[fideist]

Yesterday the same poll had Bush up 5, and now after the UBL video, Bush lost 3 points?

[slowhand520]

I don't think we can make a concensus on a 24 hour poll

[eat it, gore]

Don't forget MOE! He could *actually* be up 5-6 points still, easily. Take enough polls and you'll get results that are too low sometimes. The key thing to do is look at the average of the polls, which show W is up 3-4 points still ... enough for 300+ EVs.

[Tarpon]

Brit has said that the Friday poll was the last before the elction. What gives? I can't find aurl on foxnews. Any help.

MSNBC just released their 'last poll' it showed Bush up by 6.

[mlocher]

Yesterday the same poll had Bush up 5, and now after the UBL video, Bush lost 3 points?

remember, there are lies, damn lies and then statistics.

this stuff is done by broadcating companies to get stories. put your money where the profesional pollsters are...

[finnman69]

It's not the same poll.

[marvlus]

Yesterday the same poll had Bush up 5, and now after the UBL video, Bush lost 3 points?

This was with registered voters, not likely voters.

[infohawk]

The poll was fine for the President. It was conducted on Thursday and Friday. Republicans generally don't poll as well on weekends (Friday). Just look at what typically happens with Rasmussen's weekend polls. It usually tightens up only to open up a little by the middle of the week. I'm sure the Fox poll was also a small sample size.

What I noticed about the poll is that, although it showed the race tightening, Kerry did not gain a single point from the previous Fox poll, and he is performing horrifically among women compared to how democrats usually do. In other words, no sign in this particular poll that Kerry the challenger is surging. This is good. I'm no statistician, but this could also show that Kerry has a lower ceiling of support than the President. If true, this is very good news. The poll also showed a six-point lead among men for the President. I'm sure he leads by more than six. The poll also had Kerry up a only one point among women. If so, Kerry cannot possibly win. Other polls have shown Bush doing far better among men. These same polls show Kerry doing better slightly better among women. Kerry is having problems with security moms.

Only about half of the polling was conducted after the Bin Laden tape was released. Give people another day or so to continue to digest the implications of the Bin Laden tape.

[kingattax]

this is propaganda BS ...ignore it

[kesg]

According to the writeup, the poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, not yesterday. The movement looks like statistical noise, as all tracking polls mostly are.