WEEKLY STANDARD: Election Predictions!!!!

Weekly Standard ^ | 10/28/2004 | Weekly Standard Staff

[West Coast Conservative]

William Kristol

Bush wins
Popular Vote: 52% Bush - 47% Kerry
Electoral College: 348 Bush - 190 Kerry

Senate: 54 (R), 46 (D)

House: 232 (R), 202 (D), 1 (I)

Dark horse: Tom Daschle loses to John Thune in South Dakota.

Stephen Hayes

Kerry wins
Popular Vote: 50% Kerry - 48% Bush
Electoral College: 291 Kerry - 247 Bush

Senate: 52 (R), 47 (D), 1 (I)

House: 230 (R), 205 (D)

Dark horse: Wisconsin, long regarded as the clean government state, will be so overwhelmed with voter fraud that pundits in 2008 will speak of avoiding the "Wisconsin problem." Bonus prediction: Packers beat Redskins 38-17.

Fred Barnes

Bush wins
Popular Vote: 52% Bush - 47% Kerry
Electoral College: 306 Bush - 232 Kerry

Senate: 54 (R), 46 (D)

House: 234 (R), 201 (D)

Dark horse: Dalton Tanonaka (R) upsets Congressman Neil Abercrombie (D) in Hawaii.

Bonus dark horse: Referenda to ban same-sex marriage win in all 11 states.

Victorino Matus

Kerry wins
Popular Vote: 49% Kerry - 47% Bush
Electoral College: Kerry 285 - Bush 253

Senate: 49 (R), 50 (D), 1 (I)

House: 226 (R), 206 (D), 3 (I)

Dark horse: An upset is brewing in the Colorado Senate race--Pete Coors makes a comeback . . . and (t)wins!

Jonathan V. Last

Bush wins
Popular Vote: 54% Bush - 46% Kerry
Electoral College: 293 Bush - 245 Kerry

Senate: 54 (R), 46 (D)

House: 234 (R), 200 (D), 1 (I)

Dark horse: Alan Keyes fails to garner even 35% of the vote in Illinois, dooming the state Republican party for years. And despite losing the popular vote decisively, Kerry challenges the election based on results in a few key states.

Matt Labash

Kerry wins
Popular Vote: 50% Kerry - 49% Bush
Electoral College: 295 Kerry - 243 Bush

Senate: 52 (R), 47 (D), 1 (I)

House: 234 (R) - 201 (D)

Dark horse: Barack Obama suffers devastating election-day backlash. Alan Keyes loses by a mere 47 points.

Terry Eastland

Bush wins
Popular Vote: 50% Bush - 49% Kerry
Electoral College: 296 Bush -242 Kerry

Senate: 543 (R), 46 (D), 1 (I)

House: 230 (R), 205 (D)

Dark horse: Kerry takes Florida and Pennsylvania, but the Midwest goes for Bush as values voters decide the election--at least on the initial count. Kerry goes to court in states where the margin of victory in each is less than 537 votes: Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. Chaos ensues as lawyers take over, but only Minnesota shifts to Kerry, making the final tally 286-252.

David Tell

Bush wins
Popular Vote: Bush 48.8% - Kerry 49.4%
Electoral College count known on 11/3/04: Bush 232 - Kerry 231
Electoral College on 1/20/05: Bush 270 - Kerry 267

Senate: 52 (R), 47 (D), 1 (I)

House: 231 (R), 203 (D), 1 (I)

Dark horse: Some combination of (A) logistical difficulties produced by absentee, provisional, and mail-in ballots; (B) statutorily required recounts; (C) partisan litigation; and (D) Hawaii's time zone will delay the final Electoral College count for at least a week. A "faithless elector" in West Virginia robs Bush of one vote to which he would otherwise be entitled. Democrats in Congress begin a major push to abolish the Electoral College. Defeated for reelection, former Sen. Tom Daschle of South Dakota is no longer around to stop them.

Katherine Mangu-Ward

Bush wins
Popular Vote: 50% Bush - 50% Kerry
Electoral College: 269 Bush - 269 Kerry--Republican House decides for Bush

Senate: 51 (D), 49 (R)

House: Republicans retain control (who knows by how much) but I predict an upset in Vermont, knocking Bernie Sanders out of his seat and finally eliminating the irritating "1" in the "Other" category in all these tallies

Dark horse: Hillary Clinton for VP. Obviously, this is a very dark horse. But here's how it's possible: When the House decides the outcome for president (as it will in the event of an Electoral College tie), the Senate chooses the vice president. But it's not the current Senate that decides, it's the newly elected Senate. I predict that Democrats take control of the Senate, ditch Edwards, and install Hillary, thus giving her a fantastic (if unorthodox) launch pad for her 2008 presidential campaign.

