Harris Poll Internal - 24% of LIKELY VOTERS have voted! BUSH AHEAD 50-44!!!!

Harris Interactive ^ | 11/1 | Harris Interactive (TELEPHONE survey)

[JingoJim]

"Who did you vote for?" Base: All likely voters(1) who have already voted (Approximately 24 percent of all "Likely Voters")

% George W. Bush 50 John Kerry 44 Ralph Nader 1 Michael Badnarik 1 Other * Not sure/Refused 4

Based on combined online and telephone survey data. (1) Likely Voters: Adults who are registered to vote and say they are "absolutely certain" to vote. Note: This base includes ONLY those likely voters who have already voted in this election.

[Semper Paratus]

That 2000 table is interesting. The Undecideds were more and they broke 3-1 for Gore. I expect the undecided break to be at least 50-50 the year.

[Constantine XIII]

Still...sounds like a reasonable answer. It is a secret ballot, after all. :)

[rotundusmaximus]

I am going to be spending the rest of the day praying for our POTUS to be POTUS for 4 more years!!

[jporcus]

Wouldn't a Bush landslide be sweet?

[Rebelbase]

This reads like a stats class problem:

24% of voters voted early, pulling 50-44 for the incumbent. Of the remaining people who have not yet voted, what percentage of them must vote for the challenger in order for him to reach 50% of the total vote?

[Mfkmmof4]

I do the Harris surveys on a regular basis. I suspect this is where the internals come from.

[hchutch]

Well, 4% refused to say.

Assume a 3-1 split to Kerry.

That gives Bush a 51-47 advantage.

[hchutch]

I'm assuming a 3-1 break of the "Refused" sample.

[Poohbah]

WTF are "undecided" voters doing voting early?

[MaryJaneNC]

You are right. It will be an early night.
It will not be close.

[Rebelbase]

Keep the pressure on!~

DU is beginning the meltdown:

"May God Damn George Walker Bush and all who vote for him"

[Rebelbase]

Another DU stuner:

"Attention atheists, please pray for a Kerry victory"

[Poohbah]

Crack. It does a brain ugly.

[hchutch]

50% went for Bush - 44% went for Kerry. 4% refused to say or were not sure. I'm assuming they refused to say who they voted for.

Taking the 3-1 break Gore got, I'm assuming the race is at 51-47 in favor of POTUS. Worst case, it's 50-48 for POTUS.

[LincolnLover]

Don't think I'm going out on a limb by saying most, if not all, of that 4 percent that refused to answer voted for BUSH, IMO.

[Happy2BMe]

You Can Run - But You Can't Hide!

[WKB]

This and As of 12:00 am Trade sports and Iowa elc. markets have bush +4 It's Over except for the Fat Lady (Mrs Edwards?)



Is she the one who is going to sing?

[paws_and_whiskers]

I participated in the Harris online poll a couple of days ago.

[OKSooner]

Go vote anyway.

[OKSooner]

Go vote.