Final Batch of Strategic Vision Polls (OH+2, FL+4, PA-1, NJ tie, GA+14)

11/01/04 | Strategic Vision

[mwl1]

I don't trust Zogby, and take the FOX polls with a grain of salt -- they always underpoll the President.

[Raycpa]

Okay, I'm off the ledge now.

I'm inching my way right behind you, trying not to look down.

[southernerwithanattitude]

No way Bush gets less than 65% in Georgia! {I like to think we are smarter down here}

[TommyDale]

I got tired of the Fox News "Constant Kerry Coverage" and switched over to MSNBC. I know, but it was the only thing on.

They interviewed 4 different people who had been undecided previously. The lady from New Jersey said she had decided to go with Bush, because of her concern for her family's security. Another lady from Michigan said she has decided to go with Bush because of Kerry's attempt to use the "missing weapons" issue. (Her brother is a soldier in Iraq.) A young black man (didn't catch where he was from) said he had decided to go with Bush because of "moral" reasons. The fourth person was a white male, who has decided to vote Libertarian.

Bush 3, Libertarian 1, Kerry 0. Good segment. It appeared that the MSNBC anchor didn't know quite how to react. She was in disbelief or denial.

[rightinthemiddle]

Whew...I was worried about Georgia.

[socialismisinsidious]

just what I needed!

[AzSteven]

Awfully worried about GA... ;-p

[southernerwithanattitude]

Don't worry about Georgia, we have one of those gay marriage things on the ballet here also so BIG Conservative turn out!

[ok42day]

This sounds GREAT, but on the Fox website it shows Kerry has pulled ahead of Dubya. What's up with that? I live in Ohio and have been telling all to get out and vote for our man. I was able to swing 3 over to him and got 2 elderly folks to do so via absentee ballots.

[KavMan]

ahhhh i can't take this anymore! i can't take this anymore!

i'm going to bed early tomorrow, when i wake up and log onto fr this place better be celebrating like crazy

[FR_addict]

"I was able to swing 3 over to him and got 2 elderly folks to do so via absentee ballots."

You did good!

[Alberta's Child]

That should come as no surprise. While New Jersey has a well-earned reputation as a corrupt, Marxist state, it also has a voter registration profile that is (I believe) more strongly "independent" or "non-affiliated" than almost any other state.

[hchutch]

Tracks with Geraghty's retraction of his Ohio scare...

Plus there in good news from Iowa.
http://www.nationalreview.com/battleground/battleground.asp

---

IOWA: ODDS [David Hogberg 11/01 11:38 AM]

I had a conversation with my former boss in Iowa the other day, Don Racheter, a professor of political science at Central College. A big Bush supporter, he seemed quite upbeat. He jokingly told me that he had to tell his son—who is sometimes a bit remiss—“Put you absentee ballot in your hand right now, before you leave!”

A veteran of many campaigns, he has never seen this type of Republican activity. “There are a lot more bodies on the ground,” he said, “a lot more effort.” He was particularly impressed by the amount of paid staff the GOP has in Iowa this time around. “They’ve hired a lot of young people to do phone-bank drives and such. These are the kids who are willing to work 16-hour days. And since they are paid, they are much more reliable than volunteers.”

Last Monday he volunteered to make phone calls for the Bush Campaign. Of the Republicans he called, he estimated that 25% had already voted for Bush via absentee ballots. Something else that is unprecedented.

He also reminded me that there may be an inherent bias in all polls that favors the Democrats. “The Democrats often register a lot of new people who then do not show up to vote. The GOP turnout is generally a lot steadier.” The problem is that people who are newly registered may not tell the truth to the pollster. “They don’t want to look bad to the pollster, so they tell pollsters that they have voted in previous elections and that they will vote in this one.”

The last bit of good news he conveyed was how the students at Central College voted in the mock election. It wasn’t even close: Bush 60%, Kerry 40%.

In summary, he thinks Bush will carry Iowa, but is a bit worried about lawsuits. Other than that, one of the most positive conversations I’ve had this election season.

------

[gop_gene]

Looks good, but all these conflicting batch of polls are giving me a headache. Tomorrow can't come soon enough, whatever happens. I'm sick of living in "limbo."

[numberonepal]

GA +14? Well I guess I'll just be there to vote for Isakson and work that popular vote for the Prez. You couldn't drag me away from those polls.

[1Old Pro]

Still Looks like Florida and Ohio are key.

[agrace]

15% undecided in Jersey?

Sure, makes complete sense. NJ went to Gore by 16 points in 2000. So it seems to me that many of these are "almost" 9/11 Democrats that are really struggling with party loyalty vs feeling safe.

[numberonepal]

I went through 5 packs of cigarettes this week-end, ... I hate to see what I go through tomorrow night

Better get a carton, it's cheaper.

[gop_gene]

I went through 5 packs of cigarettes this week-end, that's well over a normal weeks worth, and I hate to see what I go through tomorrow night, arghhhhhhhhhhhhhh.

Same here, tho' I smoke much less--I've gone from smoking a half-pack a day habit to an entire one. Good think I'm not a drinker 'cause I'd be a full-blown stumbling-down alcoholic by now.

[Otta B Sleepin]

I promised myself I wasn't going to look at any more polls, but couldn't resist looking at this one. I'm glad I did. It's the first time this particular poll has had Bush ahead of Kerry in Minnesota: 49-48 in a two-way race, 49-47 with Nader on the ballot.

I'll say it again: in a hypothetical fair-and-square election (no dead, double, or illegal voters), there's no doubt in my mind that MN would be in the Bush column. We're dealing with the real world, though, so my game plan is GOTV and keep praying!