[coconutt2000]

I know why Osama released this video. He has to quell a division in his organization. There's a power struggle and he needed this video out to thumb his nose at Bush, in order to try and solidify his base.

Osama is dead if he can't convince whoever is harboring him that he still retains control of Al Qaeda. Without Al Qaeda, Osama is useless... even as a figure head he'd be useless.

If Bush wins, Osama is screwed, and very likely he'll be handed over to us or silently killed. If Kerry wins, Osama wins and we'll probably see quick and rapid cleaning house in Al Qaeda of a few top leaders who thought they could take over with Osama out of the way.

This is a diabolical game of realpolitik and Osama is in trouble. He only has the card of fear to play, and he's got one hell of a bluffing face.

[Question Liberal Authority]

Plus if Kerry loses, it clears the decks for Hillary in '08.

[TigerLikesRooster]

Re #2

Good points.

[Barlowmaker]

BUMP!

Do you think the video released by the Californi-jihadi poofter two days earlier forced his hand?

[GOPJ]

If Bush wins, Osama is screwed, and very likely he'll be handed over to us or silently killed. If Kerry wins, Osama wins and we'll probably see quick and rapid cleaning house in Al Qaeda of a few top leaders who thought they could take over with Osama out of the way.

You're right. Middle Eastern leaders who acted on the "death" of Osama, are the ones quaking now. Wanna be competing terrorist leaders are also on the potential chopping block.

If Kerry wins the shift to Osama will be quick, undoable, and complete. Extreme actions will be used to show loyalty. The shift quickens movement to the new perceived winning side. Consolidation of true believes will be brutal. After consolidation, the changes will be permanent.

Knowing the way the wind blows in totalitarian societies, is a survival requirement. Traditions of "it's meant to be" come out of this harsh environment -- reinforcing the messianic qualities of the twisted messenger.

[livius]

Very good analyses from both of you.

[headsonpikes]

If Kerry wins, Osama wins...

I think you've hit on the decisive stakes of Tuesday's election - I cannot believe that Americans are willing to give Osama that win, when America holds the Aces of might and right.

However, as you say of Osama, "...he's got one hell of a bluffing face."

I hope that foolish, frightened Democrats can for once do the right thing and support George Bush and America.