Bush and Kerry in Dead Heat - Reuters Poll (Zogby Battleground Tracking)

Reuters ^ | October 29th, 2004 | John Whitesides

[okstate]

"The state-by-state results: In Colorado, Bush led 47-46 percent; Florida, Kerry 47-45 percent; Iowa, Bush 45-44 percent; Michigan, Bush 48-46 percent; Minnesota, Kerry 49-43 percent; New Mexico, Bush 51-42 percent; Nevada, Bush 51-44 percent; Ohio, Bush 46-45 percent; Pennsylvania, Kerry 47-44; and Wisconsin, Kerry 50-45 percent."

Good grief. This definitely deserves the Zogby Sauce jokes.

[AmishDude]

Reuters/Zogby -- double-barrelled bias.

[okstate]

Assuming Bush wins WV, AR, and MO... and Kerry gets OR, WA, NH, ME, and NJ... Bush would win 276-262 with these numbers.

[FreeKeys]

Assuming is for losers.  Remember the "DUI discovery" worked against Bush by a LOT at the last minute in 2000.  Who knows what the 'rats will pull on Sunday night and Monday?  It ain't over until it's over.  So KEEP ON CAMPAIGNING !    Consider copying and emailing things like THIS again.

[Strategerist]

The wandering of CO by Zogby is freaking hilarious......

[Recovering_Democrat]

Saucified!

[COEXERJ145]

Zogsauce and his polls are becoming more and more schizophrenic by the day.

[PhiKapMom]

I am so sick and tired of polls and threads on polls -- everyone needs to get off their duffs and go vote and quit worry about the electoral college or biased polling!

One more doom and gloom thread or comment and I may be going through the roof on here. This posting of these crap polls along with the doom and gloom comments are annoying at the very least and disgusting as the days have gone by.

I wouldn't believe Reuters or Zogby if they told me the sky was blue -- I would go check!

[Ruth C]

These are not the polls to watch. Here are two good posts on which polls are good and which to watch.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1261205/posts
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1261963/posts

[harpu]

I do not believe what Zogby is trying to spread.

[Flight of the Phoenix]

This is the first time that I have read Zogby admitting that Kerry is not getting as high a black vote as Gore did in 2000. In fact he sarcastically dismissed those who had seen the trend of the black voter going in the direction of George Bush. He's now confirmed what others had previously seen. I think that's pretty important.

[Ruth C]

Too many didn't believe it and too many don't understand that the reason for it is many Blacks see President Bush and realize that he does not use Blacks. If you watch him you will see he treats Blacks just as he treats everyone else and that resonates.

[Flight of the Phoenix]

I'm curious. Your name wouldn't be Vancat at College Confidential, would it? I got booted off of their discussion boards about a month ago for supposedly being too partisan and too hard on a clown named Simba.

[COEXERJ145]

Nope, never heard of the site.

[Murp]

So Bush gained 4 points, and now leads in Ohio?

[True_wesT]

A word about polls. First, Zogby's record of state polling is awful, so I ignore him. I trust Mason-Dixon. As for RealClear, look closely at their averages. Some of the averages include polls that are two weeks old. And the averages are also somewhat deceptive. Take Minnesota. RCP averages four polls: Zogby, Humphrey, Rasmussen, and St. Cloud, all taken between 10/19 and 10/28. In order, they are Bush +1, Bush +3, Bush +3 and Kerry +7. The average shows a tie. The +7 for Kerry is obviously an outlier, yet it tied the average. And St. Cloud is the only one in the group that is not a professional pollster.

I like RealClear. I check them daily. But look at the guts of their averages before you panic.

[DAC22]

It's Friday, I have a couple glasses of Chardonnay in me, I'll say what you guys want to. "Zogby is a terrorist sympathizer"

[NoControllingLegalAuthority]

Post #9, first link is the Horserace blog. It discusses why both Reuters and Zogby are questionable. Gallup is the most reliable and it has Bush ahead.

Folks, Missouri is the microcosm of our country. Kerry has conceded Missouri and is not spending another dollar there. Kerry will lose, PERIOD!

There is not a single state Bush won in 2000 in which he currently trails in reliable polls. There are several states Gore won in which Kerry trails Bush.

This race is not as close in the electoral vote as the mainstream media tries to portray it.

[True_wesT]

I certainly don't think that, Sparky. Put down the bottle. Just because he stinks at state polling doesn't make him UBL. His National polling is pretty good.

[Spook86]

I tend to agree with you; in a "perfect" media world, we'd be hearing about the imploding Kerry campaign. Consider this: the pivotal, final weekend of the Presidental campaign is being fought on J. Francois Kerry's home turf, in states and among voting groups he should have locked up weeks ago. And, despite concerted efforts at voter fraud and intimidation, he has written off Florida! Could you imagine the headlines if Bush was scaling back his effort in FL at this juncture of the campaign? The media hacks would be writing his political obituary. Like an experienced sniper, W is picking off his targets one, by one, and he's playing offense--not defense. Barring an unexpected calamity, I expect the GOP ground game will give Bush an added bump this weekend, and he'll win by 4-5 points on Tuesday--and carry Ohio.