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Markets react to China's rate move
www.chinaview.cn ^ | October 29, 2004

Posted on 10/29/2004 4:16:49 AM PDT by snopercod

BEIJING, Oct. 29 (Xinhuanet) -- Crude oil futures fell to a three-week low in New York after China's central bank raised its benchmark interest rates for the first time in nine years, a move that may reduce growth in fuel consumption.

Bond prices fell around the world, sending yields higher. The US dollar strengthened but then eased as investors feared a slowdown in China would weaken growth across Asia and weaken demand for commodities.

US Treasury Secretary John Snow said he was pleased with China's decision to raise interest rates and said it was an appropriate means to cool the country's economy.

He also said increases in interest rates is a useful mechanism in achieving macro-economic objectives.

Japanese Economic Minister Heizo Takenaka said today he did not expect any negative impact on Japan's economy because of the rate hike.

Although the timing came as a surprise, economists had been expecting an interest rate hike at some point.

Many said they believed more would follow but that the increases should not be seen as an attempt to tighten credit:

1."I think the actions they have taken are appropriate. I am pleased to see them using market-based mechanisms -- interest rates -- to deal with these concerns about potential inflation." John Snow, US Treasury Secretary

2."I do not think the rate rise would immediately have a negative impact on the Japanese economy. I would like to monitor the impact of China's overall policy (to cool its economy)." Heizo Takenaka, Japanese Economics Minister

3." It's very likely they will have another 25 basis point rise in the next six months." HSBC

4. "They're gingerly starting to raise rates just to send a signal to banks and depositors ...the move should not been seen as an attempt at credit tightening." UBS

(CCTV.com)


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Extended News; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: china; commodities; copper; energyprices; metals; oil; trade; yuan
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Have any FReepers been to China lately?
1 posted on 10/29/2004 4:16:50 AM PDT by snopercod
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To: BJungNan; TigerLikesRooster

ping


2 posted on 10/29/2004 4:17:32 AM PDT by snopercod (Inflation, it's how wars are paid for.)
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To: snopercod; Dr. Marten
Re #2

China tries to cool things down a bit. As said in the article above, it won't probably have any substantial effect. Just a baby step. U.S. dollar would be coming down in the mean time, though. That could be a problem for China.

3 posted on 10/29/2004 4:25:03 AM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
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To: snopercod
I think it's been China that's been keeping oil prices high, thru very large contracts for oil that were probably negotiated before the run-up, and which caused the run-up in prices. The purpose was to damage the US economy just before the election, so as to ensure Bush's defeat

Look for oil to go back down after the election

4 posted on 10/29/2004 4:27:57 AM PDT by SauronOfMordor (What Is Best In Life? To crush your enemies and see them driven before you)
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To: SauronOfMordor
Re #4

Kerry has more friends outside U.S. than inside U.S..:)

5 posted on 10/29/2004 4:29:49 AM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
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To: SauronOfMordor; Willie Green
Given the massive U.S. trade deficit and federal budget deficit, it's almost a given that the dollar will continue to slide. So how low do you think oil can go?

I saw some recent picture taken in China, and there were new buildings everywhere, but very few signs that anybody was using them. No cars, no people in the streets.

I am very interested in learning if the Chinese economy is "hollow" and will crash like the economies of Malaysia and Singapore did in the 90s.

OHOH, it seems like everything I purchase these days is stamped "Made in China", so their economy certainly must be vibrant.

6 posted on 10/29/2004 4:39:03 AM PDT by snopercod (Inflation, it's how wars are paid for.)
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To: snopercod

high oil prices have been doing the job of higher interest rates.


7 posted on 10/29/2004 6:19:54 AM PDT by the invisib1e hand (do not remove this tag under penalty of law.)
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To: snopercod
Given the massive U.S. trade deficit and federal budget deficit, it's almost a given that the dollar will continue to slide. So how low do you think oil can go?

So, GDP has nothing to do with the value of our stock? Does supply and demand have anything to do with it?

OPEC targeted $25-$28 as their price for oil 5 short years ago. Adjust for the value of the dollar and you have a pretty good idea of what price will give producers a profit. The in-ground supply of oil is not an issue. The cost of production has not gone up 100%.

