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Kerry and Bush Remain Tied (American Research Group Poll)
American Research Group ^ | 10/30

Posted on 10/30/2004 2:39:13 PM PDT by ambrose

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1 posted on 10/30/2004 2:39:14 PM PDT by ambrose
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To: ambrose
ARG = Absolutely Real Garbage.
2 posted on 10/30/2004 2:40:11 PM PDT by atomicpossum (If there are two Americas, John Edwards isn't qualified to lead either of them.)
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To: atomicpossum

I think these are Bush's best numbers in an ARG poll all year long, believe it or not.

They sampled 40% Democrats, 35% Republicans.


3 posted on 10/30/2004 2:41:14 PM PDT by ambrose
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To: ambrose

Let's see 35% Repubs. 40% Dem and this poll has NEVER shown a Bush lead?

Not too worried about this one.


4 posted on 10/30/2004 2:41:49 PM PDT by montereyp1
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To: ambrose

Ok...I am getting up early to vote on Tuesday then I am going to slip into a coma and wake up after the smoke clears. This is like a bad elevator ride...up and down!


5 posted on 10/30/2004 2:41:52 PM PDT by Heff ("Liberty is not America's gift to the world, it's the Almighty's gift to humanity" GW Bush 4/12/04)
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To: atomicpossum

What a myth. It has never really been tied from the beginning and in about 55 hours, we'll know that the margin has always been between 6 and 8.


6 posted on 10/30/2004 2:42:22 PM PDT by Galtoid
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To: atomicpossum

What a myth. It has never really been tied from the beginning and in about 55 hours, we'll know that the margin has always been between 6 and 8.


7 posted on 10/30/2004 2:42:23 PM PDT by Galtoid
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To: ambrose

Great news! This means bush is up 5 or 6 points!


8 posted on 10/30/2004 2:42:42 PM PDT by flashbunny (Every thought that enters my head requires its own vanity thread.)
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To: Heff

THis polls shows a Bush surge. Look at the internals. Bush has NEVER done this well and it's 35-40% in facor od Dems!

THIS IS GOOD NEWS!


9 posted on 10/30/2004 2:43:09 PM PDT by montereyp1
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To: ambrose

If I am reading this right, this is the first time that the President has been tied with Kerry in this poll. It also is his best personal poll number, never having polled above 46% previously. All things considered, not a bad poll, considering where it is from.


10 posted on 10/30/2004 2:44:20 PM PDT by KellyAdmirer
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To: ambrose

Another AARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRGGGGGH! Poll?


11 posted on 10/30/2004 2:44:52 PM PDT by okstate (I'm John Kerry, and I approved this message... before I decided against it.)
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To: ambrose
ARG is weighted Dem + 5 (based on the 2000 turnout, no doubt). This is important because ARG, I believe, uses party affiliation as a demographic parameter. I think that the actual turnout will be closer to a rough parity, which suggests President Bush may have an advantage (Bush keeping more Rs than Kerry is keeping Ds). This poll is good news, in that President Bush has done as well in this round as he has all year against an aggressively pro-Dem turnout assumption.
12 posted on 10/30/2004 2:47:48 PM PDT by Warlord
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To: okstate

Didn't they release one earlier in the week showing Kerry up 49-46? They don't show it in these charts, perhaps because their own poll shows Kerry losing support


13 posted on 10/30/2004 2:48:01 PM PDT by rocklobster11
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To: ambrose

Let's take a poll. How many Freepers are sick of polls?
Bush Lead Widens Among Likely Voters -- Newsweek [Large lead published by Newsweek and Reuters?

Washington Post: Bush 49%, Kerry 48% - 10/30/04

CT-4 Poll: Shays (R) 47, Farrell (D) 42

Just released FoxNews Poll Bush: 47, Kerry 45 (likely voters)

ABC Poll: Bush-Kerry Race Closing Close (ABC suggests little change in last night's numbers)

Kerry and Bush Remain Tied (American Research Group Poll)


14 posted on 10/30/2004 2:49:19 PM PDT by airborne (God answers all prayers. Sometimes the answer is ,"No".)
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To: rocklobster11

Never mind. Maybe that was a state poll.


15 posted on 10/30/2004 2:49:22 PM PDT by rocklobster11
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To: ambrose

Sampling skewed toward Dems.Bovine Scatology.


16 posted on 10/30/2004 2:49:35 PM PDT by Apercu ("Rep ipsa loquitor")
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To: ambrose

Good observation. ARG is garbage, and even with that, we're tied. Compare that to the Oct 4th poll the headline should read "Bush surging".


17 posted on 10/30/2004 2:50:23 PM PDT by ProudVet77 (W stands for Winner)
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To: Galtoid

Heck of a lot better than their early Oct. poll.


18 posted on 10/30/2004 2:55:10 PM PDT by rwfromkansas (BYPASS FORCED WEB REGISTRATION! **** http://www.bugmenot.com ****)
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To: ambrose

This poll is overly infested with Rats. If you even out the Republican and Democrat representation, I get Bush 49.5%, Kerry 46.8%, with the rest undecided in this always consistently left-leaning poll.


19 posted on 10/30/2004 2:57:13 PM PDT by kesg
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To: kesg; Torie; AntiGuv
I think this poll might reflect the scenario Dems fantasize about and our worst case scenario.... hoards of "new" voters flood the polls, stuff the ballot boxes, Republicans are well outnumbered...

net result? still a tie race.


looking good.
20 posted on 10/30/2004 3:00:12 PM PDT by ambrose
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