Impact Of Tape On Race Is Uncertain

Clearly, the bin Laden cameo in the 2004 presidential race has the potential to cut both ways. Weighing in Bush's favor is that Americans have typically rallied around the president when they have felt threatened, and bin Laden's tape is menacing. Also, the fact that bin Laden was making his presence known through a videotape rather than through a Madrid-style attack could be seen as evidence that Bush had done his job of protecting the public.

.....This time, it was Kerry's side urging television networks to be cautious in playing the tape.

"If you've got Osama back on the scene talking about 9/11 but not making an attack, it could be the best of both worlds" for Bush, said Republican strategist Jeff Bell. "It's good for Bush, the fact that [bin Laden] hasn't been able to attack, except for verbally."

Kerry aides appeared visibly alarmed aboard the candidate's plane as they planned a response to the tape's airing. One prominent Democrat speculated that for swing voters who have not followed the election closely, bin Laden's reappearance may well boost Bush.

.... the bin Laden appearance may reinforce some of Kerry's arguments. Bin Laden practically quoted Kerry when he said "Bush is still deceiving you and hiding the truth from you," and he seemed to be familiar with the liberal filmmaker Michael Moore's "Fahrenheit 9/11" and its mockery of Bush for reading "My Pet Goat" with children while the World Trade Center towers burned....

....Mike McCurry appeared unusually somber as he told reporters that the candidate would proceed with the campaign as if the tape had not appeared. "It's very important for us to move forward. ...

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

OSAMA BIN LADEN (through translator): Your security is not in the hands of Kerry or Bush or al Qaeda. Your security is in your own hands. Any nation that does not attack us will not be attacked.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: OK, Walter. What do you make of this?

CRONKITE: Well, I make it out to be initially the reaction that it's a threat to us, that unless we make peace with him, in a sense, we can expect further attacks. He did not say that precisely, but it sounds like that when he says...

KING: The warning.

CRONKITE: What we just heard. So now the question is basically right now, how will this affect the election? And I have a feeling that it could tilt the election a bit. In fact, I'm a little inclined to think that Karl Rove, the political manager at the White House, who is a very clever man, he probably set up bin Laden to this thing. The advantage to the Republican side is to get rid of, as a principal subject of the campaigns right now, get rid of the whole problem of the al Qaqaa explosive dump. Right now, that, the last couple of days, has, I think, upset the Republican campaign.

KING: Are there enough undecideds to tilt this? Or what do you think of the whole election picture?

CRONKITE: Well, I think it's one of the biggest messes we've had in a long time. I believe that we're undoubtedly not going to know the results of this election. I don't want to knock you off the air on Monday night or anything, or Tuesday night. But I suspect that we're not going to know who the next president is, whether it is Bush or the new man, until very probably sometime in the early spring. There's so much controversy that they're planting, deliberately planting at the polls, that there's almost certainly to be a suit going back to the Supreme Court eventually, going through the other courts slowly first.

KING: Who's to blame for this?

CRONKITE: Who's to blame for it really is the intensity of this campaign. Plus the fact that we have a preface to this in the last campaign. What year was that now?

KING: 2000.

CRONKITE: 2000. Thank you very much. We saw that we could go to court. We saw that with watchers on both sides, heavily mounted police to watch from both sides the polling in many states, nearly all of the heavy states. And in those cases, they will be finding every possible reason to file against the results.

KING: So you're saying, unless there is a clear-cut winner...

CRONKITE: And that's highly unlikely, it seems to me. From the polls, we know now that it's very, very close. And the key states with the heavy electorate votes.

KING: Now, bin Laden, of course, could help Bush in that it reminds people of a terror issue in which he runs strong. It also could hurt Bush in that reminds people he's still alive. So this could be a double edged sword, right?

CRONKITE: Indeed. Indeed. And the thing that in bringing this threat to us, there is almost, in the fact that he dressed well, that he looked well, he was clean shaven, nearly clean shaven as those folks get. It seemed almost, to me, that he wanted to enter into negotiations, that he was really up -- he wants to move into a leadership role in international affairs instead of the role of a brigand. And he spoke calmly about this thing. The threat was there, no question about it. He's delivering a warning to us, no question about that. And certainly, I don't think there's any reason to feel that we can take him to our bosom just because this speech at all. He's perfectly capable of blowing us up.

KING: He sure is. Is Iraq the central issue in this campaign?

CRONKITE: I feel it is. I feel it is. We do know that the economy is very important. Unemployment very important to a lot of people. And a lot -- and besides unemployment, there are a lot of people who are poorly paid in the United States today. We've got a poverty list, which is we forget about the percentage of poverty, families in the United States. It's quite shameful. They're to be considered as well. And if the Democrats have succeeded, are succeeding in registering as many people as is indicated, they're going to have a fairly good bloc of votes on the economy.

