Posted on 10/30/2004 11:54:23 PM PDT by gab1279
PENSACOLA, FL If you want to know where the campaign stands, just see where the candidates sit today.
George W. Bush is spending the homestretch in states carried by Al Gore in 2000.
This morning, he hammered his war on terror theme to rapturous crowds in Wisconsin and Michigan. Later this afternoon he will be visiting what has long been considered one of the most liberal states in America: Minnesota.
Interestingly enough, John Kerry also finds himself today stuck on the defensive in states carried by Gore, like Wisconsin and Iowa.
By the way, I couldn't help notice how the crowds in Iowa were almost tepid in their response to Kerry's negative message while the President was greeted like a rock star in Wisconsin and Michigan
As I learned when we Congressional Republicans tried to take on Bill Clinton in the '90s, there's just something about that presidential bully pulpit.
Bush insiders are beginning to believe that internal polls they are viewing point to one unmistakable conclusion: four more years for their man. Bushies are cheered by the fact that with 48 hours left in what was to be a barnburner campaign, the Kerry camp is still sweating out the details in New Jersey and Hawaii two states that Al Gore won by almost 20 points just four years ago.
Terror is the defining feature in both states, with Hawaiians looking westward where Al Qaeda continues to spread its politics of death, and New Jersey residents remembering the burning New York skyline just to their east across the Hudson River in 2001.
Add to those poll numbers the latest Bin Laden bombshell and you have all the makings of an early evening call for George W. Bush...
(Excerpt) Read more at msnbc.msn.com ...
"I agree. I remember last time that there were states that Bush easily won on the East coast (e.g. SC, NC, VA) and the networks were showing big vote total leads, but they waited to call for Bush"
Yup. If Gore was up by 3% with 13% of the votes counted it was called for Gore. When Bush was up by same, the media adopted a different standard called it "in play".
They pull this BS again and I'm going after them.
Oh they will I'm almost sure of it. I read an article where they said at the beginning of their prime time coverage, they were going to go ahead and put the electoral vote totals of california, new york, mass, etc etc...in Kerry's column immediately, thus giving the illusion he is winning. They will wait until 80 or 90% of the vote is in, to tally bush states. Thats why im going to watch fox. Screw the liberal game. Rather and company will have to answer to their viewers when they cant understand in the least bit how Bush won.
I'm sure Kerry knows and cares about the Filipino community...his family has probably hired them as servants for decades.
That would be 7-7:30 West Coast time. I could live with that.
I think for that reason, the networks won't call the election until after 8:00 Calif. time (11:00 eastern).
One would hope, but we'll see... I could imagine certain networks screwing up on purpose, once they see their earlier attempts at propping up Kerry fail so miserably.
If Bush pulls of a "November Surprise" by taking Pennsylvania or New Jersey early in the evening, or simply runs ahead of his vote tallies of 2000 among the eastern states, the election will be "over" regardless of how long the networks take to proclaim Bush the winner.
One of the Kerry girls is here, mouthing the usual Kerry lies. I don't understand how someone who appears so intelligent and sincere can push such nonsense on people.
Polls in Ohio close at 6:30 p.m. CST. In Florida they close at 7 p.m. CST (in the panhandle!! -- in the rest of Florida they close at 6 p.m. CST). If both states get called for Bush, the election is over. If they are "too close to call", that's an indication that it will be a long night, and we'll have to wait for the upper midwest (MN, IA and WI) to chime in. If, God forbid, OH & FL both get called for Kerry, Bush can start packing his bags.
On name ID, Kerry is 52 vs 46 (Favorable / Unfavorable) and Bush is 55 vs 43. Telling to me is seeing Kerry has 32 Strongly Favorable vs 35 Strongly Unfavorable--yes that's 3% more Strongly Unfavorable than Strongly Favorable. Bush has 41 Strongly Favorable vs 33 Strongly Unfavorable.
People hate Kerry more than they hate Bush! Who would you vote for Bush 50 vs Kerry 45 with 5% undecided but when you say "Definitely vote for" it's Bush 46 vs Kerry 42.
Vote for a Dem or Pubbie in your district it's tied 44-44 which usually is good news for the GOP.
Power corrupts. Anything to get elected. It's smelling like Gore's despair in 2000.
Actually, Kerry *must* have Florida. He cannot win without it. I sure hope we *do* take Florida. And Ohio.
He just can't wait to order around those Filipino Navy stewards who serve the White House.
In your opinion is the shift in Filipino sentiment a reaction to MILF collaboration with Al Qaeda?
That would be my guess. Might also be the union domination here that some are fed up with. I don't think they're as heavily involved with the unions. Also, the economy is going gangbusters here, so that's not an issue. Could be the abortion stuff - they're more traditional Catholics. Lots of things going on I think.
For you to be right you have to beleive that no network will "jump the gun" and make a prediction prior to 11:00pm east coast time.
I doubt that the required level of integrity exists at all of the MSM ....CBS,NBC,ABC,CNN,PBS.
I predict you will see the same level of bias as we saw in 2000....they will just try to be more subtile about it.
Now that TVS (whatever their consolidated vote count deal was called) is history....there is less restraint on an individual network to toe the line; and it didn't work when TVS was in existance. On election night, the networks live for early calls!
Any early call of the race will be if they can call it for Kerry.
Yes, he hires their people on all eight of his estates.
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