Posted on 10/31/2004 7:12:30 PM PST by Josh in PA
His only loss from 2000 is New Hampshire.
He picks up New Mexico, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Hawaii, as well as a 1 EV in Maine.
Close battleground states predictions:
Florida, Bush wins by 4.5%
Hawaii, Bush wins by 0.7%
Iowa, Bush wins by 2.0%
Maine, Kerry wins by 3.7%, however Bush wins 1 EV from the 2nd Congressional District.
Michigan, Kerry wins by 1.1%
Minnesota, Bush wins by 0.7%
Nevada, Bush wins by 4.7%
New Hampshire, Kerry wins by 0.9%
New Mexico, Bush wins by 3.9%
Ohio, Bush wins by 2.8%
Oregon, Kerry wins by 3.2%
Pennsylvania, Kerry wins by 0.8%
Wisconsin, Bush wins by 2.3% --
Other notables:
New Jersey: Kerry wins by 4.9%
Nationally: Bush wins, 50.48% to 47.64%
Projected turnout: Around 120 million.
The "Great turnout helps Democrats" myth will be debunked this year as the GOP steps up there GOTV campaign and Bush earns 10 million more voters on top of 2000 totals.
Okay, who does "CAMEC"? Is this your own computer projection?
Well that's good news but does this thing have a track record?
wowowow
great news!!
SOUNDS GOOD TO ME
Who is CAMEC?
Bump
This is interesting. Could you explain what this is? I've never heard of it. Any previous projections to compare to show accuracy?
This projection looks pretty good to me. I have the popular vote almost identical, although I am giving Bush 296 EC.
Today we were hit by a herd of polls. I don't care what they say. Turnout, turnout. GET YOUR SOULS TO THE POLLS!
Who is CAMEC? How credible? (Excuse the ignorance)
Don't know what CAMEC is, but it makes more sense than Zogby.
Do you have a source for all of this data and these projections. I'd like to believe it, I really would...
But I don't know about Minnesota. Today, I'm not so sure even about Wisconsin. Pres. Bush can win without them, but I'd like to see why your model puts them in the WIN category.
Sorry, this is not news. It is speculation. I hope it ends up being correct. I ask a question. Why have we never seen the question "Do you think Bush and the Republicans will steal the election?
Search CAMEC on FR for older projections from earlier this year and for more information.
CAMEC is a computer program I've written that combines some 30+ variables, from polls, registration, previous election results, various economic indicators(misery, gdp, few others), a few other variables as well.
That looks great! Is there a history to compare the accuracy to?
Bump to praise or jeer later.
I did a Google and he's either an African Mining outfit or a Chinese aerospace firm
CARAVAN and MARINE EQUIPMENT COMPANY
http://www.camec.com.au/
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