Ohio Marriage Amendment "worth 50,000 to 100,000 votes" for President Bush

The Wall Street Journal (registration required) ^ | 11/01/04 | As quoted by Fred Barnes

[TonyInOhio]

This is an excerpt from Fred Barnes' article today. The key passage quotes Prof. Green of the University of Akron, a man who knows his stuff:

Democratic strategists claim the gay marriage issue won't boost Mr. Bush. Kerry pollster Mark Mellman said in the three toss-up states where it's on the ballot -- Ohio, Michigan, Oregon -- Mr. Kerry is winning. Belying Mr. Mellman, Democrats fought vigorously to keep the issue off the ballot out of fear it would indeed aid Mr. Bush. In socially conservative Midwest states like Iowa, Wisconsin and Minnesota, where it's not being voted on, the issue may appeal to conservative Catholics and Lutherans. "Abortion and the gay marriage issue will play well there," said GOP consultant Frank Luntz.

But Ohio is the key. It's a state Mr. Kerry must win. Republican leaders -- Gov. Bob Taft and Sens. George Voinovich and Mike Dewine -- opposed the referendum, but grass roots social conservatives overwhelmed them to get it on the ballot. The most recent poll showed the referendum passing by a 3-to-2 margin. Prof. John Green of the University of Akron, an expert on the voting habits of religious conservatives, said it has strong support "among Democratic-leaning groups, black Protestants and Catholics. It will generate additional votes for Bush." How many? Probably 50,000 to 100,000, Mr. Green said, perhaps the balance in a close election.

[smith288]

And them durned Amish...no pundit is talking about the Amish who cant be polled.

[RockinRight]

I had Dr. Green for Poli Sci at U of Akron. He's a RINO moderate, but he usually calls it correctly on stuff like this.

[Josh in PA]

Polls say it'll pass 3-2? Bollocks.

Every gay marriage ban ammendment has passed far higher than the polls have indicated.

It'll pass 75-25, not 60-40.

[dawn53]

He seems to imply that conservative blacks and Catholics won't be voting for Bush...or did I read that wrong?

[xzins]

More than that. I know about 10 churches with that many people.

Every Christian I spoke to a month ago who said they were leaning kerry or undecided have nearly ALL decided on the basis of kerry's support for gay marriage and for partial birth abortion.

[TonyInOhio]

I note that a surge of conservative voters would not be reflected in public polling.

[rface]

I saw a poll this AM showing the Amendment passing 59% - I think and hope that this number is going to prove too low. I wonder if the surprise turn-out group will prove to be the Pro-Traditional Marriage voters .... maybe a lot of 1st time voters.

I pray I am right, and not just hopefully irrationalistic

[unspun]

And them durned Amish...no pundit is talking about the Amish who cant be polled.

And the cell phone carrying "Kerry Youth" will be counteracted by...
1. union members who give Democrat poll answers
2. young people who think Kerry is a really cheesy poseur with his immitation of The Great White Hunter in the wilds of Ohio

[TonyInOhio]

Ohio Ping

[happygrl]

Every Christian I spoke to a month ago who said they were leaning kerry or undecided have nearly ALL decided on the basis of kerry's support for gay marriage and for partial birth abortion.

I hope you're saying that they've all decided FOR President Bush !!!!!!!!

There are some issues that determine the course of a civilization, which is more important and vital than a business cycle with its short term impacts.

God is watching, as He always is, to see if our tent is pitched toward Soddom and Gommorah, or if there are enough righteous to stand against evil.

[Dog Gone]

 

