Michigan: WINNING STRATEGY

National Review Online Battlegrounder ^ | 31st Oct 2004 | [Henry Payne

[anonposter]

So what did the Bushies see that others did not?

Despite a wall of pundits conceding Kerry to Michigan, despite 37 of 40 polls tracking Kerry with comfortable margins, the Bushies still believed. They stepped up their Michigan efforts in these final weeks. And now, two days before Election Day, there it is in black and white: Kerry and Bush in a dead heat for Michigan according to The Detroit News and Zogby polls.

While the Bush Team won’t tell you directly, their Michigan faith seems to center on three factors: turnout, minorities, and multi-state strategy.

On turnout. Conventional wisdom says Republicans win when turnout is low; Democrats when turnout is high. Nonsense, says RNC chair Ed Gillespie. “We believe high turnout is good for us,” he said Friday. “My mentor was Haley Barbour, and he taught me that if we can get out our base of families, cultural conservatives, etc. we can win elections.” This would seem to vindicate the massive ad buying by Bush in conservative West Michigan – initially seen as a sign of weakness by a candidate unsure of his base. Instead, the strategy may be driving more people inclined to vote Republican to the polls. In black and union Southeast Michigan, on the other hand, the Bushies may be counting on low turnout for Kerry, who has inspired little passion among key Democratic voting blocs.

On minorities. Perhaps the Bushies see what The Wall Street Journal reported Friday: “Fresh support among traditionally Democratic Jewish and African American voters may have helped tighten races in normally Democratic New Jersey and Michigan.”

Seeking to exploit an opening among culturally-conservative blacks – one poll recently put 18 percent of black voters in Bush’s column – the president reportedly met with 26 African-American leaders, including ministers, politicians, and Don King, during his Pontiac stop last Wednesday.

And while Bush only received 19 percent of the Jewish vote versus Gore/Lieberman in 2000, there is evidence the politically active ethnic group is responding to Bush’s Mideast message. A poll, taken by the liberal American Jewish Committee this summer, gave Bush 25 percent of the Jewish vote, and Jewish Republican activists like Moe Freedman, founder of Detroit’s “Jews for George,” say there has been a noticeable rise in support since then.

On a multi-state strategy. “Michigan is not a state that I think Democrats wanted to be spending their resources or the candidates time in the final days of the race,” says Bush senior strategist Matthew Dowd. Indeed, if Kerry loses Michigan, he cannot win the country.

So by forcing Kerry to defend traditionally-Democratic turf like Michigan, Republicans are better positioned to battle him in states like Florida and Ohio. And, of course, there’s the added bonus of even winning Michigan – a blow to Kerry that would ensure a second Bush term.

[Anita1]

God bless you - that happened to me and my kids once! It was great! Just caused us to renew our efforts!