Posted on 10/31/2004 10:56:02 PM PST by RHOACO
Mortality before and after the 2003 invasion of Iraq: cluster sample survey
Les Roberts, Riyadh Lafta, Richard Garfield, Jamal Khudhairi, Gilbert Burnham
Summary
Background In March, 2003, military forces, mainly from the USA and the UK, invaded Iraq. We did a survey to compare mortality during the period of 14·6 months before the invasion with the 17·8 months after it.
Methods A cluster sample survey was undertaken throughout Iraq during September, 2004. 33 clusters of 30 households each were interviewed about household composition, births, and deaths since January, 2002. In those households reporting deaths, the date, cause, and circumstances of violent deaths were recorded. We assessed the relative risk of death associated with the 2003 invasion and occupation by comparing mortality in the 17·8 months after the invasion with the 14·6-month period preceding it.
Findings The risk of death was estimated to be 2·5-fold (95% CI 1·6-4·2) higher after the invasion when compared with the preinvasion period. Two-thirds of all violent deaths were reported in one cluster in the city of Falluja. If we exclude the Falluja data, the risk of death is 1·5-fold (1·1-2·3) higher after the invasion. We estimate that 98000 more deaths than expected (8000-194000) happened after the invasion outside of Falluja and far more if the outlier Falluja cluster is included. The major causes of death before the invasion were myocardial infarction, cerebrovascular accidents, and other chronic disorders whereas after the invasion violence was the primary cause of death. Violent deaths were widespread, reported in 15 of 33 clusters, and were mainly attributed to coalition forces. Most individuals reportedly killed by coalition forces were women and children. The risk of death from violence in the period after the invasion was 58 times higher (95% CI 8·1-419) than in the period before the war.
Interpretation Making conservative assumptions, we think that about 100000 excess deaths, or more have happened since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Violence accounted for most of the excess deaths and air strikes from coalition forces accounted for most violent deaths. We have shown that collection of public-health information is possible even during periods of extreme violence. Our results need further verification and should lead to changes to reduce non-combatant deaths from air strikes.
Already debunked.
Wow how can they stretch it that far?????
Check out the LAST sentence
Oh Ok
I did search on FR and did not see.....Thanx
"(8000-194000)"
That's the important part of the "study" right there. They have 95% confidence that the number of "extra deaths" is somewhere between 8,000 and 194,000. What an absurd range. Renders the entire survey meaningless. As an article on Slate pointed out, it would be like an election poll showing Bush with "somewhere between 4% and 96%" of the vote. Would anyone think that was anything but a profoundly flawed poll?
Have 2000 people a day died because of "Bush's War"? If so, why is the death rate so utterly underreported?
This story is pure, unadultered Buncombe!!!!
Something seriously wrong with the methodology here.
No consideration whatsoever was made for the "Odai factor".
People in Iraq were not merely dying of myocardial infarcations, cerebrovascular accidents, and other chronic disorders. A LOT were dying of the effects of being fed through wood chippers, being fed to the lions, the effects of repeated clubbing about the head and resulting exsanguination, and a simple bullet through the back of the neck. Except for an occasional decapitation, most of this sort of death has decreased precipitously. A large proportion, if not most, of the deaths of women and children now occurring in Iraq are the result of mortar and rocket attacks by insurgents who refuse to surrender, and have what is sometimes an absurdly poor sense of aim.
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