Posted on 11/02/2004 8:21:04 AM PST by Michael Goldsberry
A decade after Republicans swept to control of Congress, they are fighting to hold a slim Senate majority in today's elections but are heavily favored to keep control of the House of Representatives.
With a narrow 51-48 Senate advantage on the line, Republicans looked to win up to five open Democratic seats in the South. Democrats saw opportunities for gains in five other states, from Illinois to Alaska.
But the race most closely watched is in sparsely populated South Dakota, where Republicans are trying to unseat Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle in his bid for a fourth term. His race with Republican John Thune, a former congressman, loomed as a dead heat.
"The race for control is a tossup," said Brad Woodhouse, spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. But, he said, "It is still a steeper climb for us to get the majority than it is for them to keep it."
There are 34 Senate seats up this year, but the focus is on nine closely contested races. Besides South Dakota, they include four open seats created by the retirement of Democratic incumbents in the South and four Republican seats where the GOP faced a struggle against strong Democratic challenges.
Democrats are confident of winning in Illinois, where a retiring Republican now holds the seat. Republicans expect to gain a Democratic seat in Georgia.
"I do think we'll hold on" to the majority, said Dan Allen, spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee. "We're cautiously optimistic."
Senate trends to watch for tonight:
* Republican opportunities. Retirements have opened up Democratic seats in South Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Louisiana. Polls suggested Republicans may have an edge in Georgia and the Carolinas, including the North Carolina seat being given up by Democratic vice presidential candidate John Edwards (news - web sites). Florida is a tossup, while in Louisiana, Republican Rep. David Vitter (news, bio, voting record) is trying to win outright today rather than face a Democrat in a runoff next month.
* Democratic targets. The retirements of incumbents in Colorado and Oklahoma offered rich opportunities for Democrats, while a pair of troubled Republican incumbents also face difficult battles. In Alaska, Sen. Lisa Murkowski (news, bio, voting record) faced charges of nepotism because she was appointed by her father, Frank, the state's governor. In Kentucky, Sen. Jim Bunning (news, bio, voting record) had led in polls until a series of gaffes led to questions about his ability to serve another six years.
Democrats hope to win enough House seats to make Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi the first female speaker of the House. But independent political analysts say Democrats have a steep mountain to climb to net the 12 seats they need to reverse Republicans' 227 to 205 advantage. No more than 40 of 435 House races are competitive. Wisconsin, Ohio and Michigan may be presidential battlegrounds, but not one of their 41 House seats is expected to change hands.
Redistricting has made Republican districts more Republican and Democratic districts more Democratic. Nearly 20 candidates who won primaries in "safe" districts are considered shoo-ins. Many incumbents are running unopposed or face only token opposition. And those who face serious challengers are fighting their campaigns with the kinds of heavy war chests that only incumbents usually can accrue.
With so few competitive seats, Democrats have "an unbelievable battle to get to the majority, and the odds are so very long," says Amy Walter, an analyst for the non-partisan Cook Political Report. But with presidential candidates at the top of the ticket, Walter says, "The 'X factor' out there is turnout."
If turnout is big, as new registrations and early voting hint it will be, that could push Democrats over the top in deadlocked districts, independent political analyst Stuart Rothenberg says. He doubts that will happen but doesn't rule it out. "Democrats hope there is this surge under the surface that no one can see" that will turn against President Bush (news - web sites) and his party to topple Republican incumbents, Rothenberg says.
Carl Forti, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, says, "I don't think it's even a question" that the GOP will maintain their majority."
Rep. Robert Matsui (news, bio, voting record) of California, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, says polls show a majority of voters feel the country is on the wrong track and will reflect that today. "When you know you're unhappy, then you want change, and then you vote against the party in power," he says.
Regardless of who controls the 109th Congress, there will be some changes. What to look for:
*Endangered Republicans. Several Republican incumbents are in trouble, including Christopher Shays, a moderate in heavily Democratic Connecticut; Max Burns, a freshman in a heavily Democratic Georgia district; and Phil Crane of Illinois, the House's longest-serving Republican after 18 terms.
* Teetering Texans. The controversial redistricting plan forced through by House Majority Leader Tom DeLay was designed to give Republicans seven previously safe Democratic seats. Among Democrats battling to stay in the House, only Chet Edwards looks likely to win. Those in the most trouble appear to be Reps. Charles Stenholm and Max Sandlin. The battle between Democrat Martin Frost and Republican Pete Sessions is close.
* Unexpected races. Oregon incumbent David Wu was sailing to re-election until reports surfaced this month about a 28-year-old sexual misconduct allegation. Now he faces a real challenge from Republican Goli Ameri. Virginia's 2nd District was safe until incumbent Ed Schrock resigned in August amid allegations he is gay. Republican Thelma Drake is fighting to hold the seat against a strong challenge from David Ashe, who served in Iraq (news - web sites) last year as a Marine.
*Family matters. Some familiar names are on the ballots. In Oklahoma, Democrat Dan Boren, 31, will likely become the third in his family to serve in Congress; father David was a senator and grandfather Lyle served in the House. Illinois Democrat Dan Lipinski, 38, will likely replace his father, retiring 11-term incumbent Bill Lipinski. Missouri's Russ Carnahan, 46, is a shoo-in to follow his mother, former senator Jean Carnahan, to Capitol Hill. Connie Mack, whose namesake father was a senator, will likely fill CIA (news - web sites) Director Porter Goss' seat in Florida.
*More women. A record 139 women, including 57 incumbents, are running for the House as major-party candidates, says Rutgers University's Center for American Women and Politics. Women are facing off against other women in 11 districts.
The Democrats have never had a chance to retake the House.
This election emans the GOP keeps the House for at least another decade. You're gonna see a bunch of the old bull Dems..like Rangel, retire after this term..the Dem caucus will get more wacko far left..BTW..Cynthia McKinney's BBBBBAAAAAAAACCCCKKKK!!
When you look at all the red counties vs the blue counties it seem inconceivable that the Dems could retake the House.
THUNE won last night with that stupid little lawsuit trick by Daschle.
I have angered two of the dem candidate supporters in Tom Delays district. I just pointed out the fact that the rats have 0% chance of winning the house back and the a freshman rat can't do as much for our district as a sitting house majority leader.
Growing up in a time when the Dems were practically unopposed in Congress, as most of us did, this is refreshing to meditate on.
People forget we just finally got control in 1994. Thank God for Reagan and Rush.
Uh, I think you left out someone named "Newt", who played a bit of a role in that too.
Yes, they are. In fact Barak Osama was sooooo confident he didn't even bother to campaign in IL (not smart). BUT ......
does this guy have the perfect name for politics or what?
Who can do it? AmeriCAN!
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