Posted on 10/31/2004 2:42:41 PM PST by BohDaThone
A litle analysis that may allay some of the panic over "floods of new registrations." Michigan just posted the final county registration figures. It could be read as "OMIGOD! 250,000 new registrations! Over 75,000 in Wayne and Washtenaw Counties (Detroit and Ann Arbor)! We're doomed."
BUT
The site above can give you the actual numbers for every county, and for election 2000 as well. Here's what you find. Since July of this year, statewide registration is up 3.6%; Wayne is up 4.2%; Outstate (outside top 15 counties) is up 2.9%. SLight, but not massive, edge to Dem areas.
BUT
If you compare to election 2000, however, you find this:
Total state up 4.4%
Wayne up only 3.6%
Outstate up 5.1%;
Ottawa up 6.1% and Livingston (heavily GOP) up 12.7%.
Moderate edge to the GOP.
The truth is that there are always a lot of registrants before a Pres. election; They tend to have an edge to Dems, because more Dems move, are purged, etc, and have to re-register. There is always some possibility for fraud, but the totals are nothing out of the ordinary, no matter how much the Dem ranters want to pump it up and the GOP ranters want to fear the sky is falling. Get the vote out, watch the polling places, and all will be well.
so what actually is the net R vs. Dim?
Why are dems more likely to move than republicans?More likely the new dem registrants are derelicts,mentaly ill(why do you think the ACLU fights to keep them all on the streets)felons or multiple registrants from other states.
I'm just saying, we all have a tendancy to over-reach and panic that the DNC machine has found some un-detectable way to fraudulently register AND present votes. Perhaps we should all relax just enough to let our anxieties down, but not enough to be oblivious and unaware.
That is all.
Shhhh. In time, the ACLU will figure out that if they keep the mental cases locked up in one place it will be easier to sign them up to vote for Democrats.
Michigan does not register by party. If you extrapolate, for example, by assuming that every net new registrant votes the same way as the old registrants (so, c. 70-30 GOP in Ottawa county, 65-35 Dem in Wayne, etc), then you get a small net edge to the GOP from 2000 to 2004.
George W. Bush will be reelected by a margin of at least ten per cent
I heard one of the officials with the state of Ky talking about increased registrations. He said: I know we have had a lot of church groups registering"
The Gay Marriage is on the ballot here. Christians are mobilizing.
Lets hope this holds true for the rest of the country.
In 1990 the rain helped John Engler beat an incumbant Govenor because of low turnout in Wayne county.
Actually, good ole Coleman Young held back the vote in Detroit b/c he wasn't getting enough "favors" from then Gov. Blanchard.
The Democrats are rather blatant about their fraud. They don't care who knows. Liberals have been hysterical and shrill ever since their efforts failed in 2000 by a mere 500 votes.
I don't think anyone is paranoid for thinking they will make doubly sure to get it right this time. Ohio is reporting more voters registered than residents of the county in several areas and this is going on in other swing states.
Welfare: Walmart-Kmart, etc. subsudized employment by the taxpayers for those required to work 20 hours/week. Double whammy because of overhead.
They are free to move anywhere and still collect their checks. Most are not property owners and aren't particularly interested in it.
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