KING: Do you expect a huge turnout?

CRONKITE: What?

KING: A huge turnout?

CRONKITE: Oh, yes, I do. I think so. The only thing that could damage the turnout would be the threats that might be implied, as many of the new registrees are challenged as to their various things. Their spelling of their name and the state where they really come from, whether they're immigrants or not, do they have passports, all that kind of thing. If they are challenged at the polls, as they line up to go into the polls, they may fear having to answer all those questions. Particularly if they do have anything wrong about them and shouldn't vote.

KING: We'll take a break and be back with some more moments from Walter Cronkite, and then an outstanding panel will join us as we approach the election. And it will finally be over. Don't go away.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Let me make this very clear. Americans will not be intimidated or influenced by an enemy of our country. I'm sure Senator Kerry agrees with this. I also want to say to the American people that we are at war with these terrorists. And I am confident that we will prevail. Thank you very much.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: In response to this tape of Osama bin Laden, let me just make it clear, crystal clear. As Americans, we are absolutely united in our determination to hunt down and destroy Osama bin Laden and the terrorists. They are barbarians. And I will stop at absolutely nothing to hunt down, capture, or kill the terrorists wherever they are, whatever it takes, period.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: We're back with Walter Cronkite. Why has this campaign -- and you've been through a lot of them -- been so vituperative?

CRONKITE: I think partly because of the nature of the administration. It has offended a large number of people quite seriously, right down to their souls, apparently. The war has not supported fully, certainly by all the people. The economy has touched a lot of our people. And they feel very strongly about it. So there is a very definite body there in opposition to the administration, as we know. And the administration itself has a lot of support. I think that mostly it's really locked into the Iraqi situation.

KING: Will Ralph Nader be a factor?

CRONKITE: He certainly could be. He was very serious factor with 3 percent of the vote, not quite 3 percent of the vote in 19...

KING: 2000.

CRONKITE: 2000, that is. I've covered too many presidential campaigns. In 2000. And, look, Ross Perot had 9 percent the year that he ran seriously. Just think if Nader got anything like that. He can certainly upset the vote across the nation.

KING: But he will not get that.

CRONKITE: Could possibly even do it with 3 percent, if it's that close, as close as it seems like it might be. I don't know if he'll get 3 percent this year. I don't think he's been at prominent in the campaign as he was in 2000. So maybe he won't even get that many. However, there's a hidden problem there. And that's the environment.

He is the only candidate who has been talking about our environment. It's been dropped into a few speeches by Kerry, but just barely mentioned. That's one of the problems. That's not enough for the environmentalists. They just might go for the Green Party.

KING: Do you have a forecast other than waiting until March and April? Who's it going to be in March or April?

CRONKITE: Boy, if I just had a hint of that, I could probably make a million dollars overnight. That is, after the election.

KING: So you have no idea?

CRONKITE: I have no idea. I really don't. I follow the campaigns as closely as one can, and it looks to me like it's just as close as the polls indicate it is. And we're not going to really know, as I say, we're not going to know on Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. We're going -- it's going to be some time before we get the answer.

KING: A couple of other things. We're all in that zipper club. Have you spoken to president Clinton? You had the surgery.

CRONKITE: I spoke to him shortly after he had his operation, yes.

KING: And what did he say?

CRONKITE: Well, we talked about operations. I'd had one, a quadruple bypass.

KING: You and I have the same doctor.

CRONKITE: Yes, right. So I was giving him my medical advice.

KING: Dr. Wayne Eisam (ph). He's the best.

CRONKITE: That wasn't his surgeon.

KING: No, that wasn't his doctor. They were trying to get Wayne. He was out of town or something.

CRONKITE: Is that what happened? I mentioned it, and he kind of passed over it. But Wayne is an amazing doctor.

KING: Amazing. And how is your health?

CRONKITE: My health is absolutely excellent. I still creep around a little bit from a torn Achilles tendon, but I'm rather proud of it. I got it on the tennis court at the age of 85, and I figure that I can live on that for a while.

KING: You're going to be 88 next week, right?

CRONKITE: Yes, indeed.

KING: Do you feel 88?

CRONKITE: Heck no. I can't believe it. I really can't believe it. Every once in a while, I kind of shudder. 88? My gosh, that's an old man. And I don't feel that at all. There is not an activity that we perform in the human race that I'm not prepared to undergo again.

KING: You're a great credit to that race. Thank you, Walter.

CRONKITE: Thank you very much, Larry. Good luck to you tonight.

KING: Thank you. Walter Cronkite, who keeps on keeping on. We'll introduce our panel right after this. Don't go away.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BUSH: The president must base decisions on principle, core convictions from which you will never waiver. The issues vary. The challenges are different every day. The polls go up, the polls go down. But a president's convictions must be consistent and true.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0410/29/lkl.01.html

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