Posted on 11/02/2004 12:47:07 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
Watching the election results roll in this year should be different.
Still stinging from the media meltdown in calling the 2000 elections, news organizations are likely to be more cautious in projecting winners, making for a longer night.
Nevertheless, from the time the voting booths begin closing on the East Coast on Election Day, important clues will emerge as to how the contest between President Bush and Sen. John Kerry will end.
Here is a guide, in West Coast time, to what to look for as the candidates start adding up electoral votes to try to reach the magic 270 needed to win the White House:
4 p.m. -- The polls close in Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia. Together, they represent 75 electoral votes. But the state to watch is Michigan, with 17. Kerry cannot afford to lose Michigan, and if he does, it will be a sign of good things to come for Bush throughout the evening. Virginia could be worth watching, too. Although it is expected to go for Bush, a strong showing by Kerry in the Old Dominion would indicate major problems for the president.
4:30 p.m. -- The polls close in North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia, a total of 40 electoral votes. All could be interesting, but none more than the Buckeye State, with 20 electoral votes. Both candidates have campaigned vigorously in Ohio, a state many experts believe will decide the election.
It may be worth following the returns from North Carolina just to see whether Kerry's running mate, Sen. John Edwards, can carry his home state. And West Virginia, which surprised most analysts by supporting Bush four years ago, could spell trouble for the president if Kerry rallies there.
5 p.m. -- A chunk of 177 electoral votes will be decided when the polls close in 16 states and the District of Columbia, including the battleground states of Florida, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. Of the three, Florida will bear the most watching, just as it did four years ago when Bush carried it by a mere 537 votes. Bush and Kerry have spent time and money in the Sunshine State, and its 27 electoral votes are crucial to both camps' Electoral College calculations.
New Hampshire, normally a solid Republican state, voted for Bush in 2000, but Kerry believes this could be a pickup for him. Its four electoral votes could even be decisive. Pennsylvania, with 21 electoral votes, also is crucial to Kerry, just as it was to Democrat Al Gore in 2000, and, again, if Kerry falters here, it will be hard for him to make up the difference somewhere else. The Bush camp views another state in this group, New Jersey, as an enticing prize with its 15 electoral votes. And if Kerry stumbles and cannot hold the normally Democratic Garden State, it could spell the end of his White House bid.
5:30 p.m. -- The polls close in Arkansas, which, until the final days of the campaign, appeared to put its six electoral votes solidly on Bush's side. But the polls have tightened, and the Kerry camp dispatched Arkansas native Bill Clinton to the state for a final weekend of stumping for the Democratic nominee. This could be the place Kerry breaks Bush's hold on the Solid South.
6 p.m. -- The polls close in 11 states, with a total of 130 electoral votes. Four bear watching: Colorado, Minnesota, New Mexico and Wisconsin. Four years ago, the closest voting in the country occurred in New Mexico, with Gore winning the state by a mere 366 votes. The polls suggest a rerun this year in securing its five electoral votes.
Minnesota, with 10 electoral votes, and Wisconsin, also with 10, are two Democratic states Bush believes he can pick off from Kerry, but Kerry's final campaign appearance on Election Day was in Wisconsin, in an effort to spur same-day voter registration.
Kerry made a strong effort to move Colorado from the GOP column, but Bush responded.
7 p.m. -- The polls close in Arizona, Iowa, Montana, Nevada and Utah, representing 30 electoral votes. Iowa and Nevada are the most intriguing viewing. Iowa, with seven electoral votes, is another Democratic state Bush targeted, and Nevada, with five, is another Republican state Kerry targeted. The race in both states has been close.
8 p.m. -- Eighty electoral votes will be decided when the polls close in California, Idaho, North Dakota, Oregon and Washington. But only Oregon, with seven electoral votes, and Washington, with 11, offer any hint of drama. Both have been trending toward Kerry in recent weeks, however.
9 p.m. -- The polls close in Alaska and Hawaii, and usually on Election Day, the outcome is known long before these two states, with only seven electoral votes combined, vote.
But this year could be different for Hawaii. The Aloha State, with four electoral votes, hasn't voted Republican since 1984, but it appeared to be in play in the final days of this campaign.
Vice President Cheney appeared there to fly the GOP flag, and the Kerry camp responded with Democratic surrogates, including Gore.
the best site for minute-by-minute returns, exit polling, and
news throughout the day on November 2 :
http://evote.com/homepage/new_home.asp
Thanks for posting this!
This is also a good guide for watching the election returns. Here is the link:
http://www.opinionjournal.com/diary/?id=110005838
The most accurate thing in this article are the poll closing times. Take everything else with a major dose of salt. It's clearly written with a "Kerry is my candidate" perspective.
They want the drama to never end.
Thanks for the LINKS!
Bump!
yw
Thanks Howlin!
Another great resource is right here at FR and all over the blogosphere. This year will be unique in that the new media, blogs for that matter, will be doing extensive coverage of the elections.
Keeping
More than 113,000 people from 119 countries made their choice at www.globalvote2004.org, handing Kerry a crushing win with 77 percent of the vote, a spokesman for the website said on Monday.
Third party candidates, including independent Ralph Nader (news - web sites), took nearly 14 percent of the vote, while Bush garnered a mere nine percent.
The results, a non-official tally of the world's view of the closely-fought presidential race, were released a day before Americans go to the polls in the real vote.
Polls in the United States reveal a dead heat between Bush and Kerry, but surfers who had their say at Globalvote leaned strongly towards the challenger:
"Iraq (news - web sites) was one of the few countries where Bush actually won and the Middle East voted 37 percent for Bush compared to a world average of 9.1 percent," a spokesman for the website said.
"We're not trying to tell Americans how to vote, we're just giving them feedback from the rest of the world. The outcome of the real vote affects non-US citizens enormously in the post-9/11 age," he added.
You're right. Been watching the news all night (well, as much as I can stomach) and they are trying to turn this into a horserace. They have also been attacking the electoral college system, systematically distorting it. I suspect that is one of the excuses they will use for Kerry.
I have figured one thing out, all the news media polls are closer than the others. CBS and ABC are using that to make it look like a 1% difference, which of course is easily inside the MOE. Sounds like they want ratings. :)
If Pennsylvania goes for Bush, it will be party time on FR!!
Clicking the link before 3PM EST will just take you to the CSPAN front page.
The election has been their bread and butter for so long.
Ad revenue is a HUGE money maker for them.
Thanks for the LINK!
I'll be breathing a HUUUUGH sigh of relief if PA goes Bush!
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