Posted on 11/01/2004 7:55:35 PM PST by 1066AD
America is on the brink of an election, not another civil war By Niall Ferguson (Filed: 02/11/2004)
Is the United States irreparably divided? To read some commentators on the subject of today's election, you would think Americans are on the brink of a second civil war.
On one side, so the story goes, there is the Red Republican America of the rural heartland. On the other, there's the Blue Democratic America of the urban coasts. So bitter has this year's presidential campaign been, we are warned, that these two Americas are further apart than at any time since the Second World War.
The two Americas are brilliantly caricatured in Team America: World Police, a side-splitting spoof of the old puppet television series Thunderbirds. Republicans are personified by the trigger-happy anti-terrorist squad "Team America", who inadvertently destroy the Eiffel Tower as they attempt to "take down" the foes of freedom.
Democrats fare no better: they're epitomised by the bleeding-heart liberal luvvies of Hollywood's Film Actors Guild (FAG), who are duped into attending a bogus peace conference by the deranged North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il.
Tonight's nightmare scenario – the prelude to civil war between Team America and FAG – goes like this. First, the popular vote is divided 50:50. Then the difference between the candidates in one or more of the key swing states is small enough to be challenged. Neither Bush nor Kerry concedes; instead they unleash teams of attack-dog lawyers. Eventually, the Supreme Court rules one way or the other. But by that time the political atmosphere has grown so poisonous that its ruling is simply not accepted by the losing side.
Now, it's true that a tie is not inconceivable. Since March, when John Kerry became the Democratic Party's candidate, he and President Bush have been neck and neck in the polls. It's also true that some parts of the United States are staunchly Republican and others staunchly Democrat.
Bush can count on the belt of states running down the country's geographical middle from Montana to Texas and most of the South. Kerry doesn't need to worry much about the West and much of the North-East.
Yet the conventional wisdom that America is being rent asunder by this election strikes me as fundamentally wrong. Having spent much of the past few months on the road, giving lectures in states as diverse as Massachusetts, New York, California, Michigan and Minnesota, I am happy to report that civil war is not imminent. Indeed, I would go so far as to say that the notorious political polarisation in the United States is something of an illusion. What we are seeing here is a sign of democratic vitality in a land that remains fundamentally whole.
To a "non-resident alien" like me – which means I get the taxation without the representation – the most striking thing about this vast country remains its astonishing homogeneity. Where else in the world could you fly 2,500 miles and find so little difference at the other end? Same Starbucks, same Wal-Mart, same SUVs, same highways, same people.
Yes, people are worked up about this election and yes, there are some real differences between the candidates. But what Americans have in common still greatly outweighs these differences.
For a start, they clearly share a belief in democracy; it's not just the President who gets chosen tomorrow, but a vast number of other officials – hence the signs you see everywhere that read "Joe Schmoe for School Board". Americans also share a real ambivalence about American power overseas: despite appearances, this is not a contest between imperialists and anti-imperialists, since only a tiny minority of Republicans want anything other than a short-term American military presence in Iraq.
And Democrats and Republicans alike don't want to be told anything too scary about their country's finances; both candidates have played down the looming deficits of the Medicare and social security systems. Americans are not all Christian fundamentalists, but most of them are Christians (which can no longer be said of secularised Europe). Americans were not all in favour of the war in Iraq, but they remain a remarkably patriotic people, passionately convinced that their system of government is the best in the world.
Even those red and blue electoral maps are deceptive. You can meet Republicans in Manhattan and Democrats in Texas. And there would not be swing states if there were not near-equal numbers of Republicans and Democrats in up to 15 out of 50 states. Remember, too, that only 11 states have been held consistently by just one of the two parties in all of the last eight presidential elections.
Another key point is the extent to which American political divisions are not straightforward ethnic or religious divisions – the sort that usually lead to bitter conflicts in other countries. It's well known that Evangelical Christians are more likely to back Bush. But Catholics are very evenly divided. And within the Evangelical community, men are much more strongly pro-Bush than women.
Likewise, everyone knows that black Americans are solidly Democrat. Four out of five are expected to vote for Kerry. But Hispanics are much more evenly divided.
