Posted on 10/29/2004 1:07:22 PM PDT by Stoat
George W. Bush is heading for a surprise landslide victory in next week's presidential elections, going by online betting patterns.
Although U.S. opinion polls are still finding it hard to separate President Bush from his Democratic challenger, Sen. John Kerry, customers of Betfair, an online betting exchange, have overwhelmingly backed the Republican candidate.
Betfair's latest figures show 2.3 million pounds ($4.2 million) have been wagered on Bush, while Kerry has attracted only 680,000 pounds ($1.25 million) in bets. Bush is now at 1-5 odds to stay in office, whereas gamblers can still get odds of 2-1 on Kerry to win.
Betfair said its betting patterns are a more accurate indication of election results than the opinion polls. The patterns correctly predicted that Australia's Prime Minister John Howard would comfortably secure a surprise victory in last month's general election.
Mark Davies, director of communications at Betfair, said opinion polls only survey a small percentage of the population, who have no real incentive to provide accurate information.
"In contrast, Betfair's prices are based on people who are prepared to put their money where their mouth is," Davies said in a statement. "Our figures have proved to be an amazingly accurate indicator at both the Australian general election last month and the California governor's election last year. As a result, we're sure George Bush will be pleased to hear that Betfair's sharp-minded punters are backing him to the hilt."
Andy McCue of Silicon.com reported from London.
Guess Soros hasn't heard of this site yet! :)
We'll take it!
I've been saying this for days.
Bush is going to take the National Election by at least 7 points.
How it shakes out state to state is still up in the air but he's going to win. I have faith in the silent majority. We haven't been heard from yet. I've never been polled. (Although I do live in VA)
That doesn't appear to be right. If I'm reading betfair's site correctly (election is under "Special Bets", USA), a bet on Kerry pays 2.12 to 1 and a bet on Bush pays 1.87 to 1, which is a decent but not overwhelming edge. It's still a wider gap than tradesports where Bush has fallen to 52, so there are probably arbitrage opportunities.
AWESOME!
Don't you just love it? Victory is coming next week, and we are holding the Presidency and GAINING in the Senate (Southern Seat vacancies) and House (Texas seats).
I can't wait till election day! Bush wins, America wins! :)
I don't think you can "arbitrage" something that you can't resell. The idea would be to buy a "Bush" on one market and immediately sell it for more on the other market and pocket the difference. You repeat until the exchange rates are the same.
These are not marketable securities that can be traded on other excanges.
But it may be an opportunity to make a buck. :-)
If I were a gambler, I'd be tempted to jump on that 300+ EV for Pres. Bush option on tradesports
The idea is to buy Kerry bets on betfair and Bush contracts on tradesports. Betfair appears to pay 2.18 to 1 for a Kerry win, so buy $1000 there which will pay either $2180 or $0. Simultaneously buy 21.8 Bush contracts at tradesports at $51 (total cost $1112), which will also pay either $2180 or $0. So you've spent $2112 with a guaranteed payout of $2180. Of course, transaction costs might erase the profit.
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