Although I just checked RCP and they have bush at 227 projected which means if he wins Florida and Ohio he has enough.
So Bush does not need NH or NM to win if he takes Fl, OH?
Is the electoral college configured differently in 2000? Some states have more value? I'm missing something.
Bush has 7 more EVs than in 2000 with the same states, so I guess he can lose NH which he probably will. But he will pick up NM to make up for it. Either way I think Zogby is going for broke and risking his reputation on a Kerry win. Its one thing to be proven wrong about an electoral outcome. Its another when your own poll shows how wrong you are while you are proven wrong. The solution the is to spin the polls so that both Zogby and his poll are either both right or both wrong!