Why Bush Will Win

The New York Post ^ | 10/29/2004 | Dick Morris

[IndianPrincessOK]

WHY BUSH WILL WIN By DICK MORRIS -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- October 29, 2004 -- HERE'S a two-part test to determine who will win on Tuesday: a) Ask yourself: What is the issue we are talking about these days? Are we focused on terrorism and Iraq, or on health care and jobs? The answer is obvious: terrorism and Iraq.

[IndianPrincessOK]

WHY BUSH WILL WIN By DICK MORRIS -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- October 29, 2004 -- HERE'S a two-part test to determine who will win on Tuesday: a) Ask yourself: What is the issue we are talking about these days? Are we focused on terrorism and Iraq, or on health care and jobs? The answer is obvious: terrorism and Iraq. b) Now look at the polls. Not the page that shows who they're voting for. That changes every hour. Look at the page that asks, "Which candidate do you think would do the best job of handling the war in Iraq?" The answer is always President Bush, usually by 10 points. And right below that, on "Which candidate do you think would do the best job of handling the War on Terror?" Bush leads again, usually by 20 points. If the issue is terrorism and Iraq, and Bush wins those issues by double digits, then the winner will be . . . voila, Bush! John Kerry was on the verge of moving out to a victory after the third debate. Taking advantage of its pre-ordained focus on domestic issues, he had finally, finally swung the debate back to the issues on which he has — and has always had — a lead: domestic policy. Next he got a short-term bounce from Bill Clinton's presence on the campaign trail and seemed on his way to closing the Bush lead. Then came the "disappearing explosives" story. Kerry's handlers, tacticians to the last, disregarded the needs of basic strategy and hopped on the issue with all four feet, running a TV ad lambasting Bush for losing the weapons after the invasion. Strategically, this flawed decision assured that the final week of the campaign would focus on the areas of Bush's strength and Kerry's weakness: Iraq and terrorism. Tactically, it tied the electorate's confidence in John Kerry to the mystery of what actually happened in an ammo dump in the desert 18 months ago. Then it began to explode in Kerry's face. Soon we heard that there were only three tons of explosives . . . and they weren't there when we occupied the dump . . . and they were removed by the Russians before we got there . . . and, perhaps, there are satellite photos to prove it. All of a sudden, Kerry seems just not ready for prime time. The backfire is amplified by the involvement of CBS and The New York Times. The plans of "60 Minutes" and Dan Rather to break the story on the Sunday before the election reflect overt partisan bias — an overt conspiracy of these leading outlets to stack the deck in favor of Kerry. This controversy unraveling in front of us all, replete with conspiracy theories and denouement of media bias, is enough to occupy our attention and rivet our focus as Election Day approaches. It will drive all other stories off the front pages and will make the war in Iraq the key element in the election. At this writing, the possibility that the alleged al Qaeda tape virtually endorsing Kerry will hit the airwaves makes one even more confident of a Bush victory. A threat to let blood run in the streets of America if Bush wins won't intimidate voters, but rather remind them of the importance of sending a warrior to fight the terrorists — and seal Bush's victory.

[grobdriver]

WHY BUSH WILL WIN By DICK MORRIS

Damn!
Now I'm worried!

[Mamzelle]

Oh, dear. While I always enjoy hearing what Dick Morris has to say, he has been so often wrong--

[Perdogg]

Oh lord!!! We're Doomed!

[Rutles4Ever]

I wish I was this sanguine. The American public thinks Jennifer Lopez passes for talent.

It's going to be filthy-close. Just my opinion.

[GodBlesBush]

Bush is down to 52 on Tradesports. The lowest I've seen him since I've been checking that site. It's all because of Ohio. He's spent too much time in Penn just like last year and that state is going to dog him. There's just too much voter fruad to win that state. The SE and SW corners are the only places he loses.

[Phantom Lord]

Dick Morris predicting a Bush win means Kerry will win.

[anniegetyourgun]

Posted here.

[Sam Cree]

Oh-oh!

[el_texicano]

Oh well...even a stopped clock is right twice in a day.

[mlbford2]

I agree with DM's logic on this piece. War on terror and Iraq is front and center. The Q that voters are asking themselves is , 'can Kerri handle this job'. Most folks think Kerri is too lacy for this tough job.

[Rutles4Ever]

Tradesports is only reflecting what most of us see going on here:

A lot of confidence and enthusiasm, followed by realization that the polls are just too damn close to all be wrong.

When we consider just how crucial this vote is to "winning" the War on Terror, the notion that half the population still does not get it, sends a chill down my spine...

[Dane]

Tradesports is based out of Dublin, Ireland, and can be prone to worldwide manipulation.

[ConservativeGreek]

Good piece.
Thanks.....by the way he got the Schlickmeister elected didn't he?

[Pitiricus]

Well, not exactly... Don Luskin on NRO has a good analysis of somebody trying to fix allmarkets (Tradesports, Iowa electrobic markets etc.) at the same moment...

[mlbford2]

I trade the financial market and a few of my friends do as well. One guy I know (huge Bush supporter) shorted a large block of Bush contracts a couple of weeks ago. He said the the disparagy between the current price and reality was way off. And prices will callibrate the nearer we come to the end. He was right. I still look at it as gambling though. Too many variables. I'll stick to Dow , SP, Oil and gold futures.

[Texas4ever]

I will be all about the weapons

The weapons that were never there. Remember no weapons of mass destruction. Hmmm what about that CBS.

The weapons our Brave soldiers protected us from.

Who are you going to believe JKerry or the 101stAirborne Division.

I wont believe squat....from Kerry until he signs the ddform180


SIGN THE 180

[Rutles4Ever]

i'm going to read that article. Thank you for pointing it out.

[gridlock]

Then came the "disappearing explosives" story. Kerry's handlers, tacticians to the last, disregarded the needs of basic strategy and hopped on the issue with all four feet, running a TV ad lambasting Bush for losing the weapons after the invasion. Strategically, this flawed decision assured that the final week of the campaign would focus on the areas of Bush's strength and Kerry's weakness: Iraq and terrorism. Tactically, it tied the electorate's confidence in John Kerry to the mystery of what actually happened in an ammo dump in the desert 18 months ago. Then it began to explode in Kerry's face.

A lot of "weak sister" Freepers were all over the President and Rove for not countering the al Qaaqaa story early, and letting it fester for a couple of days before responding. But ask yourself the question, if the White House had quashed that story the first day, what would people be talking about now?

A poker player knows that sometimes it pays to check with a strong hand, to get your opponent to get to a point where he cannot afford to walk away from the pot. Then you bring down the hammer.

A fisherman knows that sometimes you let the fish run with the hook, to tire himself out, before you reel him in and gaff him.

It's all about misunderestimation... It's all about strategery...

[BillCompton]

Morris is an insightful political talent, but prediction elections is not his forte.