Survey USA Polls (MI K+3, IA tied, KY Bunning up big, Co +6)

For weekend, left-leaning polls these are not bad. Like the Senate - but Iowa is disconcerting... Dems apparently are way up in early voting in that state...

1 posted on 10/31/2004 6:09:01 PM PST by Gustafm1000

Don't be concerned about Iowa too much...Democrats hype a lot, and the Des Moines Register isn't exactly moderate...

2 posted on 10/31/2004 6:14:05 PM PST by republicanwizard

First of all, I like SUSA a lot. Still, I think Bush will carry Colorado by more than 6 points. Four years ago, Bush carried the state by 8 points. Maybe it's the weekend effect. As a consequence of thinking Bush will do a bit better than indicated, I think Pete Coors has a very good chance of winning even though SUSA shows him behind by 2 points in this poll.

3 posted on 10/31/2004 6:16:51 PM PST by Redmen4ever

Like the Senate - but Iowa is disconcerting... Dems apparently are way up in early voting in that state...

Go to the Kerry Spot on "http://nationalreview.com"; he has a great explanation of Iowa...Kerry is up by something like 14 votes, if you know the actual numbers. Sorry about the link, I can never remember how to make it an actual link.

4 posted on 10/31/2004 6:18:37 PM PST by pharmamom (They can't riot if they're stuned in disbelief.)

Coburn results are encouraging... Us winning that makes it awfully difficult for the Dems to win the Senate... I'm thinking along the lines of 54 GOP Senators next Congress (if you count Specter, McCain, Chafee)

5 posted on 10/31/2004 6:18:44 PM PST by Gustafm1000

It's better to be up 2-3 than down 2-3. But everyone should take all state polls with a HUGE GRAIN OF SALT. There is a margin of error. And a well-kept secret that about 5% of all polls are OUTSIDE THE MARGIN OF ERROR! After all, it is possible to call 400 people and get all from one party (tho highly unlikely...)

6 posted on 10/31/2004 6:19:39 PM PST by guitarist (commonsense)

For weekend, left-leaning polls these are not bad. Like the Senate - but Iowa is disconcerting... Dems apparently are way up in early voting in that state...

Great analysis of this on National Review on Line.

They are up by 24 votes in Iowa based on ONE survey of all ready voted.

7 posted on 10/31/2004 6:25:14 PM PST by MNJohnnie (Vote Bush 2004-We cannot survive a 9-10 President in a 9-11 World)

They are up by 24 votes in Iowa based on ONE survey of all ready voted.

A 24 vote lead for the Dems? How many people live in Iowa?

8 posted on 10/31/2004 6:29:02 PM PST by Jorge

9 posted on 10/31/2004 6:29:12 PM PST by MEG33 (John Kerry has been AWOL on issues of national security for two decades)

SUSA is Left-leaning and you forgot to mention "Robotic" and the company is owned by "Journalists"!

10 posted on 10/31/2004 6:30:50 PM PST by ConservativeGreek

It's the second article after the one on the Redskins

http://www.nationalreview.com/kerry/kerryspot.asp

11 posted on 10/31/2004 6:30:57 PM PST by MNJohnnie (Vote Bush 2004-We cannot survive a 9-10 President in a 9-11 World)

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12 posted on 10/31/2004 6:31:56 PM PST by 68-69TonkinGulfYachtClub (Nov 2 : Remember the 58,000 + Names on the Wall)

They are up by 24 votes in Iowa based on ONE survey of all ready voted.

Everyone keeps pointing out the National Review analysis. I had seen that. And it is persuasive. But if you look at the Iowa writeup on Survey USA they say Kerry is up among the 30% of Iowa voters who have already voted by a similar number to the 11% we saw yesterday. However, this group is disporportionately Democrat - meaning they have all already voted and the GOPers haven't yet... Having said that, I'd rather have the votes in the bank like they do...

13 posted on 10/31/2004 6:32:18 PM PST by Gustafm1000

14 posted on 10/31/2004 6:39:35 PM PST by Jorge

15 posted on 10/31/2004 6:40:28 PM PST by 4.1O dana super trac pak (Stop the open borders death cult)

Uggh.

People are getting horribly confused by POLLS of people ASKING them if they've already voted and thinking they're ACTUAL VOTE COUNTS.

Everything your hearing about early voters is NOT VOTE COUNTS. It's POLLING of people and asking them if they've already voted.

16 posted on 10/31/2004 6:41:37 PM PST by Strategerist

To: ConservativeGreek

Please do not insult me like that. I am the director of election polling for SurveyUSA, and our polls are NOT left-leaning. Our track record shows no bias toward Dems or Repubs, but you can always find a few states where we are more to the Dem side than other pollsters, and a few where we are more Republican (we are polling 30 states this year).

Our clients are 53 local TV news stations around the USA, but we provide them with unbiased research. I write all the election polls personally myself. (And if you think I personally have a left-wing bias, look back at all my FR posts over the last 6 years.)

It's true that we use the recorded voice of TV news anchors, who give the exact same poll to everyone in a professional way, rather than live $8 an hour headset operators, but I don't see that as a weakness. Our track record proves that our polls are among the most accurate.

17 posted on 10/31/2004 6:42:48 PM PST by VeritatisSplendor

Everyone keeps pointing out the National Review analysis. I had seen that. And it is persuasive. But if you look at the Iowa writeup on Survey USA they say Kerry is up among the 30% of Iowa voters who have already voted by a similar number to the 11% we saw yesterday. However, this group is disporportionately Democrat - meaning they have all already voted and the GOPers haven't yet... Having said that, I'd rather have the votes in the bank like they do...

Source for this?

18 posted on 10/31/2004 6:47:59 PM PST by MNJohnnie (Vote Bush 2004-We cannot survive a 9-10 President in a 9-11 World)

Wow.....that is a good analysis. Makes me feel a lot better, particulary when Dems tend to lead in early voting in IA if you look at the 2000 results they posted.

19 posted on 10/31/2004 6:54:00 PM PST by rwfromkansas (BYPASS FORCED WEB REGISTRATION! **** http://www.bugmenot.com ****)

To: VeritatisSplendor

"Our track record proves that our polls are among the most accurate."

Kind of curious if you have any independent verification for this claim? I cannot find Survey USA listed in the Harris recap of Historical Polling accuracy. As far as I have been able to discover we have only your word for the accuracy of your polls. Another question, How did you weight your samples? How did you determine which weight to use? Aren't you a little concered that all the polling models you use to make your assumptions are pre-9/11?

20 posted on 10/31/2004 6:55:27 PM PST by MNJohnnie (Vote Bush 2004-We cannot survive a 9-10 President in a 9-11 World)

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