Posted on 11/02/2004 11:13:02 AM PST by cgk
The Exit Poll Charade
Why Slate is publishing the exit poll numbers
By Jack Shafer
Updated Tuesday, Nov. 2, 2004, at 10:56 AM PT
As this item posts, the first raw exit poll data are streaming from the National Election Pool consortium owned by the Associated Press and the five television networks (CBS, ABC, NBC, Fox, and CNN) to their news divisions and to the newsrooms of NEP subscribers—big city newspapers and other broadcasters.
These early exit poll numbers do not divine the name of the winner. Instead, regard these numbers as a sportswriter does the line scores from the fourth inning of a baseball game. The leading team might win the game, but then again it might not. But having the early data in front of him helps the sportswriter plot the story he thinks he'll need to write at game's end.
As you read this posting, the political reporters at the networks, the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times, NPR, Newsweek, and about two dozen other news outlets are cracking their knuckles over their keyboards, contemplating the story, while statisticians and political analysts at the networks prepare to run the numbers through their computer models to generate a prediction.
(Excerpt) Read more at slate.msn.com ...
CBS posts Geraghty on their site, including a dig at their own network:
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/11/02/opinion/main652957.shtml
"n light of that, expect CBS (and perhaps some other foolish networks) to declare both Florida and New Hampshire for Kerry at this hour, even though the polls are still open. "
It's not a charade, and we basically have nothing to do until the polls start closing, so gimme those exit poll numbers.
relying on exit polling is idiotic.
Do you think AP is going to have volunteers out in moose snort, Iowa, or are they going to have them in the bigger, more liberal cities?
Slate does this every year. I believe this is the exact, word for word piece they ran 4 years ago.
WARNING [KJL]
Do not, again, do not take any exit poll resports too seriously. JUST GET OUT THE VOTE. Exit polls not always reliable, ESPECIALLY early ones. AND, this isn't over until the polls close. So please get to work while there is still time.
DO NOT get depressed. DO NOT get mad. JUST GET OUT THE VOTE.
#6 was for you, sorry.
Between FR hanging and my stupid mouse - I'm deleting my own posts now, too.
Even DU does not allow exit polls to be posted due to their unreliability.
The polls don't close for several hours. Let's all relax.
at least kjlo finally posts a disclaimer she should have posted in the first place.
She should be sent home early today.
Dittos for Ohio. Maybe the Amish buggies haven't gotten to the polling stations yet.
I agree.. considering "the sky is falling" garbage she's writing now that she's "back from lunch." She should've stayed away.
It looks as if that was posted two years ago. VNS doesn't even exist anymore.
Sorry, when I said "it helps that this was posted" -- i meant that link was posted as a reminder as to how unreliable exit polls are in the past.
are=were ;)
THE VNS NO LONGER EXISTS!!! IT WENT THE WAY OF THE DINOSAUR AFTER 2000!!ONLY AP---ONLY AP---REPORTS VOTE TOTALS, PERIOD, END OF STORY.
Whew, I feel much better now. Thanks!
Bush down 4 or 1 or down a lot depending on what is right in the exit polling....hard to believe due to high GOP turnout. Still freaky, but then again, most Republicans vote after work probably.
I ashamed of some the people on this site going into hysterics over the first exit poll results. Did not the DNC say to their workers to proclaim victory no matter what.
I think focusing on the fact that Bush looked confident and Kerry looked despondent is enough until then.
There was an interesting post on DU this morning, warning their members not to take exit polling too seriously.
The post was indicating that exit polling showing the Dems doing well, would bring about complacency.
Then the poster went on to remind the DUers that in 2002 they had all been thrilled with the early exit polling numbers, and as the day and night went on, we know what happened, Republicans just about swept the races.
I felt like it was a really interesting take on exit polling from a Dem perspective, but it is an admonition to us to not get hysterical over exit polls.
Has anybody here ever been exit polled...I have never been exit polled in my entire life, and I live in a fairly large, diverse city?
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