	Electoral Votes	UTC	Eastern	Central	Mountain	Pacific	Alaska	Hawaii
0 total (0 new) electoral votes by 2300 UTC - 2 November 2004
Indiana (EST) *A		2300 UTC	6:00p EST	5:00p CST	4:00p MST	3:00p PST	2:00p AKST 1:00p ALST	1:00p HIST
Kentucky (EST) *A
58 total (58 new) electoral votes by 0000 UTC - 3 November 2004
Florida (EST) *A		0000 UTC	7:00p EST	6:00p CST	5:00p MST	4:00p PST	3:00p AKST 2:00p ALST	2:00p HIST
Georgia	15
New Hampshire (EST) *A
South Carolina	8
Vermont	3
Virginia	13
Indiana (CST) *A	11	0000 UTC	7:00p EST	6:00p CST	5:00p MST	4:00p PST	3:00p AKST 2:00p ALST	2:00p HIST
Kentucky (CST) *A	8
83 total (25 new) electoral votes by 0030 UTC - 3 November 2004
North Carolina (EST) *A		0030 UTC	7:30p EST	6:30p CST	5:30p MST	4:30p PST	3:30p AKST 2:30p ALST	2:30p HIST
Ohio	20
West Virginia	5
260 total (177 new) electoral votes by 0100 UTC - 3 November 2004
Connecticut	7	0100 UTC	8:00p EST	7:00p CST	6:00p MST	5:00p PST	4:00p AKST 3:00p ALST	3:00p HIST
Delaware	3
District of Columbia	3
Maine	4
Maryland	10
Massachusetts	12
Michigan (EST) *A
New Hampshire (EST) *A	4
New Jersey	15
Pennsylvania	21
Tennessee (EST) *S
Alabama	9	0100 UTC	8:00p EST	7:00p CST	6:00p MST	5:00p PST	4:00p AKST 3:00p ALST	3:00p HIST
Florida (CST) *A	27
Illinois	21
Kansas (CST) *S
Mississippi	6
Missouri	11
Oklahoma	7
Tennessee (CST) *S	11
Texas (CST) *A
Kansas (MST) *S	6	0100 UTC	8:00p EST	7:00p CST	6:00p MST	5:00p PST	4:00p AKST 3:00p ALST	3:00p HIST
281 total (21 new) electoral votes by 0130 UTC - 3 November 2004 This is the earliest at which a candidate could be projected to have been elected the next President of the United States, assuming a candidate has been projected to win the necessary 270 electoral votes to be elected.
North Carolina (EST) *A	15	0130 UTC	8:30p EST	7:30p CST	6:30p MST	5:30p PST	4:30p AKST 3:30p ALST	3:30p HIST
Arkansas	6	0130 UTC	8:30p EST	7:30p CST	6:30p MST	5:30p PST	4:30p AKST 3:30p ALST	3:30p HIST
431 total (150 new) electoral votes by 0200 UTC - 3 November 2004
New York	31	0200 UTC	9:00p EST	8:00p CST	7:00p MST	6:00p PST	5:00p AKST 4:00p ALST	4:00p HIST
Rhode Island	4
Louisiana	9	0200 UTC	9:00p EST	8:00p CST	7:00p MST	6:00p PST	5:00p AKST 4:00p ALST	4:00p HIST
Michigan (CST) *A	17
Minnesota	10
Nebraska (CST) *S
South Dakota (CST) *S
Wisconsin	10
Arizona	10	0200 UTC	9:00p EST	8:00p CST	7:00p MST	6:00p PST	5:00p AKST 4:00p ALST	4:00p HIST
Colorado	9
Nebraska (MST) *S	5
New Mexico	5
South Dakota (MST) *S	3
Texas (MST) *A	34
Wyoming	3
458 total (27 new) electoral votes by 0300 UTC - 3 November 2004
Iowa	7	0300 UTC	10:00p EST	9:00p CST	8:00p MST	7:00p PST	6:00p AKST 5:00p ALST	5:00p HIST
North Dakota (CST) *A
Idaho (MST) *A		0300 UTC	10:00p EST	9:00p CST	8:00p MST	7:00p PST	6:00p AKST 5:00p ALST	5:00p HIST
Montana	3
Oregon (MST) *A	7
Utah	5
Nevada	5	0300 UTC	10:00p EST	9:00p CST	8:00p MST	7:00p PST	6:00p AKST 5:00p ALST	5:00p HIST
535 total (77 new) electoral votes by 0400 UTC - 3 November 2004
North Dakota (MST) *A	3	0400 UTC	11:00p EST	10:00p CST	9:00p MST	8:00p PST	7:00p AKST 6:00p ALST	6:00p HIST
California	55	0400 UTC	11:00p EST	10:00p CST	9:00p MST	8:00p PST	7:00p AKST 6:00p ALST	6:00p HIST
Idaho (PST) *A	4
Oregon (PST) *A
Washington	11
Hawaii	4	0400 UTC	11:00p EST	10:00p CST	9:00p MST	8:00p PST	7:00p AKST 6:00p ALST	6:00p HIST
535 total (0 new) electoral votes by 0500 UTC - 3 November 2004
Alaska (AKST) *A		0500 UTC	12:00a EST	11:00p CST	10:00p MST	9:00p PST	8:00p AKST 7:00p ALST	7:00p HIST
538 total (3 new) electoral votes by 0600 UTC - 3 November 2004
Alaska (ALST) *A	3	0600 UTC	1:00a EST	12:00a CST	11:00p MST	10:00p PST	9:00p AKST 8:00p ALST	8:00p HIST

 

---

[xzins]

Yes, against kerry and for the President.

Sometimes when I write things, I guess I assume too much.

:>)

[Sgt_Schultze]

It's a shame that many in the US want to outsource the presidency to a North Vietnam sympathizer.

[moose2004]

The newest Ohio Poll out today shows support for the anti gay marriage referendum at 59.2% and those opposed at 40.8%. I believe in the end that the referendum will receive between 65% - 70% support thanks to a massive turn out by Christian conservatives, Catholics, and larger than expected numbers of socially conservative black voters.

[bella1]

Are the Amish going to vote? Please inform.

[tlb]

Just moments ago in a later thread ( working backwards ) I posted the same point, that this issue was a sleeper ignored by the press and undetected by the pollsters that will win states, and the election, for Bush he would otherwise have lost.

I genuinely think it's a shame though that it takes this sort of issue to seal Kerry's fate.

[drc43]

"Sometimes when I write things, I guess I assume too much. "

Well here in Grand Rapids I have seen several SUV's with the Christian symbol attached, and sporting Kerry Stickers.

So.... Christian does not necessarily mean......

[xzins]

First Church of the WhasHappeninNow

[drc43]

I am also baffled by the large SUV's with the Kerry Stickers.

Just ... oh well.....