8 posted on 10/29/2004 6:26:40 AM PDT by the invisib1e hand (do not remove this tag under penalty of law.)
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To: snopercod

Seems like China is truly an economic heavyweight that can set the market's tone


9 posted on 10/29/2004 6:31:52 AM PDT by Cronos (W2K4)
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To: SauronOfMordor
I think it's been China that's been keeping oil prices high, thru very large contracts for oil that were probably negotiated before the run-up, and which caused the run-up in prices. The purpose was to damage the US economy just before the election, so as to ensure Bush's defeat

cOnspiracy theories??
10 posted on 10/29/2004 6:33:05 AM PDT by Cronos (W2K4)
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To: the invisib1e hand
Well, I really have no idea what the price of oil will be next week or next year, or what a "fair" value is.

As for the GDP relationship to U.S. stock values, I take those with a grain of salt since government spending is included in GDP. The more money the government creates out of thin air and spends, the higher the GDP.

That process isn't making money, it's printing it.

11 posted on 10/29/2004 6:34:08 AM PDT by snopercod (Inflation, it's how wars are paid for.)
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To: snopercod
Snope, I just gave you an idea of the ballpark of what it costs to produce oil.

And I wasn't talking about "stocks," I was using the term "stock" as in, a currency is like the "stock" of a nation. Not in a strict sense, of course, but it's a useful analogy.

My point was that GDP is cash flow from which debt is serviced. Debt isn't debilitating if it can be serviced. And any talk of the gross amount of debt must be put in perspective by relating it to GDP.

12 posted on 10/29/2004 6:40:11 AM PDT by the invisib1e hand (do not remove this tag under penalty of law.)
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To: Cronos
Curiously enough on the open this morning, metals stocks, many petroleum stocks and commodity stocks are up, not down.

I was hoping to snatch up some Billiton [BHP] this morning but it has gone up, not down. (Billiton sells "stuff" to the Chinese.)

I often wonder if these announcements of impending doom in the Chinese markets are just misinformation.

13 posted on 10/29/2004 6:43:37 AM PDT by snopercod (Inflation, it's how wars are paid for.)
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To: the invisib1e hand
OK I see what you meant now.

I really have difficulty understanding all this stuff. The only way I can think of it is like the economy were an individual household.

14 posted on 10/29/2004 6:46:10 AM PDT by snopercod (Inflation, it's how wars are paid for.)
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To: All
Maybe this is why the markets are not acting like they were "supposed to" on the China news: US Q3 GDP Grows at 3.7%
15 posted on 10/29/2004 6:48:46 AM PDT by snopercod (Inflation, it's how wars are paid for.)
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To: snopercod
Have any FReepers been to China lately?

I was there in August. I'm always shocked every trip on how much it grows. I go 2-3 times a year. 3 times this year so far. Every trip has turned more fields into industrial parks. I don't know how they are managing to keep the lights on. One day a week, Usually tuesday in Fuyong, the power is turned off. Last trip it was off for 2 days. They are outgrowing their infrastructure in a hurry.

16 posted on 10/29/2004 6:50:39 AM PDT by Malsua
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To: snopercod
The only way I can think of it is like the economy were an individual household.

it helps to get a handle on it to view it this way.

17 posted on 10/29/2004 6:55:17 AM PDT by the invisib1e hand (do not remove this tag under penalty of law.)
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To: Malsua

Thanks. That was the kind of information I was looking for.


18 posted on 10/29/2004 7:21:37 AM PDT by snopercod (Inflation, it's how wars are paid for.)
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To: the invisib1e hand

The only difference being that it's a crime for an individual family to print money in their basement to pay their debts. For the federal government, it's standard policy.


19 posted on 10/29/2004 7:30:14 AM PDT by snopercod (Inflation, it's how wars are paid for.)
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To: snopercod
The only difference being that it's a crime for an individual family to print money in their basement to pay their debts. For the federal government, it's standard policy.

I understand the point your trying to make, but the analogy is far from perfect. A family is subject to its government. The government is the soveriegn of the land. If the family "prints" money, it does so in competition with its government, and a family or individual has no authority to create his own currency within his nation or manipulate the nation's supply of currency.

The government (or its delegate body) has a prerogative and an obligation to manage its money supply for the good of the nation.

Now, obviously you take issue with whether or not ours does so for our good, but that's not my point. My point is that the central bank has the authority to manage the money supply, but no individual sole corporate entity has nor should have such authority.

20 posted on 10/29/2004 8:42:25 AM PDT by the invisib1e hand (do not remove this tag under penalty of law.)
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