Yasser Arafat.
11/05/04 Members of jihadist message boards expressed little sorrow in responding to reports on Yasser Arafat’s declining medical condition and even premature reports of his death. Although a few voices in the discussion showed respect for this “revolutionary leader who dedicated his life to the Palestinian cause,” the majority welcomed his imminent death, either because they resented his corruption and grouped him together with other autocrats in the region, or because he “provided so many services to his beloved Israeli pigs.”
http://www.siteinstitute.org/bin/articles.cgi?ID=publications10204&Category=publications&Subcategory=0
Syria
11/07/04 Syria, which Washington has accused of failing to stop militants entering Iraq, has reached a border cooperation deal with its neighbor, Foreign Minister Farouq al-Shara said on Sunday.
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=worldNews&storyID=6736015
Russia
11/05/04 Russian security forces neutralized a bomb on a natural gas pipeline in the Tver region, Interfax reported Friday. A Russian Interior Ministry source said federal police were examining a section of the Ukhta-Torzhok pipeline in Pogorelovo on Thursday when they discovered and neutralized a homemade bomb near the pipeline. The bomb consisted of an anti-tank grenade, an electric detonator and a clockwork device. Investigators were seeking suspects.
http://washingtontimes.com/upi-breaking/20041105-020644-2871r.htm
Saudi Arabia
11/05/04 Prominent Saudi religious scholars have called on Iraqis to support militants waging holy war against the US-led coalition forces, saying fighting the occupation was a duty and a right.
http://www.jang.com.pk/thenews/nov2004-daily/07-11-2004/main/main16.htm
Netherlands
11/06/04 Dutch officials are promising tougher measures against Islamic radicals, as one lawmaker laments the arrival of "jihad" in the Netherlands. The comments follow the slaying of prominent Dutch filmmaker Theo van Gogh, whose attackers left a note pinned to Theo Van Gogh's body with a knife that threatened Dutch legislators and "enemies of Islam" throughout Europe. A deputy prime minister described the increase in radical Islam as "worse than we thought." The Dutch justice minister is ordering government officials, including Amsterdam's mayor, to hire bodyguards.
http://www.thekcrachannel.com/news/3895921/detail.html
Australia
11/06/04 The federal government has moved to re-list four terrorist organisations and warns that Jemaah Islamiah (JI) may step up its terror campaign with nuclear weapons. Foreign Minister Alexander Downer said any organisation that targeted innocent people, such as JI had in the Bali bombings, was capable of using nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction to further their campaign.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/National/JI-may-use-nukes-next-Downers/2004/11/07/1099781237726.html
United States
11/05/04 Authorities surrounded a house in Lacey Friday evening, after a man in a pickup was denied entry to Fort Lewis, then used the vehicle to strike a guard and flee. Other guards fired shots at the pickup, but apparently no one was hit, and the suspect escaped. The incident began about 2:20 p-m at the fort's Madigan Gate.
http://www.kirotv.com/news/3897123/detail.html
4. Attack method.
11/07/04 No real change in the preferred method of choice of AQ which are bombs - the bigger the better. With the exception of 9/11, car/truck bombs have been widely used. There are special concerns regarding the use by terrorists of the following vehicles:
1. Uhaul type cargo trucks.
2. Gasoline / Propane supply trucks.
3. Emergency vehicles (ambulances, police cars, fire trucks)
5. Personnel
11/07/04 Nothing new to report.
6. Significant meetings canceled:
11/07/04 No new cancellations.
7. Security has been heightened in specific cities
11/07/04 No significant change since 8/11/04. NYC, N. NJ and D.C. are still at threat level ORANGE and DHS continues to review the threat towards these potential targets daily. Specifically identified targets include the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in D.C.; Prudential Financial in Northern New Jersey; and Citigroup buildings and the New York Stock Exchange in New York. I don't look for any change in the status of these locations until after the inauguration at the earliest.
GENERAL: Ongoing work to upgrade security at sea ports and airports.
8. Military operations.
11/07/04 Carrier Battle Groups
Deployed
CV-67 Kennedy 25 Jul 2004 - Persian Gulf
CVN-75 Truman 01 Nov 2004 - Mediterranean Sea
CVN-72 Lincoln 19 Oct 2004 - Pacific Ocean
Surge Ready
CVN-70 Vinson 02 Oct 2004
Basic Training
CVN-68 Nimitz 29 Oct 2004 - Pacific Ocean
CV-63 Kitty Hawk entering Ship's Restricted Availability (SRA) maintenance period following its deployment The other carriers are in post deployment and / or maintenance.
11/07/04 F-117s are still reported to be deployed in S. Korea.
9. Dept of Homeland Scty. / State Department
11/04/04
PUBLIC ANNOUNCEMENT
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE
Office of the Spokesman
This information is current as of today, Sat Nov 06 2004 02:28:46 GMT-0800. UZBEKISTAN
November 4, 2004
This Public Announcement is being issued to alert U.S. citizens to the potential for terrorist actions in Uzbekistan. This Public Announcement updates the Public Announcement of August 24, 2004, and expires on May 4, 2005.
The United States Government has received information that terrorist groups may be planning attacks against U.S. interests in Uzbekistan in the near future. We remind all Americans that terrorists do not distinguish between official and civilian targets. The Department of State urges Americans in Uzbekistan to exercise extreme caution, including avoiding large crowds, celebrations, and places where Westerners generally congregate.
http://travel.state.gov/travel/uzbekistan_announce.html
10. Suspicious Domestic Incidents Not Currently Linked to Specific Terrorism Attempts
11/07/04 Nothing significant to report.
There is still their ongoing threat to bankrupt America. If we have limited gasoline supply, everyone would be affected by it. Not only could it virtually shut down travel within our country, but it would most undoubtedly affect the stock market and the savings of Americans from coast to coast (yes, even and especially in those four blue states). I believe the oil theory discussed here is certainly salient and hopefully has been brought to the attention of the authorities.
PARIS (AP) Yasser Arafat's wife says her husband is alive and claims Palestinian officials are traveling to Paris to "bury him alive."