Richard Starr

Bush wins
Popular Vote: 49.9% Bush - 49.1% Kerry
Electoral College: 283 Bush - 255 Kerry

Senate: 50 (R), 50 (D)

House: 228 (R) 206 (D)

Dark horse: Kerry calls off the lawyers and doesn't litigate the outcome.

David Skinner

Bush wins
Popular Vote: 51% Bush - 49% Kerry
Electoral College: 271 Bush - 267 Kerry

Senate: 54 (R), 46 (D)

House: 234 (R), 200 (D), 1 (I)

Dark horse: In District 8 of Virginia, Jim Moran will lose. I've seen no polls on this, and Moran has had more money to spend than his challenger, Lisa Marie Cheney, an unknown whose only TV ad is mediocre. But here's the thing: Every local voter I know who has an opinion of Moran has a negative opinion of him.

Matthew Continetti

Bush wins
Popular Vote: 50% Bush - 49% Kerry
Electoral College: Bush 281 - Kerry 257.

Senate: 51 (R), 48 (D), 1 (I)

House: 233 (R), 202 (D)

Dark horse: Swift Boat Veteran for Truth John O'Neill emerges as frontrunner for the 2008 Republican nomination.

Rachel DiCarlo

Bush wins
Popular Vote: 51% Bush - 48% Kerry
Electoral College: 298 Bush - 240 Kerry

Senate: 53 (R), 46 (D), 1 (I)

House: 228 (R), 206 (D), 1 (I)

Dark horse: Thune pulls it off in South Dakota.

Michael Goldfarb

Bush wins
Popular Vote: 50% Bush - 49% Kerry
Electoral College: 297 Bush - 241 Kerry

Senate: 53 (R), 46 (D), 1 (I)

House: 235 (R), 200 (D)

Dark horse: Bush will win my home state, the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.

Duncan Currie

Bush wins
Popular Vote: 52% Bush - 47% Kerry
Electoral College: 286 Bush -252 Kerry

Senate: 54 (R), 45 (D), 1 (I)

House: 229 (R), 207 (D), 1 (I)

Dark horse: John Thune takes down Tom Daschle in South Dakota. Oh, and whatever happens on election night, Terry McAuliffe will spin it as "a very good night for Democrats" (or something like that).

[Blogger]

Will he move back to Maryland after the election or do you think that he's going to stay in the Land of Lincoln?

[EternalVigilance]

No, as I have said all along, he has made his firm commitment to Illinois and Illinoisans for the long haul.

[A CA Guy]

Great, my hopes for him there were for liberals to hear his points of view and to learn.

Even if he went there and gained 3% more people to the conservative side, then he reached tens of thousands.

What he is doing and has done there absolutely mattered for the good of that state and also our nation.

He's a very good man.

[Anti-Christ is Hillary]

"John Thune takes down Tom Daschle in South Dakota."

Now they should not tease!!! But boy would that be the greatest coo of the entire election. Dasshole goes down. What sweet dreams and non-stop giggles I would have. I pray for Bush to win and the demise of Dasshole everyday.

[samtheman]

And they accused Roosevelt of stacking the supreme court.

[America's Resolve]

Bump for election night.

(Oh, and Bush by 10+) ;)

[SolutionsOnly]

Who is Victorino Matus and what kind of mushroom is he eating, thinking that the Dems will take the Senate back?

[normy]

Katherine Mangu-Ward Bush wins Popular Vote: 50% Bush - 50% Kerry Electoral College: 269 Bush - 269 Kerry--Republican House decides for Bush Senate: 51 (D), 49 (R) House: Republicans retain control (who knows by how much) but I predict an upset in Vermont, knocking Bernie Sanders out of his seat and finally eliminating the irritating "1" in the "Other" category in all these tallies Dark horse: Hillary Clinton for VP. Obviously, this is a very dark horse. But here's how it's possible: When the House decides the outcome for president (as it will in the event of an Electoral College tie), the Senate chooses the vice president. But it's not the current Senate that decides, it's the newly elected Senate. I predict that Democrats take control of the Senate, ditch Edwards, and install Hillary, thus giving her a fantastic (if unorthodox) launch pad for her 2008 presidential campaign

The Senate is NOT going to go Dem that is for sure. If the Senate did go Dem I am sure they would choose McCain for VP thus giving up another Republican seat and having the Dem gov of Arizona install a Dem in his place. All this is moot though because the Senate will go 54-45-1, Bush wins 52-48 w/ over 290 electoral.