Perhaps the most important point about today's supposed polarisation, however, is that no one ever seems to come to blows. Compared with the 1980s in Britain, this isn't polarisation at all. Maybe it's just Americans attaining a normal level of political mobilisation after decades of low turnout.
The best measure of this is the extraordinary health of American political satire. Team America was produced by the inventors of the wonderfully scurrilous cartoon series South Park, which is The Simpsons for grown-ups. The other night on Jon Stewart's hugely popular Daily Show (a spoof news show) there was a Fiasco Preview, in which the deadpan Stewart told viewers: "Florida has been warned by God four times during this hurricane season not to let it happen again." A nation that finds this kind of thing funny is not about to descend into internecine warfare.
So if they are faced on Wednesday with another dead heat, I predict that Americans will unite... in mortification at the prospect of another election decided by lawsuits. Whoever comes out on top, this is not the prelude to a civil war between Team America and the Film Actors Guild. Deep down inside, nearly all Americans are united in wanting ABT – Anything But a Tie.
Niall Ferguson is Professor of History at Harvard University
I dont know....a civil war actually seems kind of appealing right now, when I look at the other half of the country.
Some days I think about that. Well most days. It boggles my mind that Kerry even has almost half of the white Catholic vote. Kerry who voted for PBA six times. It's unreal! I am not much of great Christian but for crying out loud. Partial Birth Abortion!??? How can they just ignore that?? And yet we supposedly "share the same values" with these people? I am sick of hearing that phrase. It is a lie. And whoever uses it is lying to himself and glossing over seething problems because they want to be seen as reasonable or temperate.
This country is more divided than at any time since 1971 - John Kerry stump speech
Yeah, and it was you THEN, too.
The reason we are divided if we really are is the media has done all they could to make that happen.
You are right. Sometimes, extreme measures are necessary to protect what is right and moral. I cannot abide by the likes of Moore and Streisand. I simply cannot and will not accept socialism, secularism and atheism. I WILL NOT!!!
Thunderbirds was cool... but now I date myself.
If conservatives would move out of the blue states they could make them impotent. I think that is slowly happening anyway.
Everything's in reruns anyway.
I remember some sort of a show, Stingray or something, that reminds me of the puppets I've seen in ads for this Team America and there were commercials too in the last few years with puppet-like characters in it as well. Everything is in reruns any way!
See the movie. It has lots of profanity and almost got a NC-17 for puppet sex, however it is the funniest movie I have seen in the last 4 years.
Perhaps a physical civil war wouldn't occur because Democrats know our current commander in chief is popular with at least 3 out of 4 of the military.
That is a precise way of stating the current state of affairs we face today. The left is obsessed with absolute power. Just elections mean nothing to them. They want to win at all costs. Our Republic is in grave danger. Al Gore took the first evil step in 2000 of lawyering our way to tyranny. The left does everything in its power to smear, to denegrate, and to humilate those of us who cherish Liberty and Individual rights. In the coming years, once they have the power they crave, the left will seek to use violence against us. They are evil to their core.
I am Catholic and there are people at our church that are voting for Kerry. It is mind-boggling. They believe the lies of the media. They belive Kerry's lies about the war and health care. We tried to point out Kerry's lack of opposition to late term abortions and they have nothing to say. I can't see how anyone can be a Christian and support Kerry. I pray every day for understanding and it is difficult. The left are pushing us to the breaking point with their lies and utter corruptness.
There are many more that agree with you. Recently in conversations with friends, many who are quite reasonable and calm in most situations bring up the civil war aspect. There is no doubt there is great polarization in this land. I fear there cannot be any reconciliation without great conflict. The left seeks to IMPOSE their rule over us. I WILL NOT LET THAT HAPPEN MY FAMILY.
"Perhaps a physical civil war wouldn't occur because Democrats know our current commander in chief is popular with at least 3 out of 4 of the military."
And the majority of the Republican base firmly supports the 2nd for a reason.
Fair warning, the number of times they use the "F" word is easily up in the hundreds. That said, I laughed my head off. I talked to a couple of dyed-in-the wool liberals and they also liked it. It's just good satire.
Nah....If Liberals move to Canada we would have a Left Free America!!!
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