Just like 2000, the polls are off (Barf alert)

The Hill ^ | October 30, 2004 | Mark Mellman

[FlyingFish]

Where does this presidential race stand? Unfortunately the plethora of public polls does more to confuse than to clarify. Contorting and distorting the data with absurd “likely voter” models only makes matters worse.

Cutting through the clutter, a few facts are clear:

• Averaging the recent polls together gives George W. Bush a one-point lead, 47 percent for Bush to 46 percent for John Kerry.

• About 5 percent of the electorate remains undecided.

• Almost every poll that has released battleground-state results shows Kerry ahead there. For instance, the ABC/Washington Post poll that had Kerry four points behind nationally said he leads by 10 in the swing states.

• Historically, between 70 percent and 100 percent of the late undecideds break toward the challenger.

• This group of undecideds should be no exception. They are much more likely to give Bush negative ratings than the electorate at large and much more likely to say that the country is seriously off on the wrong track.

• Historically, winning incumbents have had 60 percent of the vote at this stage of the campaign. No president has been reelected whose vote did not exceed 51 percent of the two-party vote at this point in October.

[cajungirl]

A downer for sure.

[Drango]

Historically, between 70 percent and 100 percent

100% huh? What jibberish.

[garbanzo]

The Kerry loser cry begins...we got two and half more days to see the meltdown.

[Heff]

WTF....this just ruined my day!

[cajungirl]

this isn't a kerry loser cry,,this is a prediction that Kerry will win.

[revealerls]

Word on the street is Undecideds are breaking Bush. This guys a lib.

[RWR8189]

Bush was the challenger in 2000, Gore was the quasi-incumbent. There's no reason everything couldn't break the exact opposite of what he just said.

All this analysis is bunk and we have to wait until Tuesday to find out the truth.

[Psycho_Bunny]

• About 5 percent of the electorate remains undecided.

So, "undecided" is now the euphemism we're using for "incomprehensibly stupid"?

How do these people's brains muster the will power to keep their hearts beating?

[tdewey10]

Almost every battleground poll has Bush ahead. This guy is living in a bomb shelter.

[Dr Snide]

Mellman is president of The Mellman Group and has worked for Democratic candidates and causes since 1982, including Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) this year.

All you really need to know

[100American]

Read the article to the bottom folks, the guy who wrote this drivel works for Kerry and has been working for Dems since 1982.

Sack up folks!!

[gobucks]

Hey, you are not a newbie, yet no barf alert?

[ol painless]

"Historically, between 70 percent and 100 percent of the late undecideds break toward the challenger."

This is totally false. Historically late undecideds almost always break for the incumbent. Only exception was Reagan in 1980. Ask longtime dem. pollster Pat Cadell who has carefully studied the data.

[finnman69]

Where's the BARF ALERT? This was written by a Kerry supporting RAT Hack!

Mellman is president of The Mellman Group and has worked for Democratic candidates and causes since 1982, including Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) this year.

[GOP_Proud]

Was it my imagination, or did I just see the map at electoral-vote.com take WA, OR and CA from strong Kerry to weak Kerry?

What is going on?

[jocon307]

Per that little bio at the end of the article:

"Mellman is president of The Mellman Group and has worked for Democratic candidates and causes since 1982, including Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) this year."

Hardly an unbiased analyst.

[Tribune7]

These Dems remind me of me in the '96 election. But get mad not complacent.

[finnman69]